The UFC is getting some fights it’s obligated to offer out of the way in the early part of the year here. That makes for a grungy but fun DK slate. Someone is almost certainly coming out of nowhere with a bug score. Embrace some variance.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Hermansson vs Sean Strickland | 7400/8800 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +185/ -225 | +300/+215 |
| This is a good clash of styles and it’s a fight with title implications. Strickland is a literal neanderthal and walks forward swinging like it. Hermansson has steadily climbed the UFC ranks with a grappling based approach. Strickland’s the deserving favorite on volume but Hermansson has shown the knack to pull wins if he can get things on the mat. It’s not a “must stack” but is fine for the discount and extra rounds in cash lineups. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brendan Allen | 9300 | Sam Alvey | Somewhat-Safe | -435 | -110 |
| Allen steps in as a late replacement hoping for a quick win. He’s looked flat on short notice before but it’s of note that this fight is up at 205 so he didn’t have the same weight cut. If he fights with his usual energy he’ll blow Alvey out of the water. Smilin’ Sam just sits and smiles as you hit him unless you wade into his power left. | |||||
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9000 | Carlston Harris | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | -105 |
| Shavkat has hit the ground running in the UFC with a 2-0 start against solid names. Harris seems likely to offer more resistance than those two veterans, however. It’s going to be a fun fight. I Shavkat can continue to utilize his size and aggression he can score well. | |||||
| Julian Erosa | 9200 | Steven Peterson | Somewhat-Safe | -290 | +140 |
| There’s a lot to like about Erosa’s MMA game. It comes with one flaw, however: a glass jaw. All the volume and slick grappling are for naught if you get flat-lined the way he has in spots. Peterson isn’t a necessarily heavy hitter, which is good. Erosa should be the much better fighter so long as he’s upright. | |||||
| Denys Bondar | 9100 | Malcolm Gordon | Moderate | -290 | -120 |
| Bondar is one of two heavily favored UFC debutants. He’s a high-pressure grappler with a mean streak. It’s just icing on the cake that he’s facing Gordon, who struggles with both. | |||||
| Jailton Almeida | 9400 | Danilo Marques | Moderate | -435 | -175 |
| The other pricey debutant, Almeida, also gets a pretty favorable matchup. Marques was able to win a couple of UFC fights off of some low-level wrestling but that isn’t going to cut it here. Almeida is a dangerous submission grappler getting a chance to prove he belongs on the biggest stage. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Punahele Soriano | 8600 | Nick Maximov | Moderate | -190 | +110 |
| Soriano looks to get back on track after Brendan Allen manhandled him. That wasn’t supposed to be able to happen to a beast like Puna. Maybe it was a bad cut or he had an injury in camp. He’s a way better striker than Maximov. He’ll need to land the bigger shots early. Maximov will be looking to wrestle hard from the jump and tire Puna out. | |||||
| Phil Rowe | 8400 | Jason Witt | Moderate | #N/A | +120 |
| The real fight this week was Rowe vs his weight cut. He made weight and didn’t look too bad on the scales. As far as Witt goes, if you can hit him he’s in big trouble. His chin is gone and he doesn’t have the boxing to protect it. | |||||
| Tresean Gore | 8300 | Bryan Battle | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +140 |
| Gore is favored as the more explosive athlete. He needs to show his time training has been put to good use as a fighter with only three full pro fights. | |||||
| Alexis Davis | 8700 | Julija Stoliarenko | Somewhat-Risky | -250 | +300 |
| This is a test of whether Davis is completely shot as a fighter. She hasn’t fought in a year and her best days are behind her. The UFC is giving her a layup against someone who’s only real out is an armbar from bottom. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 8900 | John Castaneda | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +250 |
| Johns has finally been delivering on his potential inside the Octagon. He’s out of a great camp and has plenty of tools. Casteneda is a warrior who eats two to dish one. If Johns gas tank holds he should be a decent play. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 8200 | Chidi Njokuani | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +330 |
| My main concern here is scoring. MAB comes forward like a bull but he’s not that fast and pretty flat-footed. Njokuani will hold a big advantage in speed. If MAB can consistently grab hold of him and grapple he could score better than I expect. | |||||
| Hakeem Dawodu | 8500 | Michael Trizano | Risky | -165 | +350 |
| Dawodu’s speed and athleticism allow him to point fight. That’s never great on DK and Trizano’s karate style throws even more water on things. Dawodu will land a highlight reel KO at some point but I don’t think it’s here. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nick Maximov | 7600 | Punahele Soriano | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +350 |
| Maximov has a ton of confidence in himself taking this fight. He’s a solid wrestler and has worked his BJJ constantly. That makes him live in any fight. In this one, he’ll have to avoid striking with Puna while the hard-hitting Hawaiian is fresh. | |||||
| John Castaneda | 7300 | Miles Johns | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +450 |
| There’s a bit more interest in Castaneda than you like to see for a GPP underdog play. He’s a brawler and can turn the tides when the fight gets ugly. Johns’ style is more controlled but he does get a bit gassed at times. It’ll be a fun one to the end. | |||||
| Bryan Battle | 7900 | Tresean Gore | Risky | +135 | +275 |
| This is a rebooking of the Ultimate Fighter finale after Gore had to pull out. Battle was an underdog prior to the cancelation and remains an underdog here. Both men are raw MMA products so it’s a tough fight to cap. | |||||
| Carlston Harris | 7200 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Risky | +195 | +275 |
| Despite his recent addition to the UFC Harris has been around the block and that confidence shows in the cage. He’s exactly the kind of fighter to derail a younger guy’s hype train. He a Shavkat have remarkably similar styles. The winner could be the one able to impose their will first. | |||||
| Michael Trizano | 7700 | Hakeem Dawodu | Risky | +145 | +400 |
| Trizano’s karate style makes most fights close affairs. Dawodu being in his share of split decisions seems like this one is going to go to the fighter that can convince the tie-breaking judge. | |||||
| Malcolm Gordon | 7100 | Denys Bondar | Risky | +230 | +550 |
| Gordon’s only real UFC caliber tool is his will to survive in the face of danger. Most of his signature wins have come when the fight looked lost. His rangy limbs and timely grappling have been the key components there when an opponent over extends. | |||||
| Steven Peterson | 7000 | Julian Erosa | Risky | +230 | +500 |
| Peterson comes to bang every time out. He might not get the better of the exchanges often but he keeps coming. If Erosa exposes his own chin too much Peterson could crack it. It doesn’t take Nagannou-like power to knock Erosa out. | |||||
| Danilo Marques | 6800 | Jailton Almeida | Risky | +330 | +550 |
| Marques is that gritty vet that figures out a way to win from time to time. Normally, that’s a spot we attack. Though this matchup does not look very favorable for him. | |||||
DraftKings Example Lineup:
PrizePicks:
- Bondar OVER 1.5 takedowns
- Barriault OVER 0.5 takedowns
- Dawodu UNDER 84.5 FPTS
Stats & Picks:
| Jack Hermansson | vs | Sean Strickland |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 24-3-0 |
| 11 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 6 | Subs | 4 |
| +185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Punahele Soriano | vs | Nick Maximov |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 2 | Subs | 3 |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | vs | Carlston Harris |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 7 | Subs | 5 |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Sam Alvey | vs | Brendan Allen |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 33-16-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-5-0 |
| 19 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 3 | Subs | 9 |
| +330 | Vegas Odds | -435 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Tresean Gore | vs | Bryan Battle |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 4-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 1 | Subs | 4 |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Julian Erosa | vs | Steven Peterson |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 26-10-0 | Record | Record: 19-9-0 |
| 11 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 12 | Subs | 8 |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Miles Johns | vs | John Castaneda |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 2 | Subs | 3 |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | vs | Michael Trizano |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-2-1 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 0 | Subs | 2 |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Chidi Njokuani | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 12 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 1 | Subs | 0 |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alexis Davis | vs | Julija Stoliarenko |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 20-11-0 | Record | Record: 9-6-1 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 0 |
| 8 | Subs | 8 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jailton Almeida | vs | Danilo Marques |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 9 | Subs | 5 |
| -435 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jason Witt | vs | Phil Rowe |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 8 | Subs | 4 |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | #VALUE! |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Malcolm Gordon | vs | Denys Bondar |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 6 | Subs | 10 |
| +230 | Vegas Odds | -290 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |