NFBC Style “Commentary Mock” (Part II)
Secret Mock Draft with Biting Commentary
Earlier this week, I posted the first installment of my self-critique of the slow draft NFBC style “Commentary Mock” I have crashed like John Beckwith and Jeremy Gray crash weddings. See http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/18071/learning-lessons-round-by-round-in-nfbc-style-ldquo-commentary-mock-rdquo-part-i/. To review, the first 4 rounds for me went as follows: 1.14 Votto; 2.2 Kipnis; 3.14 Pence; 4.2 Gordon. Four more rounds are in the books.
Zack Greinke – P – LAD - Given that I had no SP yet (and neither does the guy on the wheel behind me), I had to go starter here. There are three starters I liked in this spot but my pick was Zack Greinke. I recognize that the velo has gone down for three straight years and the ERA of 2.63 will likely rise to around the 3.38 FIP he posted in 2013. That said, his k/bb is always good, he pitches in a great park, plays on a very good team and does not need have the added pressure of being the team ace thanks to Kershaw. All in all, a safe pick to post strong ratios and likely to have around 170-180K (which is still less than either 2012 or 2011).
Jordan Zimmermann – P – WAS - Have I mentioned that l really dislike the 14 slot? Yes? Get on with it you say? Ok, here goes - Not picking again for 26 picks means I needed to add another starter at this pick. For me, it came down to Kris Medlen or Jordan Zimmermann. Medlen is good but the GB/FB ratio took a bad turn and FIP says the ERA is going north. Plus, pitchers not named Maddux who have an average FB velo under 90 are riskier. They just are. JZimm on the other hand maintained his 93.9 average FB velo for two straight years and has seen his GB/FB ratio rise right along with his K's. Will JZimm strike out over 200? No. Will he notch 175+ this year with strong ratios and solid number of wins? Yep. Count me in!
Kyle Seager – 3B – SEA - While many in this draft are saying they do not play scarcity, it sure feels like folks are paying scarcity premiums. So, to join the party, I am going to jump up a round or two and grab Kyle Seager to play 3b. He has averaged 21 HR and 11 SB over the last two years. His BB rate went up substantially in 2013 showing maturity as a hitter. In his age 26 season, he should eclipse the 21HR/11SB marks and even hit for an average closer to .270 or .275.
Starlin Castro – SS – CHC - Getting a solid SS in the 8th round fits a strategy for one who believes in scarcity. Also, I am often saying that players who make the majors at a very young age are special. Starlin Castro is one such player. We forget that despite being around for a while, he is only entering his age 24 season. Given that he a three year average of 76R, 11HR, 62RBI, 18SB and .278, the floor is not unappealing. Put that together with a strong upside and I really like my Castro/Kipnis tandem up the middle.
Four hitters in or reaching their prime, two with high floors and even higher ceilings and two starting pitchers in their prime who throw hard and pitch in good parks and in the NL. Still seems pretty SMART to me.
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