And just like that, we are off and running with the 2025 NFL season. We kick off Week 2 with a potential playoff preview between two contenders in the NFC. Both the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers won their Week 1 matchups with relative ease. They both get a quick turnaround as they each attempt to get their second win of the season. Green Bay plays host this week and we should expect a little more action for Micah Parsons. It’s a great matchup to kick off Week 2 so let’s dive into the latest Thursday Night Football DFS picks!

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Packers DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/11

Week 2 delivers a very strong matchup in the NFC as the Washington Commanders visit the Green Bay Packers for our TNF DFS picks. Both teams won their Week 1 contests in rather convincing fashion, but one is about to lose their “0” to kick off Week 2.

The Washington Commanders weren’t perfect last week but they had a layup of a matchup against the New York Giants. Deebo Samuel and Jacory Croskey-Merritt were exceptional in their debuts with the Commanders. Both found the end zone and looked exciting with the ball in their hands. It was a solid win after a mildly tumultuous training camp for Washington. This team will only get better as the season progresses.

The Green Bay Packers also got into the win column last Sunday with a firm win over the Detroit Lions. The Lions were one of the best offenses in the NFL over the last couple seasons, but the Packers held them to 13 points and just 46 total rushing yards despite the Lions owning time of possession 35:25 to 24:35. It was an impressive showing for Micah Parsons, who logged limited reps with the team but still recorded a sack.

Parsons is no stranger to the Washington Commanders and this matchup could deliver fireworks to kick off Week 2. Let’s take a look at the latest Thursday Night Football DFS picks and strategies for our winning lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Packers TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Commanders +3 (-102)
    • Packers -3 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+142)
    • Packers (-170)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-108)
    • Under 48.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Commanders +3.5 (-115)
    • Packers -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Commanders (+148)
    • Packers (-174)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-106)
    • Under 48.5 (-114)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Commanders vs. Packers TNF, September 11th

We will have nearly perfect conditions for Thursday night’s game. Around kickoff, temperatures will be in the low 60’s and cooling into the high 50’s around the time this one finishes up. The skies will be clear with little chance of rain and the winds will be rather tame as well.

 

Commanders vs. Packers Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 2

Following Wednesday’s injury reports, the Commanders are only listing Deatrich Wise Jr. and Tress Way as questionable for Thursday night. Wise’s status could impact the defense but there are no big injuries to monitor on offense despite Noah Brown not practicing. It’s worth mentioning that while he didn’t appear on the injury report, there’s a chance Chris Rodriguez is a healthy scratch once again for Week 2.

The Green Bay Packers have already ruled out a couple defensive pieces in Brenton Cox Jr. and Bo Melton. Micah Parsons is questionable after being limited in his debut with the team this past Sunday. But we really need to keep an eye on the status of Zach Tom and Aaron Banks. Those two are probably Green Bay’s best offensive linemen and we’ll have to see if they’re able to suit up when inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,600

The Commanders offense was less than stellar last week against the New York Giants. That’s certainly not going to be the case every week. Try to remember, this team traded one of their running backs, who played at a high-level last year before getting hurt. And they had their star receiver hold out for a new contract before re-signing very late in camp.

So there were some question marks heading into Week 1 and this group, while returning some similar faces, just lacked a little cohesion. But this does feel like a matchup where Daniels is asked to do more. Is it perfect? No. Head on down to the D/ST section to read about Micah Parsons’ ability to track down Daniels.

But last week we saw the Packers hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to just 44 yards on the ground. That’s by far a more formative rushing attack than what Washington offers. The Commanders opened Week 2 with an implied team total of 22.5 points which is lower than what we were probably expecting. It could be a challenge on a short week, but if Washington can’t get the running game going, I expect Daniels to make plenty of opportunities happen with his legs and he has a path towards volume and exceeding his 225.5 passing yards line.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,400

Jacobs didn’t get much done last week against Detroit. Even in a “down” game by Jacobs standards, he still found the end zone marking the ninth straight game he’s scored a touchdown with Green Bay dating back to last season.

The Commanders aren’t as challenging of a defense as the Lions are. Last year the Commanders allowed 1.1 touchdowns per game to the running back position and when you consider the fact that Jacobs is an absolute work horse, you like his odds. Jacobs touted an 85.1% snap share last week against Detroit with 20 total touches. And he may have only had one target, but he also ran 15 routes.

The Lions had a top five run defense a year ago and they gave Jacobs fits in Week 1. The Commanders should be an easier matchup and there’s always volume with Jacobs. During the regular season in 2024, the Packers ran the ball over 75% of the time when they got inside the 10-yard line. They did exceed pass rate expectations in Week 1, but I expect them to hammer the ball with Jacobs against Washington.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,200

I went back and forth with whether I should go with Deebo or Terry McLaurin but I’m settling on Deebo after his outstanding debut with the team in Week 1. And what we saw from Deebo in Week 1 wasn’t entirely different from how San Francisco used him in the pass.

His first touchdown with the team came on an end-around run from 19 yards out. We saw plenty of those when he was with the 49ers. He caught 7-of-10 targets for 77 yards and four of those catches came from behind the line of scrimmage. That sounds very familiar to how Kyle Shanahan used him as well.

The formula is pretty simple and we know what to expect. He made an immediate impact and both he and McLaurin were the only Commanders receivers to play more than 50% of the snaps. Kliff Kingsbury seems like the perfect coordinator for Deebo to come over to as he’s going to draw up and give Deebo all the fun stuff to do and performances like last week are why we can go back to the well with Deebo.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $9,800

I’ll start this section off by saying, I know he’s hurt. Even when he’s taken off the injury report each week, I’m aware of the fact he’s playing through a Jones fracture this year. But when the adrenaline kicks in, maybe the pain is more manageable.

Reed led the team in target share, but only had five targets. It’s worth mentioning that he only registered a 51% snap share. So he led the team in targets while only playing about half the snaps. Volume is there if he can get on the field more.

The short week doesn’t give me a ton of confidence that he’ll see a significant increase in snaps. But I do think this is a contrarian call who popped for big games last year and still managed to find the end zone in Week 1 while playing through the foot pain.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,800

It’s just one man’s opinion but Love always shapes up better as a flex play than Captain. I’m not saying he can never be Captain on a Showdown slate. Four passing touchdowns ought to do it, but he lacks the rushing upside of someone like Jayden Daniels so I prefer using Love as a popular flex play.

Honestly, I loved seeing the Packers rank fifth in the first half of Week 1 games in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) at 9.6% and that came in a positive game script against the Detroit Lions. But even then Love came up shy of 16 fantasy points on DraftKings because he still only attempted 22 passes over the course of the game.

The offensive line played to an incredibly high level in Week 1. The Lions generated just a 26.1% pressure rate and he had a clean pocket for 72.7% of his snaps according to Fade The Noise. The Commanders weren’t able to generate much pressure against Russell Wilson and the New York Giants as they collected just two sacks and forced zero turnovers. Love is in line to provide a pretty solid floor in this matchup, but he needs Tom and Banks for the clean pockets.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,400

If you’re a fantasy baseball guy or perhaps an MLB DFS savant, you’ll appreciate this “BvP” kind of stat. But in his last three games against the Green Bay Packers, McLaurin is averaging five receptions, 85 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Despite seeing nearly 80% of the offensive snaps last week he only saw four targets. However, the team paid him good money recently so a week like that won’t always be the case. McLaurin didn’t get much action in preseason and training camp, so I wasn’t expecting much from him last week.

Despite the small target share, McLaurin led the team in air yards and routes run. I do think we see more involvement in Week 2 because this will certainly be a more competitive game that has shootout potential.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,000

Kraft’s target share was low last week but that was the case across the board for Green Bay’s pass catchers. The good news is he was on the field for 91.7% of the snaps and he was third on the team in air yards with 51 behind Romeo Doubs (92) and Reed (70).

Last season the Commanders ranked toward the bottom half of the league in receiving yards and receptions allowed to opposing tight ends. The Commanders ran a good amount of man coverage and single-high in Week 1. Last Sunday against Detroit, Kraft had a 36.4% target rate against man coverage so I’m hoping the coverage and target rates carry over to Week 2.

I can never really write off any Packers pass catcher as a Captain option and while tight ends aren’t as optimal as other positions, Kraft will have some spike weeks.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,800

“Bill” Croskey-Merritt had a great debut last week rushing the ball 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown while failing to bring in his lone target. He made quite the impression and was blowing up on social media during the early games Sunday afternoon.

But when we look at the scope of that game, it was a good opportunity for him to see action against an inferior opponent. Austin Ekeler saw about half the offensive snaps and he ran a route on 46% of the team’s dropbacks. Croskey-Merritt was on the field for about 30% of the team’s offensive snaps.

So when choosing between the two, you have to only try and predict game flow. A more competitive game where the Commanders play from behind likely means that Ekeler is involved more. He caught all three of his targets last week for 31 yards. If the Packers are getting quick pressure on Jayden Daniels this week then I’m siding with Ekeler since there could be more passes behind the line of scrimmage to the likes of him and Deebo Samuel

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $5,600

I’m briefly mentioning Golden because I, like many in the fantasy community, believe he emerges as the WR1 in Green Bay this season. It may not happen until Week 3 or maybe another week after, but he carries an excellent draft pedigree and was drafted to be the team’s leading receiver. This early on in the year, Love is more comfortable feeding the ball to Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs.

Golden was also nursing an ankle injury in Week 1 but he’s off the injury report for Week 2. I don’t think we see him make the jump and elevate himself to the WR1 on a short week. That doesn’t mean I want to lay off getting exposure in this spot though. He’s rather contrarian with great upside for tournaments.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,200

Earlier this week, the Packers essentially retained Christian Watson on a one-year contract as he works his way back from an injury. The move was an interesting one because they’ve had a crowded receiving room for a few seasons now and by signing Watson it doesn’t seem as likely they retain Doubs. And this comes after the team made a splash by drafting Matthew Golden.

As of Wednesday, there were some rumors that teams were calling and inquiring about Doubs’ availability. There’s no move yet obviously, but with a game in primetime this is an opportunity to show him off for other teams to make an offer, even though they probably know what to expect.

For a Showdown slate we obviously like the fact that Doubs had a 70.8% snap share (most among the Green Bay receivers), but he only had four targets. He ran the second-most routes last week behind only Tucker Kraft. Doubs also led the team in air yards. But to circle back to his routes, he had a 47% route win rate in Week 1 which was highest among all receivers in the NFL. For a pass catcher that’s had spike weeks in the past, Doubs seems hard to avoid at just $4,000 and I think he’s worth some shares at Captain as well.

Noah Brown, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,200

Brown’s been on the injury report all week, but he carries no designation heading into Week 2. It was a bad game script for most Washington pass catchers but especially for those not named Terry McLaurin or Deebo Samuel, who both logged over 75% of the offensive snaps.

Brown played just under half the offensive snaps but still managed to get three targets. The game script Thursday night projects better for him as the Commanders will throw more in a competitive environment.

Chris Rodriguez, RB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $1,400 | FanDuel: $2,000

Rodriguez was declared inactive this past Sunday just 90 minutes before game time and that was a surprise to everybody as he was a healthy scratch. It was a surprising move especially after there was some hype surrounding his name late in training camp following the trade of Brian Robinson

Rodriguez didn’t appear on the injury reports earlier this week so if he is ruled out once again Thursday night then it’s just a matter of him being another healthy scratch and we assume Ekeler and Croskey-Merritt dominate the touches once again. But if C-Rod is good to go then this is a great punt to open up salary elsewhere.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

It feels appropriate to just kick this section off with Micah Parsons. Parsons made his debut for Green Bay last week and even on a limited snap count he still made his presence known with a sack and he faced constant double-teams from the Lions offensive line. Part of the reason the Packers made my NFL DFS D/ST Coach last week was simply because of Parsons, regardless of the matchup.

And that does hold true this week. I’m very intrigued by the Packers D/ST especially on a short week. Parsons is obviously no stranger to the Washington Commanders and their offense. In Daniels’ rookie season, these two teams met twice but one of those matchups was in Week 18 and Daniels didn’t play in the second half to preserve his health for the postseason. And that was probably a smart move because in the first half of that game he was sacks four times and Parsons was credited with 2.5 sacks. And when Dallas and Washington met earlier in the year, Parsons collected another two sacks on Daniels. So in six quarters back of football against each other, Parsons has 4.5 sacks on Daniels. If there’s one player that can keep pace with Daniels and track him down, it’s Parsons.

Parsons’ dominance over the Commanders dates back to even before Jayden Daniels was drafted. Across his career, Parsons has 10.5 sacks against the Commanders (most against any team), 15 quarterback hits (most against any team), and 29 pressures (you guessed it, that’s the most against any team). It’s a short week and both offenses are rather stellar, but the Commanders offense didn’t look to be on the same page last week so if I’m targeting one defense in this matchup it’s going to be Green Bay in the event they’re as dominant against the Commanders as they were on the road against the Detroit Lions.

It’s still very early in the season as we only have a one-game sample size for each team. And as good as the one-game sample for Green Bay’s defense looks, they didn’t even have Parsons for a full workload. So kickers are hard to gauge, especially for a quick turnaround. It all comes down to how the offenses are clicking with just a few days of practice. The sportsbooks are giving us a fairly aggressive implied total at 48.5 points. Matt Gay didn’t attempt a field goal last week as the Commanders comfortably beat the Giants 21-6. Brandon McManus on the other hand was perfect on his three extra point attempts and he drilled his two field goal attempts as well.

Both Gay and McManus do seem like solid bets to look at multiple field goal attempts this week. For as good as the Packers defense was in Week 1 they still surrendered a pair of field goal attempts to Detroit. Even the Commanders yielded a pair of field goals to the lowly New York Giants. I love getting exposure to these special team options on Showdown slates for short weeks. I especially love the kickers in primetime since they hit the top 1% of DFS lineups nearly half the time.

 

 

 

Commanders vs. Packers DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/11

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