This PPV card is a mixed bag. We’ve got two excellent title fights, as well as some other bangers sprinkled throughout. There’s also an uncomfortable amount of DWCS alums. The Contender Series winners have been solid fades lately. It’s also nice to be free from late-replacement mispricing after last week. The two five-round fights that aren’t must-stacks should also make cash lineups refreshingly unique.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +120/ -140 | +150/+165 |
| This fight is a beautiful microcosm of so many MMA battles. One side has technical savvy, superior athleticism and endurance, and excellent ring generalship in Gane. The other side has the ability to punch a hole in a concrete wall in Ngannou. Not that Francis is slow or technically unsound, that’s just Gane’s bread and butter. Francis would prefer to concuss you in the utmost violent way. There are great storylines leading into this one with two former training partners, both having ties to France, and both with few blemishes on their records. I’m tempted by the discount on Ngannou but do realize that he has to win in the first two rounds to be a smash. Otherwise, it’s likely to be a bit of a hollow score. Gane can score well in wins with some potential grappling, good pace, and (limited) BJJ outs. I wouldn’t stack it as the loser isn’t going to do much for you. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michel Pereira | 9100 | Andre Fialho | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +110 |
| Pereira’s wild man days are quietly becoming a thing of the past. He’s learning to lean on his size and strength. It’s incredible he makes 170 and few fighters can match him in those departments. He also toned down the helicopter kicks and backflips (mostly). He'll just have more advantages than Fialho. There's always inherent some DQ risk rostering Pereira. | |||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 9300 | Victor Henry | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | -115 |
| We love Raoni as a fighter but he’s rarely a DK smash. He’s well-rounded and has good ring IQ. Where he’s lacking is the risk taking. He’s happy to decision someone in an exciting but not wild fight. Expect more of the same. | |||||
| Jack Della Maddalena | 9200 | Pete Rodriguez | Moderate | -365 | -165 |
| JDM put on a pretty exciting fight on DWCS. Maybe take his performance with a grain of salt in that it came over a Swiss striker. He showed good hands amd will likely have the technical edge over ROdriguez who’s raw with only 4 pro fights and more of a junkyard dog. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brandon Moreno | 8500 | Deiveson Figueiredo | Moderate | -180 | +150 |
| Moreno took all the confidence he gained in the first fight and came out rolling in the rematch. Figgy had no answers when someone finally had no fear of his power. Sharps have been saying Figgy’s kryptonite would be a durable wrestler and Moreno has proven that. He’s tired Figgy with constant action and stood up to the damage. It’s good odds that he’s got the formula to be Figs again in an exciting end to the trilogy. | |||||
| Tony Gravely | 8900 | Saimon Oliveira | Moderate | -250 | +180 |
| I’m a big Tony Gravely fan. He fights with pace as a weapon, utilizes wrestling, and his striking has come along well. His chin gets touchy when that pace wears on his gas tank, however. The winner of the fight is a likely must roster. | |||||
| Matt Frevola | 8700 | Genaro Valdez | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | +150 |
| Steamrolla Frevola relies on grit to get it done in the Octagon. That’s been enough against better fighters than Valdez. The problem is that Frevola is prone to occasionally getting sparked right out of the gate. Valdez is a brawler. If Frevola avoids that early KO he should chew Valdez up in a methodical, if not that exciting, fashion. | |||||
| Kay Hansen | 8800 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +275 |
| The UFC is looking to get Hansen back on track with this match-up. Jasudavicius is an older Canadian newcomer. Lotta red flags. For fantasy purposes, the battle is likely to be whether Hansen can put up enough points for her salary. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 8600 | Cody Stamann | Somewhat-Risky | -195 | +330 |
| We haven’t seen Said in some time. He was a prospect but at this point his UFC debut was almost four years ago. Stepping up to Stamann’s level is a major leap. Has Said been in the lab getting his striking game perfectly tuned? Or will he havee ring rust and not be able to handle the wrestling and smothering style of Stamann? I’m not inclined to pay this price to find out. His biggest out is a well-placed kick for a KO. We’ve seen him do that but Stamann’s yet to be KO’d in 24 fights. | |||||
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 8300 | Silvana Gomez Juarez | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +300 |
| Playing Demopolous is more about how low-caliber Juarez is. Juarez got taken down five times and submitted by Loopy Godinez, a boxer, in the first round. Demopolous’s main path is to out grapple and submit opponents. | |||||
| Michael Morales | 8200 | Trevin Giles | Risky | -115 | +300 |
| Morales is intruiging after he used some power wrestling to secure a DWCS win. It wasn’t the most technically sound grappling you’ll ever see but it was effective. Giles is generally too passive when he loses fights. It'll also be curious to see how his chin checks out after a savage KO loss. If Morales can defeat the veteran he has a chance to return modest value. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 7700 | Brandon Moreno | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +300 |
| I have a gut feel that Figgy comes out looking to KO Moreno right off the bat. The weight cut has become too much for him and he can’t hang with someone that has durability and cardio. So he’s a boom or bust play but could offer decent leverage for GPP builds. | |||||
| Cody Stamann | 7600 | Said Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +700 |
| Stamann looks like free money to me in the betting market. Said has some flashy kicks but he rarely fights with striking volume and had trouble with takedowns against Raoni Barcelos. That’s a tailor made dog bet for Stamann. The question will be what kind of scores other dogs hit with on DK. Stamann rarely smashes with that style. | |||||
| Genaro Valdez | 7500 | Matt Frevola | Risky | +170 | +240 |
| Our main interest in Genaro is a one-hitter-quitter knockout of Frevola. Otherwise he’s likely stuck on his back much of the fight. | |||||
| Silvana Gomez Juarez | 7900 | Vanessa Demopoulos | Risky | +120 | +400 |
| A Juarez play is one embracing the variance that is Women’s MMA. Demopolous is fringe UFC material so it’s not an impossibility we see something surprising here. | |||||
| Saimon Oliveira | 7300 | Tony Gravely | Risky | +200 | +380 |
| Oliveira’s DWCS debut left much to be desired. He went to the spinning strike well way too often. Against Gravely that will spell disaster. If he tightens things up, though, the way to beat Gravely is to outlast him. Gravely’s pace wears down his gas tank in the second half of the fight and he enters the danger zone. | |||||
| Trevin Giles | 8000 | Michael Morales | Risky | -105 | +330 |
| Giles path to DK utility is his BJJ. Morales is raw and looked to wrestle in an aggressive way on DWCS. That could give the willy vet the opening he need to attack an arm or the neck. | |||||
| Victor Henry | 6900 | Raoni Barcelos | Risky | +400 | +800 |
| Raoni keeps pulling out unnecessarily close decisions. That is going to bite him sooner or later. Henry’s been around the block and has a lot riding on finally getting his UFC shot. | |||||
Favorite Bets: Stamann +165, Frevola -200, Demopolous -140
Favorite Props: Moreno ITD +150, Gravely ITD +180, Giles via SUB +1200
Live Dogs: Ngannou, Stamann, Figueiredo, Jourdain, Henry, Valdez
Stats & Picks:
| Francis Ngannou | vs | Ciryl Gane |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 12 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 4 | Subs | 3 |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Brandon Moreno | vs | Deiveson Figueiredo |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 19-5-2 | Record | Record: 20-2-1 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 11 | Subs | 8 |
| -180 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Michel Pereira | vs | Andre Fialho |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 26-11-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 | Knockouts | 11 |
| 7 | Subs | 1 |
| -280 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Cody Stamann | vs | Said Nurmagomedov |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 19-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 2 | Subs | 3 |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Raoni Barcelos | vs | Victor Henry |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 2 | Subs | 8 |
| -550 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Michael Morales | vs | Trevin Giles |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 1 | Subs | 5 |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Pete Rodriguez |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-0 |
| 8 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 1 | Subs | 0 |
| -365 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Tony Gravely | vs | Saimon Oliveira |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 21-7-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 9 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 3 | Subs | 11 |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Silvana Gomez Juarez | vs | Vanessa Demopoulos |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 1 |
| 2 | Subs | 3 |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Matt Frevola | vs | Genaro Valdez |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-3-1 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 3 | Subs | 3 |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kay Hansen | vs | Jasmine Jasudavicius |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 7-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 4 | Subs | 1 |
| -235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |