We're 50 events into the Vegas event era at the APEX Center in the post COVID world. The smaller cage has held plenty of surprises and will continue to. The favorites are safer this week so we'll need to hit on the underdogs.
MMA Playbook:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev | #N/A | - | Stackability: Moderate | +435/ -600 | +600/+105 |
| Ankalaev is a deservingly big favorite. Thiago just hasn't been the same since Jon Jones kicked both of his knees out. His output is low and he's nowhere near as explosive. Meanwhile, Ank is on his way up and a complete package. He's a cash must but no need to stack. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Miranda Maverick | 9400 | Sabina Mazo | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | +275 |
| Maverick has the bullying style that Mazo has so much trouble with. She's not a sharp technician but just a bull with her head down. My worry would be that Mazo is tough enough to last and the price is high. | |||||
| Matthew Semelsberger | 9300 | AJ Fletcher | Somewhat-Safe | -195 | +110 |
| Semi the Jedi has a reach advantage and wrestling advantage. He's got a couple quick UFC finishes but Fletcher is tougher than those dudes. It's a big price to pay off. | |||||
| Song Yadong | 9200 | Marlon Moraes | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| The UFC is getting its mileage from Marlon. He's on a bad slide facing the divisions elite. Song isn't quite there yet but this is his chance to show he can be. Marlon is dangerous in the early going but gases out and becomes a sitting duck. | |||||
| Sodiq Yusuff | 9100 | Alex Caceres | Moderate | -260 | +180 |
| Super Sodiq hasn't been quite as good as we expected but he still has plenty of promise. This is prove it spot. Good fighters handle Caceres and don't fall in his submission traps. | |||||
| Drew Dober | 9000 | Terrance McKinney | Moderate | -160 | +130 |
| We've been riding the McKinney train but I think this is the spot to get off. Dober is solid everywhere with great cardio, a good chin, and plus power. McKinney melts if he can't find an early finish. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alex Pereira | 8900 | Bruno Silva | Moderate | -200 | -150 |
| This is a good fight for Pereira. He shouldn't have to wrestle too much and both men have big fire power. Pereira has elite kickboxing, though. | |||||
| Azamat Murzakanov | 8800 | Tafon Nchukwi | Moderate | -195 | +120 |
| Murderkanov is taking on a big test in this one. He's older but a legit fighter. To beat Tafon, you just need volume and to stay away from his scary power. | |||||
| Javid Basharat | 8700 | Trevin Jones | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +165 |
| It's remarkable Jones has two UFC wins with how poorly he's fought. The formula of getting beat up and then bailing yourself out with a KO isn't repeatable. Basharat should be able to control this fight. | |||||
| Kamuela Kirk | 8400 | Damon Jackson | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Kirk showed he can deal with submission experts beating Makwan Amirikhani. Makwan has no striking game however. Jackson will have a few more tricks. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 8500 | JJ Aldrich | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +165 |
| The UFC loves giving Gillian people with grappling problems. She's singular in her strategy of wrestling for a submission. | |||||
| Kris Moutinho | 8600 | Guido Cannetti | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +165 |
| I'm not looking to pay this price for a guy that is going to eat as many shots as Moutinho does. He has volume when his chin holds up. I never like guys that block punches with their face as a rule. | |||||
| Karl Roberson | 8200 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +175 |
| Roberson finally picked an opponent he can strike with. That bodes well for his chances of being competitive. He's got the power to wilt Rountree, who's a quiter. | |||||
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8000 | Karl Roberson | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| We never know if Rountree is motivated. He's a good technician but often collapses when opponents are able to check a leg kick. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Damon Jackson | 7800 | Kamuela Kirk | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +300 |
| Jackson could be the favorite here and it wouldn't feel off. He's a slick vet with good BJJ. He's also very durable. | |||||
| JJ Aldrich | 7700 | Gillian Robertson | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +400 |
| Aldrich has flaws in her takedown defense, which is a big problem against Robertson. If she can avoid getting stuck on her back, she has the striking to cause Gillian problems. | |||||
| Guido Cannetti | 7600 | Kris Moutinho | Risky | +135 | +380 |
| I don't get Moutinho getting this much respect for taking a career changing beating. He's got no striking defense and you can't rely on chin alone in the UFC. Jackson is a slippery vet with good jits. | |||||
| Marlon Moraes | 7000 | Song Yadong | Risky | +215 | +380 |
| Moraes still has huge power and finishing ability somewhere in there. Yadong has been solid but Marlon has finished some of the best. | |||||
| AJ Fletcher | 6900 | Matthew Semelsberger | Risky | #N/A | +275 |
| Fletcher is a raw fighter with some decent explosiveness. He'll need to hit something surprising to pull off this upset. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 7300 | Alex Pereira | Risky | +170 | +200 |
| Bruno is at his best in a brawl. He'll try to make it ugly but Pereira is a very crisp striker. If he does though, he's got big power. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 7900 | Dalcha Lungiambula | Risky | +110 | +330 |
| Brundage showed well against the relentless Nick Maximov. Dalcha isn't a great wrestler and doesn't bring much volume. If Brundage stays away from his power he has the inside track. | |||||
| Terrance McKinney | 7200 | Drew Dober | Risky | +140 | +200 |
| Two-week turnarounds have been bad news lately. McKinney is likely going for broke in the first few minutes. That's tough to pull off but scores well. | |||||
Example Lineup:
Live Dogs:
Jackson, Brundage, Canneti, Silva, Moraes, Aldrich
Stats & Picks:
| Thiago Santos | vs | Magomed Ankalaev |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
| 15 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 1 | Subs | 0 |
| +435 | Vegas Odds | -600 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Marlon Moraes | vs | Song Yadong |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 23-9-1 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 (1 NC) |
| 10 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 6 | Subs | 3 |
| +215 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | vs | Alex Caceres |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-12-0 (1 NC) |
| 6 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 0 | Subs | 7 |
| -260 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | vs | Karl Roberson |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| Loading... | Knockouts | 2 |
| Subs | 4 | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Drew Dober | vs | Terrance McKinney |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 23-11-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 6 | Subs | 7 |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alex Pereira | vs | Bruno Silva |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 4-1-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 19 |
| 0 | Subs | 0 |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | vs | AJ Fletcher |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 1 | Subs | 3 |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| JJ Aldrich | vs | Gillian Robertson |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-6-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 0 | Subs | 7 |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| 3 | ||
| Trevin Jones | vs | Javid Basharat |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 4 | Subs | 6 |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Damon Jackson | vs | Kamuela Kirk |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 19-4-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 14 | Subs | 6 |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Sabina Mazo | vs | Miranda Maverick |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 1 | Subs | 5 |
| +270 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | vs | Cody Brundage |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 1 | Subs | 2 |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kris Moutinho | vs | Guido Cannetti |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-7-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 1 | Subs | 3 |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |