(-325) Team Vitality v Astralis (+230)
(+400) SK Gaming v Rogue (-650)
(-105) Misfits Gaming v MAD Lions (-125)
(+220) FC Schalke 04 v Fnatic (-300)
(-600) G2 Esports v exceL eSports (+375)
Since this is a showdown slate, I am going to give you a little bit of a different look for a breakdown. We are going to go position by position to find edges each team may have and then I’ll give you my picks
Game #1 Team Vitality v Astralis
Cann’s Pick: Team Vitality
Game #2: SK Gaming v Rogue
Cann’s Pick: Rogue
Game #3: Misfits Gaming v MAD Lions
Cann’s Pick: Misfits Gaming
Game #4: FC Schalke 04 v Fnatic
Cann’s Pick: Fnatic
Game #5: G2 Esports v exceL eSports
Cann’s Pick: G2 Esports
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Captain
Favorite: Upset (FNC: $12,000) I like slotting players who are at or near the top of the kill leader board in the captain role. For today, that is Upset. In the new look Fnatic a lot more attention has been put on their top half of the map. Upset has been able to accumulate 36 kills and 49 assists in his 7 games and has helped Fnatic position into 2nd place in the LEC in summer. Upset is best known for his ability to finish kills in scraps and teamfights and I think that will continue today. The aggression of Hylissang and Bwipo will allow Fnatic to start a lot of fights into the struggling S04, and Upset should have no problem finishing up those fights.
Value Pick: Video (MSF: $10,200)
Top Lane
Favorite: Odoamne (RGE: $6,6000) I think there are a lot of top tier top laners you can choose in this slot but Odoamne feels like the safest pick among them. Wunder (G2) has been a punching bag for weeks as teams attack G2 in the top lane and Adam (FNC) is into a tough matchup in BrokenBlade against S04. Looking at Odoamne, he is fourth in kills for top laners (17) but second in assists (43). Rogue performs well into lower seeded teams and SK Gaming is one of the weakest team’s the LEC has had in a while. Look for Odoamne to put pressure on Jenax and Rogue to take care of business here.
Value Pick: HiRit (MSF: $6,000)
Jungle
Favorite: Jankos (G2: $7,600) With all the question marks surrounding G2 at this point, Jankos is one of two players I am not overly concerned with. He is still managing to execute on early game ganks and normally sets G2 up in situations where they should be able to close out fights and games. Unfortunately for him, they have really failed to do so consistently. Jankos has the second most kills (26) and a respectable assist line (45) but the real upside to Jankos is he really shouldn’t lose you point with only 19 deaths in 7 games. The jungler for XL (Dan) have had great performances but widely speaking has been fairly forgettable in his matches so far. I see Jankos being able to set the pace, move around the map, and get his lanes ahead enough to pick up a win.
Value Pick: Selfmade (VIT: $6,800)
Mid Lane
Favorite: Larssen (RGE: $7,800) The rise of European mid laners has begun again. With so many mid laners to choose from, it was difficult to pick one. I think in your selection for this role you will have options. None of them will be as safe as Larssen nor will any of them have his upside. He is second among all mid laners in terms of kills (28) and fifth in assists (30). We see Rogue playing one of the weaker teams in the LEC in SK Gaming and SK have not found a stable mid laner through 7 games which gives me even more confidence to give Larssen the nod today.
Value Pick: Magifelix (AST: $6,400)
ADC
Favorite: Rekkles (G2: $8,200) In my mind, Rekkles is one of the only reasons that G2 is treading water instead of drowning right now. His consistent ability to win his lane by a large margin through in lane trading and farming. If you are a player of this game and play ADC, watch Rekkles. He manipulates his opponents almost as much as he does the wave and it shows in the number of kills (33), assists (32) and gold differential at 10 minutes (+382). Patrik and XL will not be able to handle this G2 bot lane and Rekkles will pick up his stats in this matchup.
Value Pick: Crownshot (VIT: $7,400)
Support
Favorite: Trymbi (RGE: $5,800) Trymbi is not the highest performer in the support role thus far but I gave him the nod on the slate for a few reasons. First, he and Hans sama are so well rounded in their approach to the game. They can have aggressive lanes where they are always trying to fight or more passive lanes where they will pick up their kills later. In both of those strategies, they don’t die. Rogue as a whole have always been good at making the right choice and playing to win the game, not just the current fight. He has a 67% team kill participation as well as a 43% first blood participation rate as well. Great value here and under that $6k bench mark where I start fading supports.
Value Pick: Hylissang (FNC: $5,200)
Team
Favorite: Rogue ($6,000) I think the easiest explanation for this pick is how clinical they are. When they win, it isn’t through some late game throw by the other team. They do it through methodical play and choking the enemy team out of the match. They have the highest early game rating at 73.2 (next closest is 9 points behind them) and they have a GD of +2704 at 15 minutes. They pick up neutral objectives which secures you more points here. Great lock but is on the little pricier side here.
Value Pick: Misfits ($4,800)
Cann’s Example Lineup
Captain (x1.5): Upset ($12,000)
Alternate: Hans sama ($11,700)
Top: HiRit ($6,000)
Jungle: Inspired ($7,200)
Alternate: Elyoya ($7,000)
Mid: LIDER ($7,200)
ADC: Kobbe ($7,000)
Alternate: Jeskla ($6,600)
Support: Hylissang ($5,200)
Team: Fnatic ($5,400)