This isn’t the most star studded PPV the UFC has ever thrown but what it lacks in substance it makes up for in volume. Nights with more fights are usually better in the regard that lineups are more unique. You don’t have to go out of your way to be contrarian.

 

PLAYBOOK

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker9200/7000-Stackability: Moderate-280/ 225150/550
This is a rematch that had to happen even if it doesn’t come with much fanfare. Whittaker has beaten all other potential challengers. Izzy’s striking is too smooth for Whittaker to likely win a striking affair. Izzy has also been KO’d in the kickboxing world but has looked durable in the Octagon. That leaves a wrestling/control style path to victory. Whittaker is a half-decent wrestler but not someone that’s going to smoother Izzy for three of five rounds. I do think Whittaker takes a more patient approach and the KO may not come for Izzy, at least not early. That also means a slower pace and not a great stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Casey O'Neill9500Roxanne ModafferiSomewhat-Safe-400+180
O’Neil has been all over these girls so far in the UFC. She’s got good kickboxing but her wrestling and grappling control have been what’s getting it done. Roxy has been struggling there lately. She’s tough to finish, however. A lot will depend on whether Roxy gets up to be taken back down often.
Kyler Phillips9400Marcelo RojoSomewhat-Safe-435-150
Phillips has all the MMA tools but he seems to find ways to lose at times. He was on a good run since his UFC debut but hit a speed bump gassing against Raulian Paiva. Rojo will keep coming so he’ll have to show better endurance pacing. If he can hang, or find a finish, he’ll score nicely.
Ronnie Lawrence9300Mana MartinezModerate-310+200
Lawrence has to be a bit careful in the early going but his cardio should be a great weapon here. A finish in the second or high paced decision gets the job done.
Jeremiah Wells9100Blood DiamondModerate-240-165
Wells has a clear wrestling advantage. That could lead to big grappling points or a glut of control time without much scoring. He was very aggressive in his UFC debut so we’ll see if that carries into his second fight in the Octagon.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Derrick Lewis8800Tai TuivasaModerate-170-150
The Black Beast will be looking for another heavyweight victim to add to his list. He's generally too apprehensive and causes the same in his opponents but that's less likely to be a problem here. Tai comes at his opponent with a YOLO attitude and looks to swing. One of these bigs is getting KO'd.
Carlos Ulberg8900Fabio CherantSomewhat-Risky-275-150
Ulberg showed pretty decent striking in his UFC debut but came into his loss to Kenedy Nzechukwu expecting little resistance. The UFC let him pick another layup with Cherant but Fabio isn’t going to lay down either. Hopefully Ulberg learned that lesson.
Jared Cannonier8600Derek BrunsonSomewhat-Risky-160+110
The big question is how much Cannonier can stay off his back. If he does he'll have a good shot at hurting Brunson's weakened chin.
Sergey Morozov9000Douglas Silva de AndradeSomewhat-Risky-210+275
Morozov wants to blanket his opponents with wrestling. Andrade gives up occasional takedowns but generally works his way back to the feet. This is a good measuring stick for what caliber Morozov’s wrestling is.
Renato Moicano8500Alexander HernandezRisky-160+165
Moicano is facing a bad match up with the way Hernandez comes out hard. If he weather's the early storm he's very live. Hernandez has traditionally gassed.
AJ Dobson8200Jacob MalkounRisky-115+130
Dobson is the stronger athlete but doesn’t have great ring IQ. That makes him a variant play for GPPs.
Jacob Malkoun8000AJ DobsonRisky-105+240
Malkoun has been in the cage with explosive fighters like Charles Jourdain and shown well so he’s an interesting underdog.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Derek Brunson+7,600Jared CannonierSomewhat-Risky+140+450
Blond Brunson has been on a roll. Maybe this can propel him to that elusive title shot. His constant wrestling is DK gold if he wins. It takes that persistant pressure for him to keep his chin safe these days, however.
Tai Tuivasa7400Derrick LewisSomewhat-Risky+150+215
Bam Bam is going to wade into the fray like he usually does. Lewis may be more than he bargained for, though. This one comes down to who lands first. Tai's chin is solid but nobody stands up to Lewis's power point blank.
Alexander Hernandez7700Renato MoicanoSomewhat-Risky+140+250
If the version of Hernandez who goes hard out of the gate shows up, Moicano's shaky chin could betray him yet again. I don't have faith in Hernandez consistantly showing up, though. He seems to be at his best against scrubs.
Marcelo Rojo6800Kyler PhillipsRisky+330+600
Rojo goes 100 MPH and Phillips can match that pace. The line is off here just a bit, too. That makes Rojo intruiging for a GPP underdog.
Fabio Cherant7300Carlos UlbergRisky+220+300
Cherant is a good kickboxer but has drawn bad luck in the UFC. He's pretty limited but Ulberg isn't shooting takedowns. Ulberg also pulled a stunt in his debut.
Douglas Silva de Andrade7200Sergey MorozovRisky+175+425
You better be ready for a brawl with Andrade. He’s a gatekeeper but a good one. Morozov is yet to prove his UFC rank.
Nasrat Haqparast7800Bobby GreenRisky+135+400
Haqparast has a narrow window for victory. Green is a slick boxer and opportunistic wrestler. He also fights in a way that makes most fights a close decision. Haq can possibly convince two of three judges with his accuracy.
Roxanne Modafferi6700Casey O'NeillRisky+300+900
Roxy probably needs a hail mary sub like an armbar from guard.

 

EXAMPLE LINEUP

 

 

PRIZEPICKS: 

Kyler Phillips OVER 47.5 SS, Jeremiah Wells OVER 1.5 TDs, Maxim Grishin UNDER 82.5 FPTs


 

STATS & PICKS: 

   
Israel AdesanyavsRobert Whittaker
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 21-1-0RecordRecord: 24-5-0
15KnockoutsLoading...
0Subs 
-280Vegas Odds+225
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Derrick LewisvsTai Tuivasa
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 26-8-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 14-3-0
21Knockouts12
1Subs0
-170Vegas Odds+150
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jared CannoniervsDerek Brunson
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 14-5-0RecordRecord: 23-7-0
9Knockouts12
2Subs4
-160Vegas Odds+140
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Alexander HernandezvsRenato Moicano
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 13-4-0RecordRecord: 15-4-1
6Knockouts0
2Subs8
+140Vegas Odds-160
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Bobby GreenvsNasrat Haqparast
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 28-12-1RecordRecord: 13-4-0
10Knockouts9
8Subs0
-155Vegas Odds+135
4/10Lineup Pool24/10
 0 
Andrei ArlovskivsJared Vanderaa
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 32-20-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 12-6-0
17Knockouts7
3Subs3
-150Vegas Odds+130
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Roxanne ModafferivsCasey O'Neill
$6,700DFS Salary$9,500
Record: 25-20-0RecordRecord: 8-0-0
Loading...Knockouts12
 Subs0
+300Vegas Odds-400
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Kyler PhillipsvsMarcelo Rojo
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 16-8-0
5Knockouts8
1Subs6
-435Vegas Odds+330
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Carlos UlbergvsFabio Cherant
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 5-1-0RecordRecord: 7-3-0
2Knockouts0
0Subs5
-275Vegas Odds+220
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mana MartinezvsRonnie Lawrence
$6,900DFS Salary$9,300
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
8Knockouts4
0Subs0
+245Vegas Odds-310
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
AJ DobsonvsJacob Malkoun
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 6-0-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 5-1-0
3Knockouts2
2Subs0
-115Vegas Odds-105
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Douglas Silva de AndradevsSergey Morozov
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 27-4-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 17-4-0
20Knockouts8
1Subs3
+175Vegas Odds-210
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Jeremiah WellsvsBlood Diamond
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 9-2-1RecordRecord: 3-0-0
4Knockouts1
3Subs1
-240Vegas Odds+195
6/10Lineup Pool3/10