It’s another dodgy Fight Night card this week – the kind we love for high variance and unpredictability. No need to be unusually risky as the chalk is limited. The mid-range is particularly untrustworthy this slate, so I lean towards more high-end spending. Let's dive into the UFC Vegas 49 fight card on DraftKings!
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -900/ +600 | -250/+100 |
| This will be a nice test for Makhachaev. Green is live in any fight and will not go away easily. The takedowns will be there for Makh, but we’ll see if he can keep Green down. If Bobby can keep popping back up, the striking exchanges will get interesting. It’s a decent cash stack since Green has solid BJJ and probably lasts – even if dominated from top control. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 9100 | Joel Alvarez | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +175 |
| I’m curious to see where this fight takes place. Alvarez has been happy to allow opponents to take him down with ease, where he’s submitted many from his guard. Tsarukyan has dominant wrestling but his hands have always been good and keep getting better. It should be a fun fight. My only concern (besides a guard sub) is that’s it’s very competitive and doesn’t score well on DK. | |||||
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 9300 | Micheal Gillmore | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -150 |
| Brahimaj will smash if he hits takedowns and works a submission. If he can’t land takedowns he’s going to struggle a bit the way he typically does. | |||||
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 9000 | Rong Zhu | Somewhat-Safe | -195 | +180 |
| As long as Bahamondes can keep Rong from clinching he up too often the striking volume will be there. He also showed there’s some flash in his striking with the wheel kick KO in his last win. | |||||
| Josiane Nunes | 8900 | Ramona Pascual | Moderate | -220 | -125 |
| Nunes is a little tank engine. She cranks hooks with her head down. Pascual is up against it here. We’ve seen Chinese debutants struggle majorly of late. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Misha Cirkunov | 8300 | Wellington Turman | Moderate | -120 | +150 |
| Mostly, I think Turman is just an incomplete fighter who makes poor in-ring decisions. Misha’s best days are behind him but he’s still capable of locking up a neck in scrambles. | |||||
| Gregory Rodrigues | 8500 | Armen Petrosyan | Moderate | -155 | +100 |
| GRod hasn’t had a boring minute of UFC action. He’s big and powerful with good BJJ. Petrosyan’s weak point has been grappling. If Rodriguez can spend time on top, he can conserve his energy and work for a sub. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 8800 | Alejandro Perez | Somewhat-Risky | -275 | +180 |
| JMart has good range and performs well when he stays busy. He’s been a Jekyll/Hyde type in the UFC, though. He’s going to have a technical advantage over Perez, so we’ll see if he can gain some consistency. | |||||
| Ji Yeon Kim | 8600 | Priscila Cachoeira | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +300 |
| Kim’s reach will be her path to winning. She’ll have to play matador as Cachoeira charges her opponents relentlessly. If Kim gets taken down she’s a fish out of water, however. | |||||
| Fares Ziam | 8400 | Terrance McKinney | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +180 |
| Ziam has managed to win two straight competitive fights in the UFC. He’s facing a much more explosive fighter in McKinney, though, and his path would be playing it safe while McKinney tires. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 7800 | Fares Ziam | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +175 |
| The aforementioned McKinney is an explosive athlete in both the wrestling and striking departments. Ziam has struggled to defend takedowns somewhat, so there could be a big score coming here if McKinney manages to win. | |||||
| Armen Petrosyan | 7700 | Gregory Rodrigues | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +180 |
| Petrosyan has tight kickboxing and solid power. If he can keep upright and Rodriguez gases the way he tends to, a knockout win could be in store for the debutant. | |||||
| Joel Alvarez | 7100 | Arman Tsarukyan | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +323 |
| We know Alvarez has a dangerous guard sub game. It wouldn’t surprise me if Arman avoids messing around on the ground. Alvarez showed a new wrinkle in his KO win over Thiago Moises. Maybe his length can catch Tsarukyan off guard. | |||||
| Wellington Turman | 7900 | Misha Cirkunov | Risky | +100 | +225 |
| Turman has flaws but does come to fight. Cirkunov’s chin is all but gone and now cutting to 185 doesn’t help matters. If Turman can land a power shot the fight will change instantly. | |||||
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7600 | Ji Yeon Kim | Risky | +140 | +350 |
| If Cachoeira can use her strength advantage and stay inside Kim’s reach, she’s got paths to win. Kim is easily out-muscled and can’t defend takedowns. Cachoeira also hits harder than most in the division. | |||||
| Rong Zhu | 7200 | Ignacio Bahamondes | Risky | +165 | +450 |
| Rong will probably have a grappling edge. If he can utilize cage control and close striking to beat up Bahamondes, he may be able to squeak a decision. | |||||
| Micheal Gillmore | 6900 | Ramiz Brahimaj | Risky | +300 | +650 |
| If Gillmore can fend off takedowns, he has a chance. Brahimaj has been lost when he isn’t subbing opponents. | |||||
| Alejandro Perez | 7400 | Jonathan Martinez | Risky | +220 | +500 |
| It had been a bad run for Perez until he turned around his last fight with a second-round armbar. He’s out-gunned again here, but his scrappiness and will to win has carried him through in other tough spots. | |||||
PrizePicks:
- Makhachev OVER 11.5 mins
- Cirkunov UNDER 2 TDs
- Bahamondes UNDER 98.5 FTPs
Live Dogs:
McKinney, Petrosyan, Green, Zhu, Alvarez, Turman, Cachoeira
Stats & Picks:
| Islam Makhachev | vs | Bobby Green |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 21-1-0 | Record | Record: 29-12-1 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 10 | Subs | 8 |
| -900 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Misha Cirkunov | vs | Wellington Turman |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 8 | Subs | 7 |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 9-4-2 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 3 | Subs | 0 |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | vs | Joel Alvarez |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-2-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 5 | Subs | 16 |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Armen Petrosyan | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 0 | Subs | 4 |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Rong Zhu | vs | Ignacio Bahamondes |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 12 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 4 | Subs | 0 |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Josiane Nunes | vs | Ramona Pascual |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 0 | Subs | 7 |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Terrance McKinney | vs | Fares Ziam |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 6 | Subs | 4 |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Alejandro Perez | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 23-8-1 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 6 | Subs | 2 |
| +220 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | vs | Micheal Gillmore |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
| 0 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 9 | Subs | 0 |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Victor Altamirano | vs | Carlos Hernandez |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 4 | Subs | 4 |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| #N/A | vs | #N/A |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record | ||
| 1 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 1 | Subs | 1 |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| #N/A | vs | #N/A |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record | ||
| 3 | Knockouts | #N/A |
| 16 | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |