Week 15 of the NFL season nears its end with a potential AFC playoff preview. This is a battle between a pair of AFC juggernauts between the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens, despite losing Mark Andrews to injury, have been a force all season long and have control of the top seed in the playoff race. Lamar Jackson has had some massive performances, but the ground game has been so potent for Baltimore that he hasn’t been called upon to win too many games. But the unkindness from Charm City will head to Duval County to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars who are coming off back-to-back losses to a pair of other AFC North teams, the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. The shortcomings haven’t come at the hands of the offense. Similar to last season, Trevor Lawrence and Co. have gotten better offensively as the season has progressed after a bit of a sluggish start. But this shapes up to be a great matchup to close out the weekend. Be sure to consult our NFL DFS Projections and NFL Vegas Odds when you are researching this game. Here are the NFL DFS Showdown lineup picks and strategies for Sunday night’s Week 15 matchup!


Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

Weather: There will be extensive wind and rain Saturday night into Sunday in North Florida. But the rain will stop ahead of this game. Temperatures will be in the high 50’s with winds of 15-20mph and gusts up to 25-30mph.

Notable Injuries

Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars


Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is coming off a big game last week where he threw for 316 yards with three touchdown passes, an interception, and 70 rushing yards. If you’ve read my Playbooks before you know I love quarterbacks with rushing upside. He’ll likely be the most popular Captain candidate. Performances like last week delivered 35+ fantasy points on DraftKings which would equate to over 50 fantasy points at the Captain position. Per our NFL Match-Up Previews, the Jaguars allow the second-most passing yards per game (265.2) and both the Bengals and Browns have shown you can put up points on this defense, even with backup quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is a former MVP and should have no trouble putting up points in this matchup. The over/under is a little low at 41.5 points and I certainly think the over hits with Lamar having a solid game.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne has cooled off a little following that four-game stretch earlier this year where he had seven touchdowns and went off for 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings in each game. But despite playing through a rib injury, he’s posted back-to-back games of 17 fantasy points on DraftKings while finding the end zone in each contest. That kind of return won’t be optimal at Captain. We really need a “ceiling” performance from Etienne here. He hasn’t been an efficient runner of late, but he has four catches in three straight games so the volume and passing game involvement is what we’re chasing here. Opposing running backs have 15 receptions against the Ravens in their last three games. We know Etienne can match a volume of maybe four or five receptions. He likely needs multiple touchdowns to be optimal, but we know he can get there.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers has certainly excelled and has started to breakout since Mark Andrews got hurt. He only has four touchdowns on the year, but three of them have come in the last two weeks sans Andrews. He has 11 receptions over that two-game span, but he has 18 targets and they can draw up a designed run for him. If he and Lamar can connect more regularly, that will elevate his ceiling. The winds may call for shorter passes, which can still cater to Flowers’ strengths because he’s shown he can make plays on his own. The rookie is electric and fun to watch when the ball is in his hands.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m very fond of Engram in this spot simply because the Jaguars have not been utilizing him as a true tight end. And throughout his career, that’s always been the thing with Engram. He’s too fast and athletic to be used as a traditional tight end. And since Christian Kirk got hurt, we’ve seen him line up in the slot plenty.

Per Sal Vetri of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, Engram has been outstanding against man coverage. He had 11 catches last week against the Browns who operate man covered at the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Ravens don’t utilize it as much, but they still deploy it at an above average clip. With Christian Kirk out, Engram has 20 receptions on 21 targets over the last two weeks.

Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

I love getting Jones into a lineup or two at Captain. He has back-to-back games with five receptions and in that span he has 22 targets. Despite 14 targets last week he only had 29 receiving yards, which is a little embarrassing. Despite the underwhelming numbers from Week 14, over the last two games he does have a 25% target share and a 41% air yardage share. Most will just look at the box score and see the results from the past two games and maybe just consider him as a Flex play. But I think if you’re building multiple lineups you may just have leverage plugging him in at captain in 10% of your lineups and he’s largely underpriced when considering the attention he’s gotten from Lawrence the last two games without Christian Kirk. Jones is Questionable heading into this matchup, so we’ll need to monitor his status.

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Not a great matchup for Lawrence, so I’d rather not play him at Captain. Matthew Stafford came close last week, but at the end of the day no quarterback has dropped 300+ passing yards on Baltimore’s defense. Lawrence has four straight games with 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings but Sunday night could be a struggle and he likely doesn’t have the ceiling that Jackson, Flowers, Etienne, Engram, or even Calvin Ridley do. The Baltimore Ravens are second in Total DVOA and Pass DVOA and they allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Despite playing through an ankle injury last week, he did throw three interceptions and completed less than 60% of his pass attempts. I’m perfectly fine correlating him at the flex with any of his pass catchers at Captain. But I would limit exposure to just the Flex in this matchup.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ridley has 21 targets over his last two games. That’s outstanding. However, he only has eight receptions, four each in the last two contests. In the first full game without Christian Kirk in the slot, the first-read target concentration was focused on three players: Zay Jones (28.2%), Evan Engram (28.2%), and Calvin Ridley (26.8%). Ridley is doing well enough to gain separation and get open. But the catch rate and what he does when the ball is in his hands haven’t been as elite. He’s very boom-or-bust but there is upside if you feel inclined to plug him in at captain.

Odell Beckham., WR, Baltimore Ravens

Beckham offers a decent floor with double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. He had four catches on 10 targets last week against the Los Angeles Rams, but fortunately he found the end zone to salvage the day. He’s been playing better of late and has been earning that big contract the Ravens gave him prior to the season.

I’m not sure how accurate that target percentage stat is, only because it seems a bit high. But the rest of that tweet from Sarah Ellison is accurate. I don’t love the ceiling for Odell, but there’s certainly a spot for him to go out and put up 15+ fantasy points in this matchup. The Jaguars have given up plenty of yards through the air lately and an opposing wide receiver has found the end zone in every game this year against the Jags.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

He will be a popular play especially since he’s cheaper than Odell. He popped for 5-83-1 last week and scored a big 54-yard touchdown on broken coverage against the Los Angeles Rams. He’s certainly stepped up in the absence of Mark Andrews. We also just watched David Njoku torch the Jaguars for a pair of touchdowns last week, and the Jaguars have struggled to defend the tight end position overall this year. Touchdowns are tough to predict and I am expecting Likely to get another six or seven targets this week at heavy rostership.

Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens

There are some interesting pricing choices on DraftKings at the running back position. Gus Edwards is a little too expensive for my liking as it’s become very clear he’s a touchdown-or-bust option. But he still has 10 on the season. While he won’t make my personal player pool, I will acknowledge he can still score. But even D’Ernest Johnson is priced up to $6,200 which I don’t fully understand, especially since he’s dealing with a knee injury. So I’ll consider Keaton Mitchell as my second-favorite running back on the board. Mitchell has at least nine touches in four of his last five games and he has a little involvement in the passing game. He’s likely optimal if he can find the end zone, but he hasn’t done that since Week 10.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST

I’m writing up the Ravens D/ST separately because I don’t want to play the Jaguars D/ST. I will acknowledge that the Jaguars can force turnovers in bunches, but they’ve also given up plenty of offensive production to inferior teams. The Ravens have returned double-digit fantasy points in over half their games this year and they’re cheaper than both kickers. They also lead the league entering Week 15 with 49 sacks as a team so they can certainly put pressure on the opposing quarterback. Pressure leads to sacks and turnovers and as mentioned above, Lawrence was picked off three times last week. The total is surprisingly low at just 41.5 points. However, the Ravens are favored by three points and I think it’s a good spot for them to return double-digit points once again.


Justin Tucker ($5,400) and his reputation are priced up over $5K which is a bit excessive. But the Ravens have an efficient offense that puts up points. He has multiple field goal attempts and multiple extra point attempts in six straight games so the volume is certainly there for him. He has double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games as well. If the Ravens are moving the ball then Tucker lines up as a good play but it’s certainly a tough price tag for a kicker. Despite Lamar and Tucker being pricy, they correlate very well together.

Brandon McManus ($4,800) is similarly a little expensive but still has double-digit fantasy point upside. There’s a little more variance to his game than Tucker’s. Tucker offers a good floor. McManus has a good ceiling but a low floor as we witnessed last week where he only had three extra point attempts. If this is a low-scoring game as Vegas expects, then that bodes well for McManus. The Ravens defense is tough, but the Jaguars can move the ball and still have a good offense. If this game gets out of hand, then McManus may not see many opportunities. And keep in mind, winds may be elevated in this matchup so that’s somewhat risky for both kickers.

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

We’ve already touched on the concentrated first-read target share and Washington isn’t quite up there with Jones, Ridley, or Engram. However, Jones is questionable heading into this game and Washington is only $4,000 on DraftKings. He’s found the end zone in back-to-back games with nine targets in that span. If Zay Jones is inactive then Washington becomes a likely chalk play at this price tag. 

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Bateman’s an okay play in this range. He certainly stands out simply because the values in this range are awful. I think you can also consider Nelson Agholor ($2,400) for salary relief. But Bateman typically runs more routes and has at least two receptions in seven of his last eight games. Not a great ceiling from either but if one of them finds the end zone they’re likely optimal at this price tag.

Jamal Agnew, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars activated Agnew off IR for this game and he’s only $200 on DraftKings. He does have two games this season with four receptions, but for the most part he’s been very uninvolved when active. However, if Zay Jones is out and Agnew is good to play then he certainly warrants some consideration. We only need a couple receptions at this price tag and he’ll pay it off if that’s the case.