This spring names like Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Dansby Swanson will be all the rage. We will spend all spring extoling their talents, their potential to be fantasy difference makers and peeps will be salivating at the thought of adding one of them on draft day. However, recent history is strongly suggestive that if you have the expectation that any rookie will be anything other than a replacement level player in the fantasy game that you will be disappointed.

This whole deal is one of my biggest bugaboos. I spend all preseason trying to talk down the outlook of rookies. I try to warn folks away from counting on rookies. I try to warn folks not to spend too much $ or too early a draft pick on a player who isn’t established. I usually fail to make much of a dent there. Why? Because for every Corey Seager or Trea Turner folks forget the failures of guys like Hector Oliver and Jose Berrios. For every Trevor Story folks forget that even hot starting rookies, guys like

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