We’re back to the UFC Fight Night product and they’re continuing the trend of auditioning to show iffy talent. There are a few bangers mixed in, though, and the main event could have some fireworks. Ownership will be high at the top end so consider more mid-range salaries.
MMA PLAYBOOK
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +195/ -240 | +300/-150 |
| This will hopefully be an electric main event. Hill is the most dynamic up-and-coming striker at 205 and Walker used to be a highlight reel. Walker has turned pensive since getting knocked out by Corey Anderson and it hasn't been good. His size and power can force opponents to stay on the outside if he chooses not to engage and get a bit boring. Unless the Walker of old walks into the cage, he’s up against it with his shaky chin likely to be exposed. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jonathan Pearce | 9300 | Christian Rodriguez | Safe | -380 | -135 |
| Pearce has made his mark dragging opponents into deep water with pace and grappling. That’s made him a DK smash play. Against a late replacement, he’s a must-play in cash and worthwhile even in GPPs. | |||||
| Chad Anheliger | 9100 | Jesse Strader | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -105 |
| At 35, it’s taken Anheliger some time to earn his UFC shot. He’s on quite the win streak, though. His conditioning and natural Canadian toughness are his calling cards. That’s a problem for Strader. | |||||
| Mario Bautista | 9200 | Jay Perrin | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | +163 |
| Bautista had been putting things together before getting KO’d his last time out. He’s a decent striker and can wrestle, too. Perrin is a step back in competition so he should get back on track. | |||||
| Parker Porter | 8900 | Alan Baudot | Moderate | -280 | +110 |
| Sloppy heavyweight favorites are never a comfortable spot but Porter has a decent shot to score. Baudot just refuses to defend takedowns and Porter has the wrestling to make that a quick problem. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kyle Daukaus | 8800 | Jamie Pickett | Moderate | -290 | +165 |
| Dauk’s main path to big value is his BJJ. Pickett is a big boy and the fight’s at a catchweight up 10 pounds. So it’s not going to be a cake walk. If Dauk gets him down, though, it’s his world. | |||||
| David Onama | 8400 | Gabriel Benitez | Moderate | -150 | +110 |
| I was really hoping we’d get Onama at an underdog price after his competitive debut against Mason Jones. Bookmakers noticed, too, though. Onama's tight striking is a potential problem for Benitez after seeing his chin cracked in his last handful of losses. | |||||
| Diana Belbita | 8200 | Gloria de Paula | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | #N/A |
| Low-level women’s MMA is highly variable. Belbita should have a striking advantage. She’s got solid volume when she can get it off. De Paula isn’t long for the UFC. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 8300 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | -110 |
| Buckley needs to land a one hitter quitter or he goes bust. Good thing his power is scary fierce. | |||||
| Nikolas Motta | 8500 | Jim Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +150 |
| If you can survive the first round with Miller, you have a good chance at turning the tide as he runs out of gas. | |||||
| Chas Skelly | 8700 | Mark Striegl | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +130 |
| IF Skelly can get back to where he was three years ago, he’s a threat to submit Striegl. It’s a big if after that kind of layoff in your mid 30s. | |||||
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 8600 | Stephanie Egger | Risky | -170 | +250 |
| Rose-Clark should have decent boxing advantage. If she can match strength with Egger, then she can piece her up. If Egger gases out then Rose-Clark could find the KO. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 7900 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +240 |
| Alhassan at his best probably has the speed to take out Buckley. Buckley has big power to but gets hit too much. We’ll see if Alhassan has truly rounded the corner back into UFC form. | |||||
| Jim Miller | 7700 | Nikolas Motta | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +250 |
| Even at this age, we still chase Jim Miller first-round finishes. He’s still competitive with the younger but raw fighters of the division. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 7600 | Jessica-Rose Clark | Risky | +150 | +500 |
| Egger would need to establish top position and work for a sub to be of value to us. She has the grappling to do it but Rose-Clark is a tough customer. | |||||
| Gabriel Benitez | 7800 | David Onama | Risky | +130 | +330 |
| Mogley is getting a tad disrespected by this line. He’s a UFC vet and can whip kicks harder than anybody. When he’s gotten into wars his chin has failed him, though. | |||||
| Jamie Pickett | 7400 | Kyle Daukaus | Risky | +230 | +550 |
| Pickett has found a way to win in his last two fights. They haven’t been barnburners, though. He relies on his size and grits his way through. Maybe Daukaus can’t get any grappling going because of that. | |||||
| Alan Baudot | 7300 | Parker Porter | Risky | +225 | +330 |
| Porter is a fairly low-level fighter in the scheme of things. Baudot is worse but could perhaps give Porter trouble if things stayed standing. | |||||
| Mark Striegl | 7500 | Chas Skelly | Risky | +160 | +380 |
| There’s a half-decent chance Skelly is washed after three years off following a serious injury. Striegl is also a bit of an unknown at the UFC level. | |||||
Example Lineup
DraftKings - GPP
Jonathan Pearce - $9,300
Diana Belbita - $8,200
Abdul Rzak Alhassan - $7,900
Jamahal Hill - $9,000
Jim Miller - $7,700
Gabriel Benitez - $7,800
PRIZEPICKS
- Anheliger OVER 47.5 SS
- Porter OVER 1 TD
- Motta UNDER 85.5 FPTs
LIVE DOGS
Alhassan, Miller, Benitez, Walker, Egger, Striegl
STATS & PICKS
| Johnny Walker | vs | Jamahal Hill |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) |
| 15 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 2 | Subs | 0 |
| +195 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Kyle Daukaus | vs | Jamie Pickett |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 0 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 8 | Subs | 1 |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Parker Porter | vs | Alan Baudot |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 5 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 3 | Subs | 0 |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jim Miller | vs | Nikolas Motta |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 33-16-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 18 | Subs | 0 |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Joaquin Buckley | vs | Abdul Razak Alhassan |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 11 |
| 0 | Subs | 0 |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Gabriel Benitez | vs | David Onama |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 22-10-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 10 | Subs | 3 |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | vs | Stephanie Egger |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 11-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 8 |
| 2 | Subs | 1 |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Chas Skelly | vs | Mark Striegl |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 3 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 10 | Subs | 14 |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Diana Belbita | vs | Gloria de Paula |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 5-4-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 4 | Subs | 0 |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Chad Anheliger | vs | Jesse Strader |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 3 | Subs | 0 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jonathan Pearce | vs | Christian Rodriguez |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 2 | Subs | 3 |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Mario Bautista | vs | Jay Perrin |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 3 | Subs | 4 |
| -365 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| #N/A | vs | #N/A |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record | ||
| 0 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 0 | Subs | 0 |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |