Jose Quintana has made 87 starts over 90 appearances at the big league level with moderate levels of success. I take that back. The success that he's provided is actually growing from year to year, and that's a very comforting thought. In fact, he was pretty darn successful last season. Can he improve for a third straight year, and if he does how high up the pitching ranks can he move?

THE MINORS

2006: Signed as a free agent by the Mets out of Columbia.

2008: Pitched in 15 games in the Dominican Summer League. He went 3-2 with a 1.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 76 punchouts over 55 innings (12.4 K/9). 

2009: Appeared in 14 games in the Dominican Summer League. Went 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 50.1 innings. Check out his K/9 mark - 14.3.

2010: Appeared in 20 games making three starts between Rookie Ball and Single-A. He went 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 44 strikeouts over 38.3 innings.   

2011: Pitched at High-A ball making 12 starts in 30 appearances. Went 10-2 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 88 strikeouts over 102 innings.   

2012: Made nine starts at Double-A going 1-3 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHP and 7.6 K/9 over 48.2 innings.

TOTALS: 19-11, 2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.59 K/BB over 300 innings 

THE MAJORS

2012: Went 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP & 5.35 K/9 mark over 135.1 innings.

2013: Went 9-7 with a 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP & 7.38 K/9 mark over 200 innings.

2014: Went 9-11 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP & 8.00 K/9 mark over 200.1 innings.

THE SKILLS

Quintana, who is 26 years old, is better than you likely think he is. He's improved the past two seasons. Let's look into how much.

ERA/WHIP

2012: 3.76 / 1.35
2013: 3.51 / 1.22
2014: 3.32 / 1.24

The ERA is going down, and it's supported by additional data.

2012: 4.23 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA
2013: 3.82 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA
2014: 2.81 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 3.50 SIERA

Who doesn't like that growth? If you don't, well, don't think I can really help ya.

STRIKEOUTS

As a rookie Quintana was a terrible strikeout arm with a 5.35 per nine mark.

In year two Quintana was just slightly better than a league average arm with a 7.38 K/9 mark.

In year three, last season, Quintana was a solid strikeout arm with an 8.00 mark.

WALKS

Shocker... but we see two years of growth. Jose was decent at keeping the walks in check as a rookie, and has gotten better.

2012: 2.77 BB/9
2013: 2.52 BB/9
2014: 2.34 BB/9

Whatever Quintana throws at batters, he gets ahead of them. As a rookie he threw a first pitch strike 61 percent of the time. In year two that mark was 65.9 percent. In year three he improved it to 66.5 percent. 

Combine the strikeouts and walks and you get --- a rising K/BB ratio. He's gone from below average to impressive.

2012: 1.93 K/BB
2013: 2.93 K.BB
2014: 3.42 K/BB

Here are the ranks of Quintana last year (min 162 innings pitched).

ERA: 30th
WHIP: 48th
K/9: 30th
K/BB: 30th

Now let's put it all together. How many pitchers had an ERA of 3.32 or better, a WHIP of 1.24 or lower, a K/9 rate of 8.00 an a K/BB ratio of at least 3.40 in 2014? There were just 15 men who pulled off the trick. Pretty good company for Quintana don't you think?

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BATTED BALL TYPES

The three years.

2012: 1.52 GB/FB, 21.7 line drive rate, 47.2 ground ball, 31.1 fly ball
2013: 1.14 GB/FB, 20.1 LD-rate, 42.5 GB-rate, 37.4 FB-rate
2014: 1.35 GB/FB, 22.0 LD-rate, 44.7 GB-rate, 33.2 FB-rate

Some up and down from year to year, but compare his numbers last season to his career. The two lines are nearly identical.

Career: 1.30 GB/FB, 21.1 LD-rate, 44.6 GB-rate, 34.2 FB-rate

The lone issue here is his 2014 homer rate. After marks of 0.92 and 1.04 per nine his first two seasons Quintana dipped to 0.45 per nine last season. Why? Well we just saw his fly ball rate and that didn't change much last season, so it must be something else. How about his HR/F ratio? Yep, that's it. After marks of 10.5 and 10.2 percent his first two seasons, the number plummeted to 5.1 percent last season. Expect it to increase in 2015, at least a bit. 

PITCH TYPE

According to PITCHf/x Quintana has changed how he attacks hitters. Here's the data.

Jose has dropped his fastball percentage each year. Here are the three numbers: 62.5 percent, 52.6 percent and 45.3 percent. Though his overall fastball usage has gone down, he's greatly increased the number of 2-seam fastballs he has thrown: 1.2, 7.6 and 16.0 percent. By the by, a 2-seamer is a sinking fastball. Where did the 2-seamer pitches come from? At the expense of his slider which he has substantially pulled back on. In fact, the usage pattern is nearly identical, inversely, from his 2-seamer as his slider rate has gone from 16.4 to 9.8 to 1.4 percent. The two seamer was very effective last season as he limited batters to a .246 average, .278 OBP and .397 SLG. 

SPLITS

Here are the career numbers from Quintana.

Home: 12-13, 3.64 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Away: 12-11, 3.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

No change.

Day: 3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.88 K/BB
Night: 3.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.79 K/BB

He's better under the sun.

Pre All-Star: 13-10, 3.19 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.25 K/9, .235 BAA
Post All-Star: 11-14, 3.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.91 K/9, .284 BAA

It's still early to know for certain, but for now he's seemingly better earlier in the year.

vs. left: .268/.317/.338 with 8.39 K/9, 3.33 K/BB
vs. right: .253/.299/.327 with 7.85 K/9, 3.46 K/BB

He's slightly more effective against righties, but he's successful no matter who is at bat.

CONCLUSION

Few pitchers display 2-straight years of pretty much across the board  improvement. Quintana has. Not only has he improved, but his effort in 2014 put him on the cusp of true fantasy goodness. Quintana strikes batters out, for the most part keeps the ball in the yard and does a solid job with the GB/FB ratio. He's also been durable the past two seasons, has little issue with any type of splits, and at 26 years of age it's certainly possible that there might still be another level he could take his game to.

10 team lg: He's a 4/5 starter in this format. You won't have to reach at all, so he makes an ideal target.

12 team lg: If you're like me, and wait on pitching, Quintana should be targeted. He's got the upside of an SP3 but you can draft him later than that. Invest.

15 team lg: Others will be chasing the big names early, and then because of the depth of this format, youngsters like Jessie Hahn and Taijuan Walker later thinking they need to hit a home run to win. Let them. Take the stable lefty from Chicago knowing he could end up as a strong SP3.

AL-only: I'd like to see a bit higher K-rate before investing in Quintana like he's an ace. Luckily for you, no one else will be thinking he's an ace either. Quintana could excel in this format.