Do we even know what’s real anymore? Seriously, this was a Sunday where Rodgers (probably) lost his season due to a broken collarbone. The Patriots almost lost to the Jets. The Austin Seferian-Jenkins play proved to everybody we still don’t know what’s a touchdown. The Saints put up 52 points, but Drew Brees only threw for 186 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The Falcons LOST to the Dolphins and Jay Cutler at home! If you really need to know how bizarre Week 6 truly was… Tarik Cohen threw a touchdown pass. He had more value as a quarterback than Aaron Rodgers and Jameis Winston. That’s what kind of day it was.
It was rough. It was ugly. Let’s get some sleep and move on to Week 7. Here are the hot takes…
The Julio Jones Breakout Game Comes Next Week
He’s playing the Patriots. And to be honest, the Julio/Matt Ryan stack in DFS is going to be very popular. It’s painful to admit, being a Pats fan and all, but it’s going to happen. In the first quarter against the Jets this week there were moments I legitimately though Robbie Anderson would post 150+ receiving yards. If you own ANY Falcons players they’re all in play next Sunday night in Foxboro. Sure the Falcons have lost three straight games against AFC East team dating back to the Super Bowl, but the New England defense is awful. They suck. Steve Sarkisian has treated a Maserati like a Zamboni thus far, but even he’ll be able to squeeze some offensive production out of the Falcons next week. Julio hasn’t found the end zone yet this season… He’ll find it twice next week. You heard it here first. It’s unfortunate that the two returning Super Bowl teams have been so bland this year, but next week will be an offensive masterpiece. Julio’s in line for a big game. The Pats secondary let Josh McCown of all people throw for 350+ yards. Matt Ryan > Josh McCown. Ipso facto, Ryan and Julio will be legendary next week.
Pick Up Dion Lewis
The New England Patriots have become a team that relies on game script… For fantasy purposes at least. Mike Gillislee was running the ball really well early on. Even down seven points he looked great. But after he fumbled the ball and the Jets scored off the turnover, the Pats went away from Gilly and leaned on Lewis to get them back in the game. To help get New England back into the game, Lewis rushed 11 times for 52 yards and a touchdown in total. Sure the Patriots essentially play the game of running back carousel each week, but Lewis does have value here. Gillislee is a decent runner, but he’s very TD dependent. His value drops in PPR. James White is valuable in PPR, but he hasn’t scored a TD all season. He’s the anti-Gilly. At some point Lewis will get more work. If New England keeps falling behind early on then the narrative may call for the offense to go away from Gillislee and see more work from Lewis and/or White. It’s frustrating on all accounts, but Lewis has seen 20 total touches the last two weeks. In New England’s first four games combined, he saw only 17 touches. Expect the trend to continue next week in a game that could find the Patriots fighting from behind if Atlanta can get out to a quick lead.
What to do Without Aaron Rodgers
This injury sent SHOCKWAVES throughout the fantasy industry, and the actual football industry believe it or not. Rodgers may have broken his collarbone, which could cost him his season. Can’t blame Olivia Munn for this injury because those two broke up a loooooooong time ago everyone! This is at its core pure, unbiased, unprejudiced bad luck. If you’re a Rodgers owner you may be able to get by. Maybe you scooped up Deshaun Watson off waivers or you also own Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers. In a standard league with 10 or 12 teams you’ll be able to find some option on waivers or you may have a backup already on your roster. The fantasy struggle lies with the owners of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, etc. These players need Rodgers’ production to benefit their own. Rodgers’ replacement, Brett Hundley, went 18-for-33 for 157 passing yards and a touchdown. The downside is that he also threw three interceptions. Jordy Nelson finished with 6-for-60. Adams finished with 5-for-54 with a touchdown. Montgomery had 28 rushing yards on ten carries. All in all the team scored just ten points. This is a nightmare scenario for not just the Aaron Rodgers owner, but for the owners of any Packers players in your league.
Buy Carson Palmer
If you are in need of a quarterback Carson Palmer is a very appealing option. Heading into Sunday’s matchup Palmer’s fantasy value was predicated mostly on him being able to throw the ball 40+ times each game. With the acquisition of Adrian Peterson (more on him in a second) Palmer was able to be more efficient on Sunday than he was previously. Palmer didn’t even need to reach 25 pass attempts to get to 20+ fantasy points. Just the presence of Adrian Peterson alone could make opposing defenses respect the run. And sure you can call me Captain Hindsight because I didn’t think Peterson would make an impact in his first game (he obviously did so feel free to throw your Twitter Tomatoes at me… But do it from Thursday-Sunday when I’m on vacation!). Palmer is a great QB to own later in the season. He has a bit of a rough stretch from Weeks 10-12 where he faces Seattle, Houston, and Jacksonville but after that he faces the Rams, Titans, Redskins, and Giants. From Week 12-16 he has four home games and so far this season his best fantasy performances have come at home in Arizona. It won’t be pretty, but Palmer can take you to a championship if he can stay healthy.
Peterson Can Still Go ALL DAY
Well, he could at least go all day this past Sunday. It’s no secret the Cardinals needed some semblance of a rushing attack. Coming into Sunday they ranked dead last in rushing yards with barely over 50 yards per game. On Sunday Peterson rushed for 134 yards on 26 carries with two touchdowns. Should you go out and acquire Peterson? Possibly, but if you were going to do so you should’ve done it before the game because now the Peterson owner in your league will raise his price tag. Don't get too excited about Peterson. He is still 32 years old and has had difficulty avoiding injury since 2014. If you own AP you’re obviously hanging on to him. If you don’t own him just let this ship pass on by. There will be other RB’s on waivers later in the year once more injuries accumulate.
Try and Trade For Kareem Hunt
This is hardly a hot take. But it can’t be suggested enough. As of this writing, Kareem Hunt hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 against the Chargers. This isn’t a “buy low” option by any means, rather it’s a “prepare for the postseason” move. From Weeks 12-16 the Chiefs play the Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins with only the Jets game coming on the road. The Chiefs have a very favorable fantasy playoff schedule. Sure enough their last game in Week 17 comes against the Broncos, which is a fantastic landmine to avoid. Hopefully the owner of Hunt or any Chiefs in your league is down in the standings so you can take advantage. Try and preach to them at this point in the season teams at the top are the ones trading for players with a solid floor while teams from behind need to trade for upside. If you’re in a league with minimal trading that’s one way to get moves going.
It’s Time to Trade Away Some Texans Players
Not all of them though, so pump the brakes! Two players you should consider dealing are Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller V. DeAndre Hopkins is going to continue to be a target machine (save for Sunday where he only had four targets, yeesh!) but Fuller’s production isn’t entirely sustainable. Fuller, on 14 targets this year, has eight catches. Five of those catches have been for touchdowns. He certainly has big play potential, but he needs to see more targets. Five touchdowns every eight catches just isn’t sustainable in this league. If you can acquire a RB2 or a receiver with upside for Fuller you should pursue those possibilities.
Deshaun Watson, if you can afford it, is another player you should try to part ways with. You’d be surprised how much people will play to acquire the flavor of the week. And Watson is certainly the most exciting QB to watch in terms of fantasy right now. In looking at his fantasy playoff schedule he has two very difficult matchups in Week 15 (in Jacksonville) and Week 16 (home to Pittsburgh). Currently both defenses allow less than 200 passing yards per game. Opposing QB’s have thrown just four TD’s through six games against Pittsburgh and four TD’s in six games against Jacksonville as well. Nobody has truly “lit up” either secondary so far and Watson will have to face these two juggernaut defenses in back-to-back weeks. Dangle Watson out and see what other owners may offer for him. Some players might be desperate enough to make a drastic offer.
Don’t Quit on (All) the Raiders Just Yet
It’s very difficult to just go out and say the Raiders suck. They don’t. We all saw in 2016 how well this team operates when they’re hitting their stride. Are they misusing Marshawn Lynch? Perhaps. But this is also a team that’s currently playing in an area of the country that’s being ravaged by wild fires. The team had to practice with face masks due to the poor air quality in Northern California. There are times when you have to admit that, even as a fantasy owner, there are bigger things going on than you’re soon-to-be 0-6 team.
Now once you take a breath and calm down you can start assessing how to move forward. Michael Crabtree is doing just fine. He’s about the only player on this team that’s been fantasy relevant. You don’t need to worry about him. Derek Carr has been rough, but he’s coming back from an injury that initially was supposed to sideline him for over a month. Be patient with him at QB. If you can tread water and get to the playoffs he has some decent matchups those weeks.
Cooper hasn’t caught a TD pass since the opening drive of the season. His drops are well documented and from Weeks 3-5 he had three straight games recording ten receiving yards of less. Cooper is the ultimate “buy low” candidate. Hopefully his owner is willing to sell him for peanuts so you can get him for cheap. For Jared Cook, he’s a streamable TE at best. He’s never really had consistent fantasy value and he likely never will. If you own him, drop him, and stash a sleeper.
For Marshawn Lynch, if he couldn’t get it done against the Chargers run defense he probably won’t get it done at all. Following his game Sunday he’s now averaging 3.67 yards per carry. He saw 18 touches in Week 1, but he’s averaging about 10-11 rushing attempts per game with the occasional catch. He’s on pace for under 700 rushing yards and that’s not really worthy of being a relevant fantasy running back. It might be time to open a bag of Skittles and pour them out for Beast Mode because he just doesn’t have it anymore…
Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter (@RealDANlanta) and send verbal taunts my way for some of my hot takes that go awry. Thanks for reading! Stay strong the rest of the way!