Ray Flowers hates Mike Trout, babies and Yoenis Cespedes. Just ask anyone on Twitter who thinks they can extrapolate out 140 characters to mean they understand the full nuance of my thoughts on any player. In order to clear that up I decided to write a full Player Profile on Cespedes. I'll lay out my thoughts in great detail so there will no longer be a misunderstanding when it comes to my thoughts on the player. I don't hate him. I've got nothing against him. I'm not jealous of him. I merely think that people might be overvaluing his fantasy worth and drafting him too highly in 2015.
CUBAN NATIONAL SERIES
* Began playing as a 17 year old in 2003.
* Appeared in 534 games hitting .319 with a .404 OBP and .585 SLG. He hit 170 homers,drove in 561 runners and scored 634 times. Also stole 56 bases.
THE MINORS
2012: Signed as a free agent out of Cuba as a 27 year old with the Athletics. How could the A's not sign him after watching this video, a masterful piece of propaganda? Love the Star Wars scroll too. I mean, who wouldn't?
TOTALS:.333/.455/.500 over 22 plate appearances
THE MAJORS
2012: Had his best season as a 27 year old "rookie." Cespedes hit 23 homers and stole 16 bases while batting .292 with a .861 OPS. He also scored 70 runs while knocking in 82 runners.
2013: His average dipped to .240 and his OPS to .737. He increased his homer total to 26 but he also stole just seven bases while scoring 74 times with 80 RBIs.
2014: Spent time with the Athletics before a trade to Boston. Hit 22 homers, drove in 100 runners and batted .260. Also scored 89 runs with a .751 OPS while stealing seven bases. After the season he was dealt to the Tigers for Rick Porcello (to see more about the righty hurler visit Porcello's Player Profile).
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THE SKILLS
Let's go category by category before putting it all together as we break down the 29 year old outfielder.
AVERAGE
Career best: .292
3-year average: .263
Yes, Yoenis hit .292 as a rookie, but he's hit .240 and .260 the past two seasons. He never walks and his BB-rate has gone down each of the past two seasons (8.0, 6.4 and 5.4 percent). After an 18.9 percent K-rate his first season the mark that last two seasons has been 21.7 percent. His career BB/K ratio is terrible (0.31). His BABIP over three seasons is .297, though he's failed to reach that mark the last two seasons (.274 and .293). His line drive rate for his career is 18.2 percent, below the 19-20 percent threshold of league average. He's extremely unlikely to hit .290 again given his approach. He might come within .025 points of that mark in 2015.
HOME RUNS
Career best: 26
3-year average: 24
Yes he hits long homers. Yes he's winning homer contests. No, he's not an elite homer bat.
FACT - He's never hit 27 homers in a season.
FACT - He's had one 25 homer season.
FACT - He's tied for just 25th in homers the past three seasons with 71. That's one less than Alfonso Soriano. He's retired by the way.
Cespedes simply isn't the home run producer that the general consensus believes him to be, not even close. I mean, my goodness, Robinson Cano has three more homers the last three years while Adam Dunn hit 26 more... the same total as the career best single season mark of Cespedes by the way.
Cespedes has had a big fly ball rate the last two seasons at 46 and 48 percent. That should help the homers fly. He should also see his homer rate improve a bit this season if his HR/F returns to "normal" (after posting a mark in the 14 percent range his first two seasons he tossed out there a 9.6 rate last season). With a return to the 14 percent level this season a run to 30 homers cannot be ruled out, but we just haven't seen it yet.
RUNS BATTED IN
Career best: 100
3-year average: 87
Cespedes has had one season of 83 RBIs through three campaigns. Torii Hunter had 83 RBIs last season. Most seem to think that Matt Kemp wasn't very good last season, right? He still had 89 RBIs, two more than the three year average of Cespedes. Yoenis is 19th in RBIs the past three seasons. He has 12 less RBIs than Jay Bruce who was terrible last season. Get the point?
RUNS SCORED
Career best: 89
3-year average: 78
Cespedes is tied for 30th in runs scored the last three seasons with Daniel Murphy and Jason Kipnis. Goodness, he has just two more runs scored than Desmond Jennings. Heck, Yoenis' three year average of 78 runs a season was surpassed in 2014 by Trevor Plouffe (80 runs scored).
It's also highly unlikely his runs scored mark will improve, and he may have a hard time even matching last years total of 89. The last two seasons Yoenis has posted OBP marks of .294 and .301. That puts him at under .300 the last two seasons. You're just not likely to be a big run producer when you never get on base.
STOLEN BASES
Career best: 16
3-year average: 10
The numbers are deceiving. Only once in three seasons has he stolen eight bases. After being caught four times as a rookie while swiping 16 bases, Cespedes has only totaled 14 steals in two seasons while being caught nine times. I assume his managers are saying - don't get hurt out there (more on his health is below). Look at it like this. After attempting 20 steals in his first season he only ran nine times last year despite appearing in 23 more games than his rookie campaign.
HEALTH
Through three seasons Cespedes has been frequently sidelined. In his first season he missed 33 contests. In year two he missed 27. In year three he was on the sidelines for 10 games. Add it up and for three seasons he's averaged 139 games played. That means he's missed an average of 23 games a season, virtually an entire month of action. It's not one issue that keeps coming up over and over, it's just minor bumps and bruises over and over and over. Here is a list of his injuries through the years from Baseball Prospectus.
Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Re-aggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014-08-15 | 2014-08-15 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | Lower Leg | Contusion | Shin | - | |
2014-08-14 | 2014-08-14 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Hand | Contusion | - | ||
2014-07-24 | 2014-07-25 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Thumb | Sprain | Swinging | - | |
2014-07-01 | 2014-07-02 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Thigh | Tightness | Hamstring | - | |
2014-06-03 | 2014-06-03 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Soreness | - | ||
2014-05-05 | 2014-05-06 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Thigh | Soreness | Hamstring | - | - |
2014-04-30 | 2014-04-30 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Thigh | Soreness | Hamstring | - | - |
2014-04-25 | 2014-04-29 | DTD | 4 | 4 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | - |
2014-04-21 | 2014-04-22 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Foot | Contusion | Heel | - | - |
2013-09-28 | 2013-10-04 | DTD | 6 | 2 | Right | Shoulder | Inflammation | - | - | |
2013-09-19 | 2013-09-20 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Shoulder | Inflammation | - | - | |
2013-09-15 | 2013-09-16 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Shoulder | Soreness | - | - | |
2013-07-19 | 2013-07-23 | DTD | 4 | 4 | Left | Wrist | Soreness | - | - | |
2013-06-12 | 2013-06-14 | DTD | 2 | 2 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | - |
2013-05-13 | 2013-05-14 | DTD | 1 | 1 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
2013-04-13 | 2013-04-28 | 15-DL | 15 | 14 | Left | Thumb | Strain | - | - | |
2012-09-13 | 2012-09-13 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Wrist | Sprain | - | - | |
2012-08-03 | 2012-08-03 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Wrist | Sprain | - | - | |
2012-07-09 | 2012-07-13 | DTD | 4 | 0 | Left | Thumb | Sprain | - | - | |
2012-06-14 | 2012-06-20 | DTD | 6 | 5 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | |
2012-06-08 | 2012-06-13 | DTD | 5 | 4 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | - |
2012-06-04 | 2012-06-04 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Knee | Strain | Patellar Tendon | - | - |
2012-05-07 | 2012-06-01 | 15-DL | 25 | 22 | Left | Hand | Strain | - | - | |
2012-03-26 | 2012-03-28 | Camp | 2 | 0 | Left | Thigh | Tightness | Quadriceps | - | - |
You have to be at least a bit nervous when you see a list that long for a player who has only been in the big leagues for three years, don't you?
CONCLUSION
According to Howard Bender's Mock Draft Army, Cespedes has an ADP right now of 51.6. How anyone thinks that Cespedes is a top-50 player is beyond me. His batting average will likely stink. He's no longer stealing bases. While his counting stats in homers, RBIs and runs scored are really good, not one of those marks is elite, and there's little in the way of growth to suggest that will change significantly in 2015. Cespedes is a solid option in the outfield no doubt, but given his draft day cost he's very likely to end up disappointing owners in 2015 when they can take guys like Jay Bruce (74.3), Marcell Ozuna (95.6), Jorge Soler (99.3) and Mark Trumbo (99.7) much later on draft day.
10 team lg: His deficiencies are pretty glaring in this shallow setup. I'm not saying that a guy like Marlon Byrd is better, but if Marlon is on waivers why would you spend an upper level pick on Cespedes?
12 team lg: In a five outfielder league Cespedes is an ideal OF3 and a passable OF2. Drafting him as an OF1 is nuts while slotting him as an OF2 is still a bit risky.
15 team lg: Get your counting stats with Cespedes. Make sure you have outfield depth though if you roster him because even if he's successful the ever present injury situation is an issue. Building outfield depth should still be a priority..
AL-only: His power bat makes him a solid target. You will have to find your average and speed elsewhere though, so even in this deep format it's hard to call Cespedes an elite option.