League of Legends European Championship
Week 5 Day 1
(-1100) Rogue v Astralis (+650)
(-300) Team Vitality v Excel Esports (+220)
(+149) BDS Esports v Misfits (-200)
(+350) SK Gaming v Fnatic (-550)
(-105) MAD Lions v G2 (-125)
There is parody in all leagues in all sports with favorites falling and underdogs rising to the top. There is no exception to that in League of Legends but it feels that in the LEC, parody is the rule rather than the exception. A team will look best in class and then fail to win a game all weekend. Other teams have no wins to their name but have some of the most electric games in the entire league. At the halfway point of the Spring Split, Rogue remains unbeaten and untouchable while every other team feels so evenly matched.
Game #1: Rogue v Astralis
Cann’s Pick: Rogue
Game #2: Team Vitality v Excel Esports
Cann’s Pick: Team Vitality
Game #3: BDS Esports v Misfits
Cann’s Pick: Misfits
Game #4: SK Gaming v Fnatic
Cann’s Pick: Fnatic
Game #5: MAD Lions v G2
Cann’s Pick: G2
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Captain
Favorite: Comp (RGE: $12,000) There are few players in the LEC that are performing on the level that Comp is right now. He is averaging 6 kills and 7 assists per game and has a 76% team kill participation rate. I feel terrorfied picking Rogue here because the skill gap between these two teams seems entirely too wide to not pick him. The price tag is huge but his league high 37.4 FPPG is just too good to pass up.
Value Pick: Vetheo (MSF: $11,100)
Top
Favorite: Alphari (VIT: $6,200) The Finn matchup feels too good to pass up. When both players were in NA in 2021, Alphari consistently came out on top. Alphari seems to be hitting more of his stride as the weeks have progressed and Vitality as a whole have been on an upward trajectory. They face a pretty weak team in XL esports who is coming off an emotional win over Fnatic last week. That matchup was more of a reflection of Fnatic not playing to their strengths (Upset and Hylissang) and XL capitalized on it. Vitality is versatile which should make it easier for them to win in lane and harder to plan for.
Value Pick: BrokenBlade (G2: $5,800)
Jungle
Favorite: Malrang (RGE: $7,200) The stats can be hard to unpack for Malrang. He has a lower team kill participation (68%) but he plays with agency. When you watch Rogue games, you can see how much of an influence Malrang has. He finds the appropriate jungle paths to influence his lanes and expose missteps the opposing players make. He is averaging over 8 assists per game while limiting his deaths to only 2 per game which is best among junglers. This isn’t a terrible price for the average points produced by Malrang.
Value Pick: Selfmade (VIT: $6,600)
Mid
Favorite: Humanoid (FNC: $7,800) Expectations for Humanoid are immense. He is pretty widely regarded as the most talented mid laner in Europe and has the potential to be the next Perkz. That being said, he has very hot games as well as very cold ones. Fnatic are facing SK Gaming who had some really bad performances in week 4. This is especially true for their mid laner Sertuss who is only averaging 19.9 FPPG right now and has some of the worst laning stats in the league. SK also lacks the jungle pressure that is normally the weakness of Humanoid. Big bounceback game for Fnatic after a really tough loss last Saturday.
Value Pick: Caps (G2: $6,800)
ADC
Favorite: Neon (MSF: $7,200)4 I think Neon is a fine ADC. He has had stand out performances at times and can be the guy for Misfits moving forward. That isn’t why I am picking him for Friday though. I am choosing him because he is playing BDS which means he is facing the worst ADC in the league, Mattyx. Mattyx is averaging 16.2 FPPG which is worse than 8 of the 11 supports listed on the slate for Friday. Laning phase should be really easy and Neon and Mersa should be able to seamlessly transition into mid to late game teamfights.
Value Pick: Flaked (G2: $7,000)
Support
Favorite: Trymbi (RGE: $6,200) My $6,000 rule for supports should be tossed out the window for Trymbi. He is averaging more points (27+) than the majority of ADCs (7 out of 10) and mid laners (2 out of 10). The Rogue bottom lane is the most resilient in the league and you can’t really beat them in draft. In game, Trymbi is smart on his roam timings and that lines up his opportunities to pick up early kill participation.
Value Pick: Labrov (VIT: $5,800)
Team
Favorite: Fnatic ($5,400) This is a good price for a generally safe pick. While Fnatic lost on Saturday, I am not panicking too much. They have a strong core of players in Upset and Hylissang. They are all veterans which usually means that as a team they are stronger in objective control and late game decision making. Fnatic coaching needs to focus on building from the bot lane first and have the rest of their draft respond to the needs of those two players. Everything else should fall into place against SK Gaming on Friday.
Value Pick: Misfits ($4,800)
Cann’s Example Lineup
DraftKings Classic
$50,000 Salary Cap
Captain (x1.5): Comp (RGE: $12,000)
Alternate: Vetheo (MSF: $11,100)
Top: BrokenBlade (G2: $5,800)
Alternate: ()
Jungle: Malrang (RGE: $7,200)
Alternate: Selfmade (VIT: $6,600)
Mid: Caps (G2: $6,800)
Alternate: Perkz (VIT: $7,200)
ADC: Flakked (G2: $7,000)
Support: Trymbi (RGE: $6,200)
Team: Misfits ($4,800)
Alternate: Rogue ($5,600)