UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez kicks off from Las Vegas with the Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card ABC/ESPN+ at 8:00PM and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10PM EST. This card is loaded from top to bottom and even the prelims feature Robbie Lawler making his retirement against all action fighter Niko Price. The Main Card is headlined by arguably the greatest featherweight of all time Alexander Volkanovski against talented striker Yair Rodriguez for the title. The co-main event is just as exciting with flyweight champion Brendon Moreno taking on Alexandre Pantoja for the third time in his career.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez
UPDATE: The fight between Jack Della Maddalena and Josiah Harrell has been cancelled.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: High | -375/+290 | +145/+450 |
| The main event features the return of one of the greatest featherweights of all time back to his proper division as Alexander Volkanovski faces one of the most exciting strikers in all of MMA in Yair Rodriguez. Volk proved in his last outing against Makhachev that his wrestling is some of the best in the UFC and if he wants to prioritize that here he should make easy work of Yair, but I don't think he's going to take that path. I'm expecting a back-and-forth striking affair for most of the round with Volk solidifying them by takedown at the end of them. Yair looked career best in his outing against Emmett, and his takedown defense and grappling game have vastly improved since he was dominated by Frankie Edgar years ago, but I think this is too much for Yair to take on. If it stays standing Yair can land a KO shot against anyone and even in a loss here, I expect him to still score 50+ fantasy points in a decision similar to his loss against Holloway. Stack this fight up for cash games, and I'm contemplating stacking it in one GPP lineup in case all of the massive underdogs around Yair get finished quickly. Official pick - Volk by Decision | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bo Nickal | 9800 | Val Woodburn | Somewhat-Safe | -2,500 | -1,000 |
| Bo comes in as a massive favorite against late replacement Val Woodburn, but from what we've seen he's worth every dollar of his $9800 salary. My only question mark with Bo is he hasn't been hit in any of his fights so we don't know how his durability will be. Bo is a lock for 100+ pts in a win, but my only concern is that he doesn't get enough time in the cage to score over 110 that he'll likely need to pay off this salary with other -500 favorites priced cheaper than him. I'll probably have Bo in 40% of my lineups while mixing him in with the other high-priced fighters. | |||||
| Jack Della Maddalena | 9700 | Josiah Harrell | Somewhat-Safe | -1,000 | -426 |
| JDM is less likely to get the under one minute finish compared to Bo, but I still expect him to get the finish here within the first two rounds. Harrell hasn't lost in his pro career, but this is a major step up in competition and weight for him, so he probably looks out of place. I'm banking on Jack to get it done in the first round. UPDATE: Fight Cancelled | |||||
| Tatsuro Taira | 9600 | Edgar Chairez | Somewhat-Safe | -1,000 | -300 |
| A little less good inside the distance than the other two highly priced options, but he should be able to get a submission here. Taira has been getting people on the ground and hoping on their back with ridiculous speed in his UFC fights so far and I don't expect that to change here. Taira throws enough volume that he doesn't need to win this in 60 seconds to score 115pts and I expect him to come in a little lower owned than Bo and JDM, so he makes for a "sneaky" play up in this range. | |||||
| Cameron Saaiman | 9400 | Terrence Mitchell | Moderate | -560 | -275 |
| Saaiman is another huge favorite, but this matchup could be tricky for him. Mitchell has a 7-inch reach advantage so normally I would think that Mitchell tries to land jabs from range, but all of his past fights have had zero feeling out process. Mitchell has been KO'd in under a minute by Kai Kara France, and he also has 8 straight fights that have lasted under 6 minutes, so he likely pushes the pressure right from the beginning. Saaiman is my least confident play out of the massive favorites but he's still playable in all formats if you like his high-volume style. | |||||
| Yazmin Jauregui | 9300 | Denise Gomes | Moderate | -375 | +140 |
| Yazmin comes in undefeated and is confident in her chin and striking abilities showing she will take a punch to land one. We haven't seen any wrestling out of Yazmin in the UFC yet and although Gomes was controlled in one of her fights on the ground, she has also shown a willingness to land her own takedowns. Yazmin will be the lowest owned of all of the high-priced fighters and possibly the whole slate, so she makes for a great contrarian play on a normal slate, but with the upside of those priced above her and Volk priced below her she is tough to fit into lineups. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brandon Moreno | 8700 | Alexandre Pantoja | Moderate | -210 | +165 |
| Moreno is here strictly for the five-round upside. He has faced Pantoja twice in the past but the most recent fight was nearly five years ago so we can't take much from it but even back then Moreno wasn't afraid to shoot takedowns against Pantoja's submission game so he may look to wrestle more than expected. At his price I think he ends up being one of the more popular plays but there is a very good chance if he wins this fight even in a five round decision that he'll be on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Alexandre Pantoja | 7500 | Brandon Moreno | Moderate | +175 | +325 |
| Pantoja absolutely dominated Moreno years ago so he should have confidence coming in here and while I don't think he wins this fight; I wouldn't be surprised for him to find a submission victory. If Pantoja wins this fight, it's almost impossible for him to miss the optimal lineup so I'll have him in a bunch of my lineups. | |||||
| Niko Price | 8900 | Robbie Lawler | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | -105 |
| Price hasn't looked himself lately, but this version of Lawler that he faces on Saturday is far from the prime version of Robbie that was a fan favorite. I don't think Robbie has the durability, speed, or wrestling that once made him a staple of the division and eventually Price is going to be able to land enough volume to put him out. It'll be sad to see Robbie retire in that way if it does happen, but if I'm picking this fight only with my head and not my heart then I think Price wins this and puts up a pretty good score in the victory. | |||||
| Jimmy Crute | 8200 | Alonzo Menifield | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | +125 |
| This fight just happened on the Volk vs Islam card, but it ended up being a draw, so they are running it back again. The fight hasn't changed too much, but Crute needs to go back to what worked for him in that fight which was to land takedowns and avoid heavy shots. Crute took down Menifield four times in the first round last time and while Menifield was able to scramble back up to his feet that actually helps us on DK. Crute was dropped at the end of the first round in the first fight which stole Menifield the round and he was hurt again in the second round but was still able to push through and win the third round. If Crute doesn't get caught by a heavy shot, I expect him to land 3+ takedowns and win a decision which at $8200 could be enough. | |||||
| Shannon Ross | 7600 | Jesus Aguilar | Somewhat-Risky | +116 | +320 |
| I've been going back and forth on this fight all week and in terms of DraftKings, not a straight pick, I would rather have Ross. Ross is a small underdog priced at $7600 and should have the advantage in the striking department if he doesn't get caught. Ross has a notoriously terrible chin so a stiff breeze could knock him out, but Aguilar has never won a fight by KO in his entire career, so I don't think he has the striking to get it done. Aguilar could just control him on the ground and find a submission like he loves to do, but hopefully Ross can get the win. | |||||
| Jalin Turner | 8800 | Dan Hooker | Somewhat-Risky | -315 | -160 |
| Turner has ballooned up to a -315 favorite in a tough matchup against Hooker, after narrowly losing his last outing against Gamrot. Turner is the longer here so he should be able to land the jab at will and if this fight does hit the ground, he has proven that his submission skills are vastly improving. I don't think Turner has the same power as Chandler where he can KO him with the first clean strike that lands, but if he tries to swarm him with volume like Arnold Allen did, he could find a quick finish. I think Turner comes in extremely high owned due to his -160 inside the distance line so I'll likely be underweight. | |||||
| Esteban Ribovics | 8500 | Kamuela Kirk | Risky | -150 | +110 |
| This fight could be fireworks if it plays out strictly standing but I have a feeling Kirk may try to get it to the ground. Ribovics has no problem throwing a ton of volume, but my only concern is I'm not 100% sold. His takedown defense is actually good. Hopefully he can land one of his power overhands and end this fight early, but if it goes late and Kirk secures a takedown, then it could get greasy. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Hooker | 7400 | Jalin Turner | Somewhat-Risky | +240 | +450 |
| Hooker is used to being the longer fighter and this is a rare matchup where he isn't. If the prime Hooker that showed up against Poirier resurfaces Saturday than we are in for a show. If we get the one who seemingly lost his ability to take a punch than this could be a quick night for him. | |||||
| Robbie Lawler | 7300 | Niko Price | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +425 |
| Lawler has always looked to put on a show for the fans and I don't expect that to change here. Lawler is absorbing nearly 10 strikes per minute in his last two fights combined and that was against coming out of retirement Nick Diaz and Bryan Barberena, so this isn't much of a change in competition. He did win the fight against Diaz, so if he can push this insane pace and actually survive the exchanges, he could eventually break Price. | |||||
| Marcin Prachnio | 7200 | Vitor Petrino | Risky | +195 | +350 |
| Prachnio doesn't wrestle which is a concern after Petrino came out last fight and landed 7 takedowns against someone who does actually wrestle. Petrino was dropped in his contender series fight and didn't do anything to show his striking was elite in his first UFC fight so Prachnio might have the advantage striking. I think if Prachnio wins it is probably a low volume decision, but with so many late replacements just getting a win for $7200 might be enough to win a GPP. | |||||
| Dricus Du Plessis | 7100 | Robert Whittaker | Risky | +300 | +450 |
| Du Plessis is taking a major step up in competition here and Whittaker has turned away everyone not named Israel Adesanya so it's tough to pick him. I'll have more lineups with Du Plessis than Whittaker strictly due to price and the ceiling that Driscus has showed with his volume and wrestling. The line should be closer to +200 than where it is now but even with that said I still think Whittaker wins a decision here and shows why he has been at the top of this division since 2017. | |||||
| Denise Gomes | 6900 | Yazmin Jauregui | Risky | +285 | +700 |
| Gomes is still only 23 years old so while she isn't the shiny undefeated prospect like Yazmin, she still has a ton of potential. In her fights where she has the wrestling advantage, she has shown a willingness to take advantage of opponent’s weaknesses and her striking isn't far behind Yazmin's. Of all of the underdogs priced below $7200 I think she is most likely to win, but I have her below Dricus due to ceiling. | |||||
| Terrence Mitchell | 6800 | Cameron Saaiman | Risky | +400 | +850 |
| Saaiman is still young so maybe he slips up here, but I'm not banking on it. Mitchell's best chance is to be reckless to start the fight and look for a quick finish. | |||||
| Edgar Chairez | 6600 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | +650 | +1,100 |
| Chairez doesn't look completely out of place on the ground so maybe he can survive long enough to find an advantageous position, but again I don't think it happens, so I'll be fading. | |||||
| Val Woodburn | 6400 | Bo Nickal | Risky | +1,300 | +1,600 |
| Bo Nickal hasn't taken a solid punch yet so maybe Val pulls a punch from the heavens and drops Bo, but everything we have seen out of Bo says he's a top 10-15 fighter and I don't think Val is anywhere close to that. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Rodriguez, Pantoja, Ross, Lawler, Menifield, Gomes
Picks and Stats
Alexander Volkanovski | vs | Yair Rodriguez |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 25-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 (1 NC) |
12 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-365 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
Brandon Moreno | vs | Alexandre Pantoja |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 21-6-2 | Record | Record: 25-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
11 | Subs | 10 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Robert Whittaker | vs | Dricus Du Plessis |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 25-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 10 |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
Jalin Turner | vs | Dan Hooker |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-12-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
4 | Subs | 7 |
-315 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Bo Nickal | vs | Val Woodburn |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
| Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-2500 | Vegas Odds | +1300 |
0 | ||
Robbie Lawler | vs | Niko Price |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 29-16-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-6-0 (2 NC) |
21 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
+185 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Josiah Harrell |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 10 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
Yazmin Jauregui | vs | Denise Gomes |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-375 | Vegas Odds | +285 |
Jimmy Crute | vs | Alonzo Menifield |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 12-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-3-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 10 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | +118 |
Tatsuro Taira | vs | Edgar Chairez |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
7 | Subs | 6 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
Vitor Petrino | vs | Marcin Prachnio |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Cameron Saaiman | vs | Terrence Mitchell |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
-560 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
Shannon Ross | vs | Jesus Aguilar |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
+116 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Kamuela Kirk | vs | Esteban Ribovics |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -150 |