Two important things to note about UFC London. First, it’s in London. Duh. This is the first card the UFC has done abroad excluding Fight Island. That means big time shifts and travel complications. Second, it’s in front of a live crowd. Will that influence the judging, especially for the long list of regional fighters? That tends to get overblown when a group of opposing fans takes issue with a decision but it’s certainly worth noting. We’re also back to the larger standard cage so the finishers will have a greater degree of difficulty.
MMA Playbook:
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +105/ -125 | +275/+140 |
| I love this fight. Volkov is a perennial top 5 heavyweight and Aspinall is one of the most exciting HW prospects in some time. If Aspinall pulls it off it will be behind a big moment. Volkov is a tough dude and works tirelessly to improve his ground game, so that’s a tall order. He also puts up crazy volume for a heavyweight. I see this being hairy in the early going for Volkov, but I think he survives to turn up the heat and extend Aspinall beyond his limits. It’s a good stack if that happens but not if Aspinall gets it done early. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ilia Topuria | 9300 | Jai Herbert | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | -280 |
| Ilia needs to redeem himself after talking some smack about pulling out and then missing weight himself. He’ll be looking to do just that. As long as he doesn’t get stuck at range, he will walk through Herbert. Whether he chooses to wrestle for submission or rip hooks, this one could be over in a hurry. | |||||
| Muhammad Mokaev | 9100 | Cody Durden | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | -125 |
| This is a good landing spot for Mokaev. Durden is a lively fighter but can get out-wrestled, which is a staple of Mokaev’s game. He’ll have to show he can handle the pressure Durden brings, but my guess is he’s ready. | |||||
| Paddy Pimblett | 9400 | Kazula Vargas | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -200 |
| Paddy The Baddy is a brawler. His best tools are in the BJJ world but he’s come along some in the striking. The UFC is giving him the lowest of opponents knowing he’s going to take a loss as a big favorite at some point. Fading him is the play to me until he can prove that he’s more consistent. | |||||
| Gunnar Nelson | 9200 | Takashi Sato | Moderate | -550 | -150 |
| This fight is lined like Gunnar hasn't had a big layoff. His grappling and output probably get it done for him. He's very capable of exploiting Sato’s BJJ liabilities, as well. The risk is that he’s rusty and/or reverts back into the brawling style he had started to get sucked into. | |||||
| Sergei Pavlovich | 9000 | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Moderate | -320 | -225 |
| The UFC has been slow to move Pavlovich along after he came in and didn’t quite live up to the hype. Shamil is beatable but he’s a wily vet. And it’s heavyweight. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Hooker | 8200 | Arnold Allen | Moderate | -105 | +350 |
| Hooker goes to war every time out. If you try to out-volume him, good luck. His chin is generally very tough to crack. He’s super long for the division, too. | |||||
| Arnold Allen | 8000 | Dan Hooker | Moderate | -115 | +330 |
| To beat Hooker, you need to take him down or land a huge shot. Allen has done both to bail himself out of tights spots previously. That’s hard to count on, but he’s got a nose for that kind of thing. | |||||
| Nikita Krylov | 8700 | Paul Craig | Somewhat-Risky | -195 | +100 |
| Krylov should be smart enough and have the BJJ to avoid the Paul Craig trap but I guess we’ll see. I’d love to see Krylov just keep things standing and piece Craig up. It’s not a hard thing to do. | |||||
| Molly McCann | 8400 | Luana Carolina | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +500 |
| McCann’s a finished product and it’s not a great thing. She eats way too much punishment and relies on strength without technique. All that said, Carolina is someone Meatball should ragdoll. | |||||
| Mike Grundy | 8500 | Makwan Amirkhani | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +300 |
| Grundy has the pace and heavy right-hand to be a problem for Makwan. My hesitation is that Grundy is an aggressive wrestler and will absolutely be in the danger zone of the submission wizard Amirkhani. | |||||
| Cory McKenna | 8800 | Elise Reed | Somewhat-Risky | -265 | +300 |
| McKenna is a middling strawweight but should be equipped to get past Reed. If she can wrestle a bit, she could be a worthwhile DK play. | |||||
| Timur Valiev | 8600 | Jack Shore | Risky | -120 | +350 |
| We’re getting an elevated price on Timur and I’m not entirely sure why. Maybe his close win over Raoni Barcelos. His striking is ahead of Shore, as well. This seems like it’s going to be a grapplefest, however, and Valiev has had an issue with his gas tank there before. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Shore | 7600 | Timur Valiev | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +450 |
| This is a bit of an odd price for a hometown favorite. It’s also wrestler vs wrestler so the man with the better gas tank may prevail. I’d give that lean to Shore. | |||||
| Makwan Amirkhani | 7700 | Mike Grundy | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +450 |
| We play Makwan when he’s a dog. The man can snatch up necks in the blink of an eye. He doesn’t have a big gas tank and he doesn’t strike well at all. A lot depends on what kind of training camp he put in. Grundy will wrestle at some point and that’s when he’s at risk. | |||||
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 7200 | Sergei Pavlovich | Risky | +250 | +450 |
| This one’s a double whammy: a heavyweight underdog and a veteran underdog. Both tend to pay off in the long haul. | |||||
| Paul Craig | 7500 | Nikita Krylov | Risky | +165 | +330 |
| Craig is some kind of magician because he’s a garbage kickboxer and can’t wrestle. Yet, he’s pulled off submissions in the UFC again and again. The breakdown on his is the same as it ever was. | |||||
| Kazula Vargas | 6800 | Paddy Pimblett | Risky | +435 | +500 |
| As I mentioned in the Pimblett breakdown, Paddy is going to get upset by a big underdog at some point. Vargas could be the guy but his struggles in defending grappling make that a fairly large challenge. If you can catch Pimblett on the chin, he goes into survival mode. | |||||
| Jai Herbert | 6900 | Ilia Topuria | Risky | +400 | +650 |
| There are no two ways about it, Herbert will need to knock out Topuria to win. He’s got the dynamic striking to pull of that kind of upset even if it’s at very long odds to happen. | |||||
| Luana Carolina | 7800 | Molly McCann | Risky | +120 | +500 |
| Luana was able to stuff Loopy Godinez’s takedowns. That was encouraging but Loopy was late notice from a weight class away and a boxer by trade. McCann is a different animal. What McCann doesn’t do is move her head. You can hit her bell to bell. Carolina’s length is a plus there. | |||||
| Takashi Sato | 7000 | Gunnar Nelson | Risky | +400 | +650 |
| Sato has basically one out and that's his power. If Gunnar the brawler shows up, he's at least a little bit live. | |||||
Live Dogs:
Volkov, Shore, Amirkhani, Abdurakhimov, Vargas, Craig, Sato
Stats & Picks:
| Alexander Volkov | vs | Tom Aspinall |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 34-9-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 22 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 3 | Subs | 2 |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Arnold Allen | vs | Dan Hooker |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-11-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 4 | Subs | 7 |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Paddy Pimblett | vs | Kazula Vargas |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 17-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 7 | Subs | 3 |
| -600 | Vegas Odds | +435 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Gunnar Nelson | vs | Takashi Sato |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 17-5-1 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 11 |
| 12 | Subs | 2 |
| -550 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Molly McCann | vs | Luana Carolina |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 0 | Subs | 1 |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Jai Herbert | vs | Ilia Topuria |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | Loading... |
| 1 | Subs | |
| +400 | Vegas Odds | -550 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Mike Grundy | vs | Makwan Amirkhani |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 10 |
| 8 | Subs | 7 |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | vs | Sergei Pavlovich |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 11 |
| 4 | Subs | 0 |
| +250 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Nikita Krylov | vs | Paul Craig |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 27-8-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-1 |
| 11 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 15 | Subs | 12 |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jack Shore | vs | Timur Valiev |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 4 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 8 | Subs | 2 |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Cory McKenna | vs | Elise Reed |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
| Loading... | Knockouts | 2 |
| Subs | 0 | |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Muhammad Mokaev | vs | Cody Durden |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 6-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-1 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 2 | Subs | 5 |
| -380 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| #N/A | vs | #N/A |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record | ||
| 0 | Knockouts | #N/A |
| 0 | Subs | |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |