Who should you avoid in your fantasy baseball drafts in 2014? Which players are sleepers that you might consider targeting given their below market draft day cost? In this series we'll take a look at each position and give you some names to avoid and some to target.

OUTFIELD

* ADP's taken from the NFBC.

OVERVALUED
 

4214.gifAdam Jones (10 ADP): He's just not a top-10 player. He's never hit .290 in a season. He's had only one year of 85 RBIs. He's only had two seasons of 85 runs scored. He's never stolen 17 bases in a season. He's never had a .336 OBP. He's only had one season with a .500 SLG. Really good and extremely stable? Sure. Elite? Nope.

Jacoby Ellsbury (12): A tremendous talent. He's only averaged 96 games played the last four years. If he plays 150 games you will be ecstatic with his production. Problem is, it's a huge risk to take him in the top-15 overall given the injuries that have been such an issue of late.

9924.gifYasiel Puig (22): He's extremely talented, but boy, is taking him in the top-25 really buying in. You know I'm not doing that. Here are my thoughts, in all their glory, in my Puig Player Profile. Hopefully you will read the piece and get why I'm not a fan of taken Puig this early. Makes all the sense in the world to me.

 

6287.gifCarlos Gomez (23): You can read about Gomez in his Player Profile. Some highlights as to why a top-25 call for Gomez is too much. “He hit .265 over his last 58 games and .248 over his last 72 games” Last season was the first time he hit .265 in a season... he also posted a career best 16.4 percent HR/F mark in 2013 which is light years beyond his 10.0 percent career mark... Gomez has never driven in 75 runs or scored 81 times in a season.” See what I'm saying?

 


UNDERVALUED

6707.gifWill Venable (200): Apparently 20/20 seasons aren't as impressive as they once were. With Cameron Maybin out with injury, Venable is likely to play pretty much every day at the start of the year. Yes  there are holes in his game – he's never hit .270 in a season or had 485 at-bats – but he's still stolen at least 20 bases in 4-straight seasons. He may not be a 20 homer threat even though he hit 22 last season (he hit a mere 18 the previous two year), but he's still a solid guy to target when the rounds start to add up.

Ben Revere (208): He will hit leadoff for the Phillies. He's a career .285 batter. He's hit at least .294 the past two seasons. He's stolen an average of 37 bases per 500 at-bats in his career. A .300 hitter with 40 steal upside should be going earlier than this, no?

B.J. Upton (214): Two things to say. First, he's only 29 years old. Second, he's one year removed from  a near 30/30 season (he was two homers short). He's well worth the risk at this point of a draft.

4905.gifMichael Morse (306): In 2011 he hit .303 with 31 bombs. He hit .291 with 18 homers in just 406 at-bats in 2012. He was injured and limited to 88 games last season, but the Giants plan to play him every day and for his career, per 450 at-bats, he's hit .281 with 20 homers and 66 RBIs... and that's only per 450 ABs. Of course, he's not a good bet to stay healthy long enough to play that many games, so it would be wise not to go crazy and draft him at fifty percent of his current ADP.

7785.gifDaniel Nava (353): He just doesn't get the respect he is do, something I reported on in his Player Profile. Were you aware that Nava had the 8th best average in the AL last season (.303)? Did you know he was 5th in the AL in OBP (.385)? Did you know he had an .831 OPS that was better than Adam Jones (.811)? Nava is going off the board far too late.

 

6834.gifJustin Ruggiano (369): In 2012 he went 13/14 in 288 at-bats. In 2013 he went 18/15 in 424 at-bats. It remains to be seen if he picks up 500 at-bats for the Cubs this season but if he does he's going to have a very valuable fantasy seasons. Per 500 ABs for his career Ruggiano has averaged 20 homers and 18 steals. He's not even being drafted in most mixed leagues.

 


 

Get All of Ray's Picks in the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.




Comments

Jason Schmitz 

I got Ruggiano in my 16-tm league at pick #279. He's my fourth OFer to go with Bruce, Gordon and Rasmus. Pretty happy with that group in a 16-teamer! Hopefully Ruggiano gets some solid playing time this year...

Ray Flowers 

Charles - Thanks for your support, means a lot my friend. I would go with CarGo followed by Braun, one after the other. My rankings can be found in the Draft Guide - 600+ player ranked. https://www.fantasyalarm.com/ray

Charles 

Hey Ray - I really enjoy listening to you and Kyle on my drive home. I know this has probably been answered on the show but would go Cargo or Braun if both were sitting there at #6 overall? It's probably splitting hairs here but I really do believe Braun puts up mvp type numbers, and I'd expect more of the same from CarGo.


Leave a Comment

About Ray Flowers

The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: Mon-Thurs 7 PM, Fri. 9 PM EDT), Ray also hosts a show Sunday night (7-10 PM EDT). Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three.

Ray Flowers on Twitter

I'll be out of the office until Monday, October 27th. Have a good weekend all.