Matchups
(-176) Misfits v Excel Esports (+133)
(-675) Fnatic v Astralis (+400)
(+161) SK Gaming v G2 Esports (-213)
(-305) Team Vitality v BDS Esport (+220)
(-102) Rogue v MAD Lions (-130)
The LEC saw some thrilling matches in their first week of play. Their “super week” had each team play three total matches and some teams made the most of those three matches. Fnatic and Rogue all look like the class of the LEC while both going 3-0 in their first week. The biggest surprise is the crowned “super team” sitting at 0 wins as they enter into week 2. To think a team who has names like Perkz, Alphari, and Carzzy would be 0-3 seems unbelievable. There is room for struggling teams to bounce back in week 2 but the question on everyone’s mind is, “Will they?” Let’s dive in!
Picks
Game #1: Misfits v Excel Esports
Cann’s Pick: Excel Esports
Game #2: Fnatic v Astralis
Cann’s Pick: Fnatic
Game #3: SK Gaming v G2 Esports
Cann’s Pick: G2 Esports
Game #4: Team Vitality v BDS Esport
Cann’s Pick: Team Vitality
Game #5: Rogue v MAD Lions
Cann’s Pick: Rogue
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Captain
Favorite: Flakked (G2: $11,700) There is a feeling of respect for SK gaming that I don’t believe is legitimate with their win over the MAD Lions last week. Look, the MAD Lions have always been prone to lose stinker games against bad teams and this was just another example of this. There is no reason to believe that SK can keep up the level of play that they have had thus far. SK struggles in farming and rotating their carries around the map. Flakked’s biggest strength is his ability to pick up the gold needed to be strong late game. While Jankos and Caps are making early game moves, Flakked focuses on being a wrecking ball in late game team fights and thus far, they have done a decent job of that.
Value Pick: Larssen (RGE: $10,200)
Top
Favorite: Finn (XL: $5,400) There has been a really unfair narrative written about Finn. Rogue cast him aside when they struggled at the end of 2020 and he was unfairly lumped into the dumpster fire of the 2021 CLG squad. He seems comfortable now on XL and we see this reflective in his stats. Among top laners in the LEC he is second in kills (14), T-4th in team kill participation (67%), and second in team kill share rate (36%). I think he is one of the biggest factors in XL’s ability to beat Misfits on Friday and they will need him to show superiority over his opponent (HiRit) with little to no jungle support early in the laning phase.
Value Pick: WhiteKnight (AST: $5,000)
Jungle
Favorite: Elyoya (MAD: $7,000) This is the best jungler that Europe has to offer right now and it isn’t relatively close. He leads European junglers in kills (15), assists (29), and team kill participation (79%). MAD Lions continue to be a team who flies around the map and focuses on making hyper-aggressive plays. Elyoya leads this outlook but he has the skill ceiling to rarely die while doing it (averaging less than 3 deaths per game). While I see this game going long and eventually Rogue will pick up a much needed late game team fight to win, Elyoya is going to pick up more than enough kills and assists to benefit your team.
Value Pick: Cinkrof ($6,000)
Mid
Favorite: Vetheo (MSF: $7,200) Vetheo is a 1 versus 1 magician. When Misfits draft him into a winning lane and send their jungler to the middle lane early and often, we see Vetheo run away with the game. Misfits are 2-1 to begin their 2022 campaign and much of that is off his 12 kills (T-1 among mid laners), 4 deaths (fewest among mid laners), and nearly 80% team kill participation rate (1st among mid laners). In this extremely back and forth matchup, Friday’s showdown will come down on how well Vetheo can perform in whatever position MSF puts him in.
Value Pick: NUCLEARINT (BDS: $6,200)
ADC
Favorite: Unf0rgiven (MAD: $7,600) I think Carzzy took a lot of flak while on the MAD Lions over the course of 2021 that I think was unwarranted. With that in mind, Unf0rgiven does appear to be the superior bot laner. He is averaging 7 kills, 1 death, and 5 assists per game which is almost unimaginable. What blows my mind even more is that he is only a part of 64% of the MAD Lions’ kills. He has a higher ceiling yet to go and we are only in week 2. I think I grossly underestimated the MAD Lions in terms of where they will end up at the end of the split but for now, we ride the wave with them.
Value Pick: Comp (RGE: $7,200)
Support
Favorite: Hylissang (FNC: $6,200) I would argue with anyone that Hylissang is the most individually skilled support in the league. Yes, players like Kaiser and Labrov are skilled. Hylissang is a support though that doesn’t need to shadow other lanes to start fights or begin teamfights. Hylissang has shown his aggression makes him as much of a carry as Upset and Humanoid. FNC specifically draft in order to put him on picks that allow him more agency to make plays. There should be a relatively big skill gap on Friday in favor of FNC but I will note that $6,200 is too much to pay for a support to me.
Value Pick: Targamas (G2: $5,400)
Team
Favorite: Team Vitality ($5,600) Deciding on whether or not to jump on the VIT bandwagon will be a test of resolve. On paper, they are the most prolific team in the league by a pretty considerable margin. What we are seeing though is that this team is disjointed and most likely believed that they were so much more skilled than their opponents and that is leading to some disappointing losses. Once the engine clicks on though, I think this team will be unstoppable. They have too much experience and have too much individual skill to slump for too much longer.
Value Pick: Rogue ($4,600)
Cann’s Example Lineup
DraftKings Classic / $50,000 Salary Cap
Captain (x1.5): Caps (G2: $11,400)
Alternate: Comp (RGE: $10,800)
Top: Broken Blade (G2: $6,600)
Alternate: Odoamne (RGW: $5,800)
Jungle: Elyoya (MAD: $6,800)
Alternate: Jankos (G2: $7,000)
Mid: Vetheo (MSF: $7,200)
Alternate: NUCLEARINT (XL: $6,200)
ADC: Unf0rgiven (MAD: $7,600)
Support: Targamas (G2: $5,400)
Team: MAD Lions ($4,800)