Welcome to the Thrive Fantasy breakdown for Super Bowl LV!
If you missed the introductory piece and are not familiar with Thrive Fantasy or their prop games, you should take a quick look at Howard Bender's introductory piece for a real quick tutorial. It’s not complicated at all, as you are merely selecting the over or under on a player prop and scoring points for correct answers, but just in case you’re new to the space, it’s always good to brush up.
For Sunday's big game, Thrive Fantasy is featuring a $30K prop contest that ONLY allows a total of 660 entries. That is a significantly smaller pool than any other DFS site's big money contests for this weekend which means your chances of cashing are already better.
Sign up here and register today, and as an added incentive, Thrive Fantasy has graciously offered to immediately match your first deposit up to $50 if you use the promo code ALARM. The featured contest has a $50 entry, so that means if you sign up and use our promo code, your entry fee is cut in half, or, if you deposit $50, you'll be matched immediately and have two entries into this contest for the price of one. Who doesn't love a good 2-for-1 deal?
.png)
Alright, let’s get to the Props for this featured $30K Guaranteeed prize pool contest!
Patrick Mahomes – 320.5 Pass + Rush Yards
Over = 95 Points
Under = 105 Points
Mahomes has only reached this number once in the past four games, which makes these point totals a bit unfavorable for the over, BUT he did go over this total in five straight games prior to that and this is the Super Bowl and a game that should be competitive. Despite the recent stretch of under’s, I will be taking the OVER on this one.
Patrick Mahomes – 27.5 Completions
Over = 110 points
Under = 90 Points
He has only gone over this total in six games out of 17 this season and only one time in the past six games, so it makes sense for the over to provide the much higher point total. However, I still see him failing to reach that total, so give me the UNDER.
Darrel Williams – 48.5 Rush Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Williams has gone over this total in back-to-back games, but prior to that he didn’t do that a single time all season and in one of those recent games, he only beat the total by three yards. Add to that the Bucs giving up the least rushing yards of any team this season and I think this prop is a pretty easy choice of an UNDER, especially at equal points.
Darrel Williams – 0.5 Rush TD’s
Over = 110 Points
Under = 90 Points
He had just two rushing touchdowns all season, but one of them did come last week. I don’t like his chances here; especially given how tough the Bucs are against the run. I see KC leaning on Mahomes and the passing attack in this one. Give me the UNDER.
Travis Kelce – 95.5 Receiving Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Kelce has surpassed this total in five of his past six games and eight of his past ten. Given that the point total is even for over/under on this one and the Bucs strength against the rushing attack, this feels like a pretty no-brainer OVER pick to me.
Travis Kelce – 7.5 Receptions
Over = 85 points
Under = 115 Points
Kelce has surpassed this total in nine of his past ten games and he had seven in the only game that he didn’t. Which makes the much lower point total for the over pretty fair, but it seems extremely unlikely that he won’t once again reach this total. Even at the lower point total, this is nearly a lock on the OVER.
Tyreek Hill – 85.5 Receiving Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Hill has broken this total in back-to-back games, but failed to do so in the four games prior to that. And I know he’s coming off a monster game in which he had 172 receiving yards, but earlier this season when he posted 269 receiving yards, he followed it up with just 58. So far this postseason, the Bucs have held Davante Adams , Michael Thomas , and Terry McLaurin all under this total and I expect that trend to continue, give me the UNDER.
Tyreek Hill – 0.5 Receiving TD’s
Over = 90 Points
Under = 110 Points
Hill racked up 15 receiving touchdowns this season, but he has failed to find the end zone in any of the past three games. And while I don’t see Hill racking up a big receiving yardage total, I do actually see him finding the end zone in this one, so I will take the OVER.
Mecole Hardman – 33.5 Receiving Yards
Over = 95 Points
Under = 105 Points
Hardman has reached this total just once in his past five games and twice in his last nine games. I don’t see that trend changing and with the higher point total being on the under, I will take my chances with that trend continuing and go with the UNDER.
Harrison Butker – 7.5 Points
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Butker has hit this mark in two straight games after failing to reach it in the four games prior. I don’t overly love a kicker prop as it’s a bit harder to predict, and this mark seems pretty fair. The Chiefs are nearly a lock for at least two touchdowns, so he would only need two field goals to reach this mark, but that actually seems a bit unlikely. I could see three-to-four extra points and one field goal, making this an UNDER for me.
Tom Brady – 284.5 Passing Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Brady was just shy of reaching this mark last week (280) and also failed to reach it the week before that, but he did throw for 348 or more yards in the four games prior to that. I feel as though he is more likely to reach this total than not, so at the same point value, I’ll take the OVER.
Tom Brady – 2.5 Passing TD + INT
Over = 80 Points
Under = 120 Points
I’ll start by saying that this is one of my least favorite options. He has gone over this total in just three of his past seven games. However, I feel like he will go over in this game, but the point total is so weak that I would rather take my chances on the UNDER.
Leonard Fournette – 74.5 Rush + Receiving yards
Over = 105 Points
Under = 95 Points
Fournette has taken over as the lead back for the Bucs in the playoffs and has surpassed this total in two of the past three games with the only game that he came up short coming in at 74. I think this bet could go either way, so I’ll take my chances at the higher payout and take the OVER.
Leonard Fournette – 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
Over = 85 Points
Under = 115 Points
He has found the end zone in all three playoff games, so it makes sense for the over to be less, but this is another bet that I am not in love with. I think he will find the end zone, but the over being a poor point payout makes it a bit rough, but I’ll still take the OVER.
Mike Evans – 63.5 Receiving Yards
Over = 90 Points
Under = 110 Points
Evans has failed to reach this mark in three of the past four games, so it’s a bit interesting that the under is actually getting 20 more points than the over. Would I be shocked if he went over? Of course not, but given the recent trend and the higher point total on the under, give me the UNDER.
Mike Evans – 5.5 Receptions
Over = 110 Points
Under = 90 Points
Now we have the reverse of the previous bet as he has also failed to reach this mark in three of the past four games (with reception totals of three, six, one, and three), but this one rightfully has the over getting more points. With that being said, I don’t see him getting there and I’ll take the UNDER.
Chris Godwin – 75.5 Receiving Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
Godwin has surpassed this total in four of his past five games, so you have to like the fact that the over is giving you just as many points as the under. I really wouldn’t be shocked at all if Godwin goes off for 100+ in this game, so I really like the OVER here.
Ronald Jones – 49.5 Rush Yards
Over = 100 Points
Under = 100 Points
This one is pretty tough as Jones has kind of given way to Fournette lately, but he has still managed to surpass this total in four of his past six games. However, I like the Chiefs to win this game and I like Fournette to be more of the featured back, so I am leaning UNDER for Jones.
Ryan Succop – 5.5 Points
Over = 90 Points
Under = 110 Points
And we round things out with our other kicker prop. Succop has gone over this total in three of his past four games and in the one game that he didn’t he finished with five. The Bucs are going to have to score and this seems like a pretty safe over, but the points aren’t great. Still though, give me the OVER.