MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 121

Talk about one of the worst UFC cards of the year! Well, here we are, but it is still an opportunity to put money in our DraftKings piggy bank. I actually like this obscure cards more than most, as it allows the legit MMA handicappers to expose value where the commoners wouldn’t look. There are not many high end options available to us that we can put much faith in, and the Live Dogs are in short supply as well, so we’ll need to really dig into this one, and find out what the best lineups to put out there are.

Let’s go fight by fight and see where we can find some value for this card taking place in Sydney, Australia!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The opening bout of the night has fantasy MMA’s worst nightmare, Anthony Hamilton, taking on Adam Wieczorek (AW) in a fight that should have taken place 3 weeks ago, but was delayed due to soccer hooligans getting crazy! Hamilton has an awful chin, and is a high risk play in all formats, but with high risk comes high reward, and I’ll get to that shortly.

Both of these fighters have great Inside the Distance props, and as you know, this is an important factor in our handicapping process. Hamilton has waffled between retirement and fighting over the past 6 months, and that makes me question his desire to be in locked in a cage with another man. If he loses, he’ll hang up the gloves, rightfully so.

From a DFS perspective, this is one we need to consider. AW will be highly owned, and he’s going to cost you $8,700 to roster, and I see this fight as a coinflip, because when these big boys throw down, people go to sleep, and I wouldn’t want to bet on either one of these guys chins. AW’s high ownership makes him pretty unattractive, but I will have some exposure. I also will have some exposure to Hamilton too, as much as that pains me to say that. He has a puncher’s chance, and if he lands one, he’ll pay off very nicely in your GPP lineups. Not interested in cash games though. A risky one, but a high scoring potential, with low ownership, and a cheap price makes Hamilton more attractive than you want him to be. It’s just the way it is.

PICK: Hamilton, KO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Hamilton (7/10): I hate betting on Hamilton’s chin, but the DFS factors favor him nicely in GPP formats. Have at least some exposure.

AW (7/10): Close to a toss up from a DFS perspective in this one, as there definitely is value in AW in GPP’s too, but he’ll be highly owned.

We’ll keep this one quick, because I don’t see much value from a DFS perspective, or from a betting perspective. It’s going to be a fight that most likely goes the distance, as both fighters have seen their fights go to the judges 50% of the time, not a stat to be proud of. Their styles also do not make for a very high scoring DFS fight, so I think it’s best to save our bullets for some other fighters that have a higher upside. From a betting perspective I wouldn’t touch this line either. No value whatsoever.

PICK: Shelton, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

40 year old Alex Chambers (+140, $7,900) enters the UFC cage after a 2 year layoff. She’s taking on Nadia Kassem (-169, $8,300) who is making her UFC debut, and has fought 4 complete bums in her previous 4 professional fights, so please don’t allow that to hold any weight whatsoever. I looked into her previous fights, and the tough part is that you can’t find any footage of her 4 previous fights. So we’re almost flying blind here. We do know for a fact that Kassem is 21 years old, and Chambers is 40 years old! Yes, that’s a 19 year age difference!

She is signed to a 4 fight UFC deal, and she’s fighting in front of her home country, so you can do some simple math and assume that the UFC would like to see Kassem win this fight, and start building up a female star in the land down under. I feel good putting my money behind the fighter that the promotion would like to see succeed. Not to say that anything “shady” is going on, but let's just say that they are going to set up the scenario to favor their protege as much as possible. This weighs heavily on this fight for me, and fills in a lot of the gaps.

Chambers is being brought in as a sacrificial lamb, and I think Kassem will end this one within the first frame. I don’t have a great deal of confidence in this assessment, but I feel pretty good about it when taking everything into consideration. Kassem’s price tag of $8,300 is pretty reasonable if she is going to get us a first round stoppage, which I think is likely to happen. It’s a gamble, but an educated one. I also have noticed that many of the obscure, undercard, female fights are fairly low owned in many larger GPP’s. Lower ownership is good when we are trying to take down GPP’s, and thus, this fight is a nice one to target to try and fly under the radar. I will also have a lineup or two with Chambers in it just to play the super contrarian angle.

PICK: Kassem, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Kassem (8/10): Odds of winning are high!

GPP: Kassem (8.5/10): This is a risky play, I’ll tell you that right up front, but if it hits, it will pay off for you. Play at your own risk tolerance.

Chambers (6.5/10): Just a tiny sprinkle on a LU or two. Nothing too serious.

Snapshot:

Damien Brown (+115, $7,800) is a gritty Aussie who hasn’t been in a fight that he hasn’t thoroughly enjoyed. The guys a pitbull with a heart that allows him to excel in fights that enter the dreaded “deep waters”. This is his best attribute, and if he wants to win, then he’s going to have to dictate the pace of this fight, and where it takes place. That’s a lot easier said than done, especially when you are as unathletic and slow as Brown is. His athletic ceiling, or shortness their of, has always been his downfall, and is something that the UFC will exploit as they place a hard hitting killer like Frank Camacho (-140, $8,400) locked in the cage with him!

Camacho has a solid amount of experience for only having one UFC fight under his belt, as he has fought some legit talent on his path to the UFC. He has heavy hands, and uses his elbows effectively. Combine this with the fact that Brown was KO’ed in his last fight in the UFC back in June against Vinc Pichel. Has his chin had enough time to recover? He’s been in some wars in his career, does his chin continue to bounce back as well as it did in his younger days? All serious concerns to take into account when analyzing this matchup.

Ultimately, I think Camacho will be able to stay off the fence, avoid Brown’s TD attempts, and keep the fight on the feet, and eventually out striking Brown into a TKO stoppage by the third man in the cage. I don’t think Camacho will be too highly owned, as he is still unknown to the casual fan, and is at a price tag that will have the fence sitters look somewhere else. I tend to like this one from a GPP perspective more than most. I am a fan of betting against an opponent’s chin, and this is a perfect example of that (you could also see the Hamilton/AW fight above too). Camacho just needs to land a few clean shots, and it will be a first round KO that will get you 100+ points in your GPP LU’s. The real question becomes; how highly will he be owned? I tend to think he’ll fly under the radar, but if people are also betting against Brown’s chin, then he could be higher owned than expected. We’ll have to see, but I think it’s worth gambling on, as the $8,400 price tag will easily get paid off with a likely 1st round KO!

I also like Camacho from a betting perspective, and will be putting a few units on this fight. I’m either going to place the units on Camacho at -135, or the almost layup of a bet - under 2.5 rounds at -155! Either bets are very nice IMO. Dig in - yum!

PICK: Camacho, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Camacho (7.5/10): I am more confident in this one than the line or salary depicts.

GPP: Camacho (9/10): Reasonable price tag, high likelihood of winning, and good chance of ending the fight in the 1st round - sounds good to me!

Snapshot:

Fight #5 is a heavyweight clash between two big boys that will most likely have someone sleeping with their knees buckled underneath them. Tai Tuivasa (-173, $8,800) is the favorite who’s making his UFC debut in his homeland. He’s a former professional rugby player who made the transition to MMA full time in 2012. He trains with the likes of Mark Hunt, Ray Sefo, and James Te Huna, so you know he’s been tested.

TT is a legit heavyweight prospect, and the UFC is searching for a few good heavyweights to fill the division with. This one also feels like a setup, as the UFC would really like to build some hype behind Tuivasa in Australia, and a thunderous KO win on Saturday would do a lot to fulfilling that desire. Who stands in his way? 8-2 Rashad Coulter who will weigh about 20 pounds lighter than Tuivasa on fight night, which will be a factor in determining where this fight takes place. Coulter will not be able to have his way with TT against the cage, as he’d like to dirty box the Aussie against the cage, and make it a grinding fight where he’d hopefully eventually land an elbow that cuts Tuivasa, or knocks him out. Tuivasa’s size advantage will allow him to keep the fight in the center of the cage, throwing big shots, and eventually KO’ing the smaller Coulter.

From a DFS perspective I think this is a pretty good fight to target, as this one will end inside the distance. There are a lot of unknowns in both these fighters though, so I would not target either of them for your Cash LU’s. They are both good GPP plays, and I’d give the advantage to Tuivasa due to the factors mentioned above (extra emphasis on the UFC wanting to build around a TT win in his homeland). Roster with caution, but have some exposure, especially TT. My algorithm also has TT as one of the top 3 projected scorers for GPP’s, and this algorithm has been doing very well recently, so we’ll see.

PICK: Tuivasa, KO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A - too many unknowns, but if you have to, Tuivasa.

GPP: Tuivasa (7.5): I like his odds of winning quickly, but I think he’ll be highly owned, and we don’t know too much about him. If his gas tank is tested, this could be bad.

We’ll keep this one short and sweet, as I don’t think you should have much interest in this fight. Brooks is the 2nd most expensive fighter on the card at $9,400, and I think it will be very difficult for him to payoff that salary, as Lentz is a tough, gritty, UFC vet who is crafty, and can drag these tough fights out to decisions. I think it will be highly unlikely that Brooks will pay off his salary, and I think our money can be spent elsewhere. I also wouldn’t touch Lentz with a 10 foot pole! He’s over the hill, having difficult times making weight, and doesn’t seem to have the desire to compete at the highest level of the sport any longer. If I were going to roster anyone here, it might be Brooks with a stars and scrubs approach, or Lentz with a super contrarian approach. Your call, but I’ll just observe. From a betting perspective this one is also a dog or pass situation. I’ll take pass.

PICK: Brooks, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Brooks (7/10): Not cheap. Find some room if you can.

GPP: N/A

Ryan Benoit (-275, $8,900) is a solid prospect with a very good striking game, and he’s taking a non-UFC caliber fighter in Ashkan Mokhtarian (+221, $7,300). AM’s Fight IQ is awful, and as you know, this is something that I take into consideration when analyzing these matchups. Mokhtarian should not be in the UFC, and I think that you’ll notice this pretty quickly in this matchup versus Benoit.

You definitely want to fade AM, so this leaves us with one rosterable fighter in Ryan Benoit. I think Benoit will keep this fight standing, and will pick apart his foe with jabs and heavy shots. Will he end the fight within the distance? I don’t know. It’s tough to say, as Mokhtarian is a pretty tough and gritty fighter, so he may be able to drag this out to a decision, and this wouldn’t look great on our GPP LU’s, would it? I think from a GPP perspective there are too many question marks when it comes to how the finish happens. I do like Benoit from a Cash perspective though, as I don’t think there is any way that Benoit loses this fight, but I just don’t know if he’ll be able to end the fight inside the distance.

Definitely rosterable in Cash, but you’ll need to pony up for him, and GPP’s I’ll have a little exposure to Benoit, but not a whole lot due to the uncertainty surrounding how the finish happens.

PICK: Benoit, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Benoit (8.5/10): I think this is a layup from a victory perspective, which is what we like in our Cash LU’s, but he isn’t cheap.

GPP: Benoit (6/10): If he can end the fight inside the distance, then I think he scores well, but this one has a good chance of going to a decision, and with Benoit wanting to keep this one standing, this causes Benoit to have a lower ceiling than we want in our GPP LU’s.

Main Card

Snapshot:

Alex Volkanovski (-658, $9,500) is the biggest favorite on the card as he takes on short notice replacement Shane Young (+463, $6,700) in a fight that should be highly targeted in all formats of DFS. Volkanovski is 29 years old and is 2-0 in the UFC, and the UFC is looking to him as a possible super star in Australia, so they want to make him look good in front of his home crowd Saturday night.

Give props to Shane Young for taking this fight on short notice, but I’m afraid that is going to do nothing for him except put him in the good graces of the UFC executives, and get him another few fights in the organization before eventually being cut. Volkanovski is a much better all around fighter than Young, and this will be obvious to see within the first few minutes of this clash.

I really like Volkanovski in all DK formats, but his price tag and high ownership levels should temper your excitement to some degree. I think that Volkanovski can end this one within the 1st 2 rounds, and if so, I think he’ll pay off his steep price of $9,500. If this one gets into the 3rd rounds, and Volkanovski isn’t getting repeated takedowns and advances, and he just keeps it on the feet, then I think he’ll have a very hard time paying off his price tag. I could foresee Volkanovski winning this fight via TKO finish, or I could see him getting repeated takedowns, and advances on his way to a decision victory. Both will produce 100+ points, and the later may produce 120+ points, and we definitely want to be a part of that. Just let it be known that there will be many other DFS players out there with the same mindset. I think you need to have a solid amount of exposure to the Volkan because there aren’t many fighters on the card who can give this level of confidence in a high scoring performance. My algorithm has Volkanovski as the highest rated projected GPP play of the night, with 2nd place being a pretty far distance away. His numbers are impressive, and I think we’ll want exposure to him here with all factors considered.

PICK: Volkanovski, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Volkanovski (9/10): I love his chances of victory, but you’ll need to spend up to get him in your lineups, so you’ll need some lower priced dogs mixed in as well.

GPP: Volkanovski (8.5/10): His high price tag tempers my ranking of him slightly, but I want a piece of the possible 120+ point night here.

This is an interesting matchup that could see this fight take place anywhere inside the cage. Elias Theodorou (-264, $9,000) is a solid favorite over Australian Judoku Daniel Kelly (+212, $7,200). Kelly is 40 years old, and has one of the most awkward, unassuming striking games that will make you scratch your head when you watch him. Elias is also a fairly awkward striker as well, where he uses his footwork, and high pace to jump in and out of the pocket, out pointing his opponents, and often going to the judges scorecards (53% of his fights go to decision).

Kelly is very strong in the clinch, and often gets his fighters to the mat when they least expect it to. With that being said, Theodorou is very allusive, and has a very good defensive striking game where he utilizes his kicks to stay at range, and land strikes that score, but don’t do much damage. I foresee this fight taking place on the feet, with Elias keeping his distance, and trying to win on the judges scorecards. This is a dangerous approach, especially when you are fighting a beloved Australian fighter like Daniel Kelly who will have the crowd, and possibly the Australian judges on his side as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Kelly win a very close and controversial decision over the visiting Canadian.

From a DFS perspective I don’t see this one being a very attractive fight to target. I would avoid both of these fighters in Cash, and in GPP I don’t think they are worth targeting either, although I may have a slight exposure to Kelly due to his low salary, and potential for pulling off a pretty big upset via decision. Regardless, I don’t think either of these fighters have a very high ceiling, and this isn’t what we are looking for in our GPP lineups. Move on, but maybe consider Kelly as one of the few Live Dogs on this card.

PICK: Kelly, Decision, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Kelly (6.5/10): A contrarian play here, as he won’t be very highly owned, and has a chance to pull out an upset at home, but it won’t be very high scoring in DFS if he does.

We finally have a nice close fight to take a look at here. Aussie Jake Matthews (-142, $8,500) has taken a year off, and is moving up to 170 from 155, and is taking on Bojan Velickovic (+116, $7,700) in this welterweight affair. This is a very close fight that could really go either way. Matthews was once a very hyped young up and comer, but he has lost back to back fights against Kevin Lee and Andrew Holbrook. He is an active fighter who is very athletic, but his Fight IQ has let him down in the recent past, and I also don’t like the fact that he really doesn’t train at a top camp, and has his dad train him out of their garage (or basement).

I also really don’t like Bojan’s fighting style either, as he doesn’t excel at any one facet of the MMA game. Can he take the fight to Matthews and rack up some DK points? I don’t foresee that happening. Yes, he does have a shot at winning the fight, and should be considered a live dog, but his ceiling is pretty low from a DK perspective, so he isn’t one to target heavily in your GPP LU’s. You should have some exposure to him though, as he is one of a few “Live Dogs” on this card.

I also think that Matthews has a pretty low ceiling as well, and could easily lose this fight to a tough and gritty Bojan. If he does win, it’s probably by decision, and I don’t think it’s a decision win that would accumulate more than 85 DK points or so. Tough one to roster at $8,500 if you ask me. I will have a minimal exposure to both fighters in GPP, but this isn’t a fight that I’m targeting heavily in DFS.

PICK: Matthews, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A: Too many uncertainties to back either here in Cash.

GPP: Matthews (7/10): Not a ton of confidence in his abilities to rack up points for our GPP LU’s, but if you must, side with Matthews over Bojan.

Bojan (7/10): He is a Live Dog, so we need to keep him in mind when building our rosters, but his ceiling is too low for my liking.

Snapshot:  

This should be one of the more entertaining fights on the card as Tim Means (-224, $9,100) takes on Belal Muhammad (+179, $7,100) in this welterweight bout. Means is a hell of a striker with some vicious knees and elbows inside the clinch, and the ability to KO Muhammad who has an impressive chin and a “never say die” attitude that may be a fault for him in this fight, as he should get beat to hell by the bigger, stronger Means who has a 3 inch reach advantage.

I think Means will be highly owned in all formats, but with the lack of high ceiling fighters on this card, he is one you really need to consider in both your Cash and GPP lineups. Means is taking the fight on short notice, but he’s had enough time to get in pretty good shape, and his ability to strike vastly outweighs Muhammad’s skill set in that same area, and I think this is where the fight will mostly take place - on the feet. Muhammad will try and get this one to the ground, but he’ll find it very difficult to get Means to the ground, especially with his superior athleticism showing through.

Both of these guys have a pretty solid work rate, as they both land over 4 significant strikes per minute. Where they differ is their striking defense, where Means has a big advantage over Muhammad. Means only allows 2.7 significant strikes land per minute, and avoids 65% of the strikes thrown his way, which is one of the best ratios on the card. Muhammad on the other hand allows 4.12 significant strikes land per minute, and only avoids 54% of strikes thrown his way. I think that these stats will show through during the striking exchanges, and you’ll see Means land at a much higher and more successful rate than what Muhammad does.

From a DFS perspective I could see Means ending this one within the 1st 2 rounds, or I could see him winning via a bloody decision. If it goes to a decision, there is a risk that Means only racks up 70-80 points, which is definitely not what we want in our GPP lineups, but I think his upside is too high to ignore, and he should have his way with the Chicago native, Muhammad. I will also have a slight exposure to Muhammad as well, as he would be a HUGE hit in your GPP LU’s if he were to pull something out of his ass and beat means. I like Means in all formats, as he has the talent and striking to win big, but don’t overlook Muhammad’s toughness. My algorithm has means as a top 3 GPP play on this card, so let’s get some ownership!

PICK: Means, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Means (8.5/10): I like his odds of victory, and his floor and ceiling are both pretty high, and his salary is reasonable.

GPP: Means (8/10): He will be very popular on this card, as there aren’t many fighters with his upside on this card.

I’ll be quick on this one, as I don’t see much to write home about here. Rawlings is going up to 125 from 115, where she had a tough time making weight, but her skills aren’t at a level where you should be considering too highly in DFS. Rose-Clark has way too many question marks to roster in Cash games, but I may have some exposure to her due to her low salary and possibility of winning.

I just don’t see much activity in this fight to garner much attention in DraftKings. It most likely will go to a decision, and I don’t think the winner will score over 85 points. I’ll have a small exposure to Bec, and also a small exposure to Rose-Clark, because we need to save salary somewhere, and this may be a place we can save it, and pull out a scummy win - who knows. My numbers have these two as two of the worst GPP possibilities on the card. Just proceed with caution!

PICK: Rawlings, Decision, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Rawlings (6.5/10): Low ceiling, and possibility of losing outright doesn’t make her too attractive in GPP’s.

Rose-Clark (6.5/10): Same here, except we may be able to save some salary and get a scummy decision win, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Snapshot:

The main event of the evening pits the 40 year old, 29 fight veteran, Fabricio Werdum (-347, $9,300) against 32 year old, 18 fight veteran, Marcin Tybura (+273, $6,900). Werdum has been a long time stalwart in the UFC heavyweight division, but I think his age is starting to catch up with him. Werdum is the best heavyweight grappler to ever compete in this sport, and if he can get this fight to the ground, then I’d suspect he’d end it pretty quickly thereafter. Yes, his ground game is elite level, but his striking game has improved drastically over the past few years under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, and Werdum isn’t scared to show it off, although he is smart enough to know when to get the fight to the ground, and work his magic there. Werdum has a great Fight IQ, and this may play a big factor in this fight.

Tybura is a 6’3” 250 pounder who likes to work from top position on the ground, and if he tries to bring the fight to the ground with Werdum, he may find himself going home with one less limb then when he arrived. Tybura isn’t the most technical of strikers, but he has enough power in his hands to end a fight quickly, and his kicking game has improved quite a bit since he made his debut in the UFC back in 2016.

This is a heavyweight bout in the UFC, and as you know, these fights could be won by either fighter due to their heavy striking power. The variance in these fights is extremely high, and this can make for tough fights to handicap. From a DFS perspective I can see both fighters being targeted when putting together your GPP lineups, as there is value on both sides of this one. Werdum is more likely to win this one via submission within the 1st 2 rounds, but I could also see this one drag, and a slow striking pace taking over for 5 rounds, lowering the ceiling of both fighters from a DFS perspective greatly. It is a 5 round affair though, so a decision isn’t a bad thing since we’ll be getting 2 additional rounds to rack up points versus the rest of the card.

I will also have some exposure to Tybura, as he is cheap enough to save some salary space, and will be fairly low owned in my opinion, making his GPP attractiveness even greater. I would have exposure to both fighters in GPP formats, and will most likely lean on Werdum in Cash.

PICK: Werdum, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Werdum (7.5/10): I think he wins, but it’s HW, so who really knows? I like the 5 rounds too.

GPP: Werdum (8/10): This card is pretty shallow, so we need to take our points where we can get them, and Werdum’s upside is high, but he could also lose in shocking fashion.

Tybura (7.5/10): Tybura has a puncher’s chance, but Werdum has many more paths to victory than Tybura does. His low salary and low ownership makes him more attractive in GPP’s, so I’ll have some exposure.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

** Pivot to Bojan ($7,700)

GPP 2