This week we are going to look into players who, based on their ADP, are currently going earlier than they should in drafts. Love/Hate lists have become a big part of the fantasy industry. This week will be the hate side of that. These are players that at their current ADP’s may be players to avoid barring a slide down and here is why…

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (48.7 Yahoo) (42.7 ESPN) (47.90 NFL.com) If you caught the first edition of this report “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: High Fives” you probably could have guessed Matt Ryan was going to make his way onto this list based on my small snippet on him. To repeat from that article, Ryan is a nine year veteran who had never posted above 4719 yards or 32 touchdowns prior to firing up 4944 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2016. He had also thrown 12+ interceptions five years straight prior to tossing just 7 last season. There will be regression this season and that should make you skeptical. Ryan is currently being drafted as the 4th quarterback off the board, a position very unlikely he will finish in. In 2015, Ryan played all 16 games and finished as the 19th quarterback in fantasy scoring. His wide receivers around him (outside of Julio) are far from spectacular. In 2016 the Falcons offense led the league in scoring by 71 points, a number that is far from sustainable. The team as a whole was in an explosive groove; every week putting up points in bunches. The offense scored 540 points as a team, the most by a team since the 2013 Broncos, not something that will be repeatable this season. That was 2016, this is the biggest thing to remember, and it’s a new year. There is simply no value in drafting him at his current ADP’s.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray (15.9 Yahoo) (16.8 ESPN) (10.97 NFL.com) I just can’t get on board with where he is going in drafts. It isn’t that I think he will be a complete disaster, but more that he won’t live up to these ADP’s. Over the last five games of the 2016 season, the Murray-Derrick Henry breakdown of carries was 81-48 which is something you can expect more of this season with Murray being another year older (29) and Henry being another year experienced (23). The Titans will look to keep Murray fresh, which means fewer touches, meaning less fantasy points. Marcus Mariota also has another year of experience under his belt and the team will be looking for him to take the next step forward. They drafted WR Corey Davis with the 5th overall pick in the draft and signed free agent Eric Decker, giving Mariota stronger options in the pass game. The offense will shift to going through the air a bit more, which again is another hit to Murray’s value. His rush attempt total from 2016 of 293 will likely be more in the range of 240-250 this season, which equates to about 200 less rushing yards.

Christian McCaffrey (40.1 Yahoo) (34.8 ESPN) (33.62 NFL.com) What are we doing here people? These ADP’s are absurd. Jonathan Stewart is still on the roster and is still the starting running back. Strike one. Stewart and Cam Newton will be the goal line ball carriers and get the majority of the touchdowns. Strike two. The Panthers do not utilize their RBs in the passing game. Strike three. Sure that will likely change a bit with McCaffrey on the team, but it’s doubtful they change the offense that much because of him. In PPR leagues he will get a nice bump in value, but still not enough to match these ADP’s. In standard leagues he should be way further down the draft board. This is not a knock on his talent. The volume is not going to be there for him to pile up fantasy points. He is going inside the top-15 at the RB position as a backup/split-time running back. Ask yourself how that makes any sense, and then let someone else waste an early pick on him.

Adrian Peterson (71.9 Yahoo) (73.8 ESPN) (77.55 NFL.com) Is going early in drafts, and it makes no sense. He is the backup RB to a guy that was one of the most effective RBs of the 2016 season in Mark Ingram. Peterson missed nearly all of last season and the games he did play in he averaged just 1.9 yards per carry. He is 32 years old, which is extremely old for a RB, and plays in a pass heavy offense. He has never been a big time pass catcher with his career high in receptions being only 43. There is simply nothing to be excited about here. These ADP’s are clearly off a name basis, as he is one of the greatest RBs of all-time, but that means very little to what he will provide for the 2017 fantasy season. He is getting drafted before guys like Mike Gillislee, Bilal Powell, Frank Gore, LeGarrette Blount, and Paul Perkins, and that is completely crazy. Unless he is there very late in the draft, avoid wasting your pick for someone that is nothing more than a low-upside flier.

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon (118.9 Yahoo) (68.9 ESPN) (109.29 NFL.com) Moves over from a high-scoring Redskins offense with a solid QB in Kirk Cousins to an atrocious offense with the 49ers and QB Brian Hoyer. The Redskins offense passed for over 1800 more yards last season than the 49ers did. Yes, 1800! This makes a huge difference in a WRs value. More bad news… Garcon is the number one WR for the 49ers which means he matches up with the defenses top corners. He should still see heavy targets and will make for a decent PPR player, but in standard leagues this is someone to just avoid all together. Last season Garcon caught just one pass when the offense was inside the opponent’s 10 yard line and he didn’t manage to convert it into a touchdown. He has just three total touchdowns in 2016. This is just not a good situation for him to excel in. Torrey Smith can be used as somewhat of a reference here. In four seasons with Baltimore prior to joining the 49ers he averaged 898 yards and 7.5 touchdowns per season. In his two seasons with the 49ers he averaged 465 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. That is a huge drop off. Garcon is currently being drafted inside the top-30 to 40 at the WR position. This offense has still yet to find any answers or success, and that should make you avoid Garcon at these ADP’s.

Tight End

None.

Defense

Texans (75.3 Yahoo) (109.6 ESPN) (83.52 NFL.com) Are being drafted as the third defense, but why? Last season they finished outside of the top-10 in all leagues and (depending on scoring format) the majority of leagues outside of the top-15. They made zero key additions on defense in the offseason, so where does the improvement come from? Yes, they get J.J. Watt back this season, which will help, but enough to make them top-5? No. In 2015 the Texans had a fully healthy Watt (he won AP defensive player of the year) and they finished as the #10 defense. The offense still projects to be below average, so the defense will still be on the field a lot. There are not enough positive reasons to think this defense will finish inside the top-5, let alone the #3 slot they are currently being draft in.