NFL Week 7 has arrived and with very few upsets last week, your survivor pool didn’t have as many casualties as the week before. That makes this week’s selections that much more important and you can feel the nervous energy rising. The New York Giants upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles was the biggest upset of the week, but with so few people taking a Thursday Night game, it just didn’t hit as hard. So now we have the calm before the storm and everyone is scrambling to avoid this week’s big upset. Remember, the best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning several weeks ahead. Those who are still in it are ready to scratch and claw their way to the final weeks, so identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this article we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to next week and beyond.

 

 

 

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 7

The best survivor pool strategy for most weeks here in the first half of the season, revolves around the "chalky" plays. You’re looking at the reliable favorites with the biggest spreads, but not overexposed in most pools. You also prefer to have a home team and, in a lot of cases, avoid divisional matchups and the short week, a la Thursday Night Football. For NFL Week 7, the premium examples are likely to be the Denver Broncos, seven-point home favorites against the Giants, and the Detroit Lions who are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our friends over at Pool Genius point out, the Broncos have just a six-percent popularity score and only a 0.8 Future Value while the Lions have a zero-percent popularity score and a 1.6 Future Value. Why aren’t they popular? Well, for one thing, many have already used the Lions so if you have them, you’re in great shape. As for the Broncos, we’ve watched them struggle offensively, they’re on their way back from Europe and is there a hitter par of NFL players than Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo right now? Does that make the Broncos a bad pick? I don’t think so, and we’ll cover that in just a bit.

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

Back in Week 3, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks and since we are already here in Week 5, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely off their data and recommendations. The pick I had been tracking in this article series had Arizona in Week 5, so I am shifting gears. I have a few other picks in pool, so I am stull using the tools here, but instead of trying to track another pick, I will simply discuss the top few recommended picks overall and from there, you can determine who you want to take each week.

The top Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Denver Broncos (vs. New York Giants, 6% popularity)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs Las Vegas Raiders, 41% popularity)
  3. Green Bay Packers (at Arizona Cardinals, 2% popularity)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals, 7% popularity)

According to Pool Genius the Chiefs are expected to be the most popular pick this week and as a 12-point favorite and with Patrick Mahomes getting Rashee Rice back for this home game against the Raiders, it is understandable. Even though it is a divisional match-up. The game that ranks second-highest in popularity is actually the New England Patriots at 24-percent. However, they are on the road in Tennessee and this is their third-straight road game which, if you’re a bettor, you know is a bit of a poison-pill for most teams. You also have the Titans coming off having just fired their head coach and teams that do that either win outright or at least cover the spread 62-percent of the time. No, the spread doesn’t matter in survivor pools, but that’s some serious risk you’re absorbing. 

Now before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide has been fantastic thus far and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 7:

 

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Pick Kansas City Chiefs

Like our friends over at Pool Genius have said, the Chiefs are going to also be a very popular pick this week. They have the largest point spread on the slate at 12 and the Raiders are struggling on both sides of the ball. Ashton Jeanty is a valuable asset, but the offensive line struggles at run-blocking and the Chiefs are a notoriously strong run defense. That pits the ball into Geno Smith’s hands more and he’s just looked downright awful this season.

Kansas City started the season 0-2 and suddenly everyone was laughing at how the mighty have fallen. But they’ve bounced back and are 3-1 in their last four and Mahomes is averaging 282 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and only one interception over his last three. I wish they would run the ball a little better, but with the return of Rashee Rice and the way Mahomes has played, they might not even need to. 

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants: Pick Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 3-0 at home this season, favored by a touchdown and, according to Pool Genius have a 72-percent win odds. Bo Nix has been a little up-and-down thus far, but the tandem of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey in the backfield has done great things recently and helps to open the passing attack even more. Courtland Sutton is a legitimate alpha receiver and if you’ve check the Week 7 DFS Watch List, you can see my thoughts on Troy Franklin this week.

The Giants are hot right now and everyone is loving the intensity from Dart and Skattebo. But let’s not forget the loss of Malik Nabers, the lack of other strong receiving targets and the strength of the Broncos pass defense. Patrick Surtain and the rest of the secondary should have little trouble with this group and their level of play allows the front-seven to focus on stopping the run. I will most certainly be using them for at least one of my Week 7 survivor picks. 

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pick Detroit Lions

While the Pool Genius recommendations give higher winning odds to the Steelers and Packers, I am going to avoid both and go with the Lions. Both teams are on the road and the Steelers play Thursday Night. Instead, I’ll take a home game for the Lions who are expected to rebound from their Week 6 loss to the Chiefs and with the way Dan Campbell runs his team, I expect insanely strong efforts from Jared Goff and the passing attack, especially against this weak Bucs secondary. Remember, Goff at home has always been a strong play for Detroit.

You also have a very depleted offense for Tampa Bay. They still don’t have Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin has already been ruled out, Emeka Egbuka is still undergoing tests on his hamstring apparently and we don’t know what the status of Mike Evans is right now. Even if I’m not a fan of this Lions secondary, they should more than hold their own against the Bucs second and third-stringers.

These are the picks in my order of preference this week. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests. 

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