The NFL does its best to “stack the better games” towards the later parts of the day. Not just for primetime but also for the 4:00 PM ET window. But when you make the schedule over the spring, it’s not always easy to predict which teams will be hot. Or when they will be hot. And we ended up with a good one in Hot-Lanta this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have arguably been the hottest team in football. You're going to see them atop a lot of power rankings, and Brock Purdy is playing unbelievable football right now. They’ve been doing that despite losing pass-catchers like Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling, and Christian Kirk. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have been nicked up along the way, while now Mike Evans is set to miss time with an Achilles injury. Yet, they have not slowed down.
Things looked pretty bleak for the Atlanta Falcons early on. If this game were scheduled for Week 2, the 49ers would probably be favored by more than a score. But the Falcons have looked like a totally different team with Michael Penix back at the helm. Stars like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Jessie Bates can make game-changing plays at any time.
🏅 49ers vs. Falcons Expert Pick: Game Total Under 49.5 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
There is a famous thought experiment called the Ship of Theseus. And the basic idea asks: if you replace each part of the ship one at a time until every part has been replaced, is it still the same ship? In the case of the San Francisco 49ers, I’m afraid that the team is not quite the same ship this week as it has been. And that’s why this line is looking a little bit suspicious.
We already talked about how they essentially didn’t have Ricky Pearsall and De’Zhaun Stribling from the jump. Deebo Samuel has been dealing with a hamstring issue, but the big missing piece here is Mike Evans, who is set to miss time with an Achilles issue. He’s been their go-to guy on third down, and Christian Kirk's return doesn't fix that. The return of Falcons star corner AJ Terrell does not help on the outside. They still have George Kittle, but he’ll face a tough matchup with Jessie Bates (and possibly Divine Deablo if he can play). These teams faced last year, and Kittle did not have a single catch despite playing 81% of the snaps.
On the other side, the 49ers defense has been rock solid. They have dealt with injuries up front, but their secondary has been intact and formidable. Both situations could limit chunk plays in this game, while both teams end up relying more on their star running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson. The whole setup sounds like a recipe for the under on the point total, despite how hot these teams have been.
👀 How To Watch 49ers vs. Falcons NFL Week 7
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- When: 1 PM ET on 10/25
- Watch on TV: FOX
- Where to stream: NFL+
🔢 49ers vs. Falcons Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
- Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) vs. Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-102)
- Money Line: San Francisco 49ers -155 vs. Atlanta Falcons +130
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 49.5 (-115) vs. Under 49.5 (-105)
🏉 49ers vs. Falcons Injury Report & Latest News
Brock Purdy has been absolutely white-hot, and he’ll hope to continue that despite the injuries the 49ers have had at wide receiver. As mentioned, they’ve been without Ricky Pearsall and De’Zhaun Stribling; now Mike Evans is out, and Deebo Samuel could be as well. Christian Kirk returns to give them some help, but they will likely lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. On the other side of the ball, we are waiting to see the status of guys like Nick Bosa (knee, calf), Luke Gifford (groin), Upton Stout (shoulder), and Mykel Williams (knee). The defense has dealt with injuries all year yet has kept the train moving regardless.
The Atlanta Falcons welcome the 49ers to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, though they are not without their own injuries. CB Billy Bowman (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, and neither did star linebacker Divine Deablo (forearm). AJ Terrell (groin) is expected back this week and, after missing last week, they are hoping fellow CB C.J. Henderson (groin) is back as well. The weapons on offense are largely healthy, though second-string RB Brian Robinson was limited with a hamstring.
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