We put a bow on Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season with a primetime matchup featuring the Washington Commanders heading to the City of Fountains to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Commanders sit at 3-4 and have dropped back-to-back games while the Chiefs have won two straight and sit at 4-3. Both teams need a win Monday night to keep pace in their respective divisions for their playoff runs. Unfortunately, the Commanders will once again be without Jayden Daniels for the third time this season. Let’s close out Week 8 in the green and take a look at the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Commanders vs. Chiefs Game Preview

The Washington Commanders are simply trying to tread water while Jayden Daniels is out with a hamstring injury. However, the injury isn’t believed to be serious and he could return for Sunday’s Week 9 matchup where they host the Seattle Seahawks in primetime. The good news for Washington is they won’t have to rely too much on the likes of Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey, and Jaylin Lane since Deebo and McLaurin will be available for this game.

They do need to “right the ship” so to speak and this is an incredibly matchup to do so. They’ve lost three of their last four games which is disappointing when you consider the expectations placed on this team after they made the NFC Championship game a year ago. This is a team that’ll play the Seahawks and Lions in Weeks 9 and 10 with matchups on the horizon against the Broncos, Vikings, Cowboys, and Eagles (twice). They’ve got quite the hill to climb considering they’re 10.5-point underdogs for this game.

The Chiefs navigated the Rashee Rice suspension to a 3-3 record and moved to 4-3 with last week’s hilarious win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders were only able to get three first downs all game and one of them came on a penalty. In fact, the Chiefs had as many first downs as the Raiders had total plays (30).

But the AFC West has been particularly sporty to kick off the 2025 NFL season. While the Chiefs are coming together and rounding into form, the Denver Broncos have won five straight games and sit atop the division at 6-2. The Los Angeles Chargers got a win over the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football to get to 5-3 so the Chiefs need the win simply to keep pace in the AFC playoff picture.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Chiefs Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Washington Commanders have ruled out Jayden Daniels for this game due to a hamstring injury. It’s a bit of a bummer that we have a primetime matchup and we won’t get to see Mahomes vs. Daniels play out for our MNF DFS picks. The good news is that Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are both set to return as Marcus Mariota will be the starting quarterback tonight. One injury to monitor is with kicker Matt Gay. He’s been dealing with a back injury all week but DraftKings and FanDuel are only showing one kicker for Washington in the player pool. If the team elevates another kicker to the roster today, then that likely signals Gay could be out. And I don’t know if the DFS providers will have time to add his replacement to the player pool. But as of Monday morning, I’m operating as if Gay will be available.

The Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with some injuries to the offensive line. Rookie first round pick, Josh Simmons, has been ruled out for the third straight game for personal reasons so hopefully everything is going okay with him. Yahoo! Sports did release an article yesterday saying he could rejoin the team in a few weeks. And additionally, Trey Smith is doubtful as he hasn’t practiced all week due to a back injury.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/27

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Mahomes has been nothing short of amazing over the last four weeks. In four straight contests he’s thrown for 250+ yards while adding 120 rushing yards in that span. On the season he’s scored four touchdowns with his legs while throwing for 14 more. He’s returned 23+ fantasy points on DraftKings in all but one game this year so that’s plenty of reason to include him in the Captain section.

Mahomes ranks 6th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.26) and he’s 2nd in success rate (54.9%). He can give some credit to his offensive line for giving him plenty of clean pockets. The Chiefs O-line ranks 8th in pass rush win rate (66%) and 2nd in pressure rate allowed (23.5%). They’ll definitely have their hands full Monday night as the Commanders pass rush is pretty active. They rank top 10 in pass rush win rate (43%), blitz rate (30.1%), and sack rate (7.7%) while they’re 12th in pressure rate (33.3%). But Mahomes is savvy enough to escape the pocket and generate production with his legs. Despite the pass rush for Washington, they’ve allowed five-of-seven opposing offenses to score 24+ points and they only have three takeaways in seven games.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,200

Rashee Rice returned from suspension last week and didn’t skip a beat. He wasn’t incredibly efficient, but he found the end zone twice on 10 total targets. Over his last 10 healthy games, Rice is averaging 19.9 fantasy points in full PPR formats with double-digit fantasy points in each game.

The game was an absolute blowout, and he was a big reason why. Perhaps the most noteworthy stat from last week was that four of his targets came inside the 10-yard line. Patrick Mahomes got his favorite weapon back and wasted no time targeting Rice where it mattered most. The matchup is once again another good one for Rice as the Commanders secondary is bottom 10 in yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

There’s variance to this play but we lean into that for our Commanders vs. Chiefs DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel. Deebo has three games this season with 20+ fantasy points and two with less than six. Obviously, we need the ceiling and we’ll lean into that because Deebo is a volume play, albeit not a consistent one.

He has four touchdowns on the season and can get some designed runs out of the backfield, which I do expect to be the case in this game with no Jayden Daniels, which could really lead to more stacked boxes if the Chiefs don’t respect the run. But Deebo is arguably Washington’s best chance to score Monday night.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $7,400

This is an absolutely outstanding price tag on FanDuel for Kelce. It may no longer be National Tight End Day but hey, he didn’t have the luxury of playing on Sunday.

The downside with Kelce at this stage in his career is that he’s just like most other tight ends nowadays: he’s reliant on finding the end zone. He’s older and slower so the production after the catch has been capped. Another big concern is the attention Rashee Rice received inside the 10-yard line last week. Kelce is still getting enough volume with three games with at least seven targets. A big night means he can ride on down to Six Flags and celebrate his latest investment opportunity. After all, Jake Ferguson was able to score twice on this defense last week.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,400

Mariota will get the start for Washington Monday night as Jayden Daniels has been ruled out to close out Week 8. The Washington O-line ranks 11th in pass block win rate (65%) and 10th in pressure rate allowed (29.4%). But Mariota’s been sacked about five times in his 2.5 starts/appearances this year.

But he’s a serviceable quarterback overall. He’s rushed for 20+ yards in all three appearances but passing volume might be low which is why I don’t think he has the upside to score well enough to be optimal at Captain. Mariota’s passing number don’t necessarily stand out and the Chiefs haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 225+ yards on them since Week 1.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,400

It’s hard to feel optimistic for Worthy especially given that Rashee Rice is back from suspension. He’s seen just four targets in back-to-back games and with Rice in the lineup last week the target share dropped to 12%. Over his last three games he’s failed to clear 12 fantasy points.

The matchup is still elite as we highlighted in Rashee Rice’s section but it’s hard to play Worthy with much confidence so we can’t consider him a “core” play for our Commanders vs. Chiefs DFS picks.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,600

Both Deebo and Scary Terry were full participants in practice this past week so the Commanders have some reinforcements coming on offense even if they’re still missing Jayden Daniels. McLaurin hasn’t played since Week 3 and that’s been his only game playing with Mariota under center. He caught 3-of-4 targets (yikes) but did lead the team with 74 receiving yards.

He’s yet to really be unlocked since signing his massive contract in training camp. But if he’s a full go then he’ll be leaned on plenty and draw coverage from Nohl Williams and Jaylen Watson while Deebo sees a good amount of Trent McDuffie. Again, we like the talent here and the Commanders are getting a great boost to their wide receiver group. But it all really depends on how well Mariota can play if this team falls into a negative game script.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $9,800

I will acknowledge that Isiah Pacheco is a worthwhile pivot off JCM in this price range, and he arguably has the better matchup. But Pacheco lacks the consistent hard runs we saw prior to his injury last year and he’s yet to pop for a gain of 20+ yards this season. But if you prefer going with Pacheco then you’ll be happy to hear that Washington has given up 128+ rushing yards to five of their last six opponents.

I’m simply highlighting JCM because there’s less competition for him. He’s the RB1 without much concern so the volume will likely stick as he’s averaging 16 touches per game over his last three performances. He definitely has the potential to break the slate or kill your lineup. In three games this year he’s averaged at least 6.2 YPC. But he also has three other performances averaging less than 3.7 YPC.

The Chiefs can be difficult to run on especially if they aren’t respecting the pass in this matchup. But their run defense ranks 23rd in EPA/Rush (-0.03), 21st in rush success rate (42.6%), 20th in yards before contact per attempt (1.39), and they’re dead last in run stop win rate (25%). Now I will add the caveat to lend context to these numbers. Opposing offenses are only averaging 23.3 rush attempts per game on KC which is 9th fewest in the NFL. If the Commanders fall behind early that could be troubling for Bill.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $6,000

Ertz isn’t really a significant “dart throw bargain” but the price is affordable especially on FanDuel. Ertz received only one target in Week 5 but found the end zone in Weeks 6 and 7 with 13 targets in that two-game sample size.

Here’s the bad news: The Chiefs are top notch at defending the tight end position. This could be a low volume kind of night for Ertz. The Chiefs have given up just one receiving touchdown to opposing tight ends and the third-fewest fantasy points as well. Tread carefully because production could be minimal. But he will be on the field for plenty of snaps and he’ll run a good amount of routes as well.

Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,800

Brashard Smith got additional run last week but the game script kind of called for it. The Chiefs simply embarrassed the Las Vegas Raiders beating them 31-0 and Smith was able to touch the ball 19 times for 81 total yards.

He’s now caught at least three passes in four straight games but has yet to find the end zone. He’s only averaging about 3.0 YPC so he hasn’t done much to warrant more usage, but the consistent production in the passing game keeps the door open for him to pay off this price tag.

If you need to save a little more money then Kareem Hunt is also in the player pool and he may very well see more snaps on offense than Smith while getting some short yardage, goal line work. Hunt popped up on the injury report early last week, but he carries no injury designation for this matchup.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $5,000

Like most of the Kansas City pass catchers, Smith-Schuster saw his production take a bit of a hit with Rashee Rice returning last week. But it’s not like he was producing in mass quantities to begin with. Smith-Schuster still caught all three of his targets for 35 yards.

He’s a very affordable piece of the Kansas City offense and at $2,400 he will probably see a good amount of ownership because he still gets a lot of work out of the slot for the Chiefs. His aDOT isn’t particularly noteworthy but he can do plenty after the catch and he has multiple receptions in six-of-seven games this year. Three receptions for roughly 50-60 yards would definitely pay off this price tag.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool, 10/27

I want to add a quick note that Hollywood Brown is in the player pool for this slate but I was having trouble getting his name to generate in the tables below.

Player Pool

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