The opening week of the NFL playoffs is here and with it we get a couple more games than we normally see this weekend as the additional playoff team for each conference means there’s only one team for the AFC and NFC that’s on bye this week. So lucky us, we get six games this weekend instead of just four. We will keep the normal form of this article going throughout the playoffs including for the Super Bowl.
As always there will be 30-plus stats for each game including stats and ranks for each. There will also be quick breakdowns to show the mismatches or intriguing stats about each game and where we can find upside for DFS or fantasy football match-ups. The color-coding in the tables are from an offensive point of view so the more green you see, the better for the offensive players and the more red in the table, the tougher a match-up is for the offensive players.
Indianapolis at Buffalo
This is a battle between two teams who have kind of taken two different paths to the playoffs. The Colts haven’t been great over the last few weeks but did enough to make the playoffs, while the Bills have won seven of their last eight games with all of the wins coming by at least 10 points and hung a 50-spot on the Dolphins last week. Buffalo tied a franchise-high with 13 wins this year and both of the last two times they’ve hit that mark they’ve made the Super Bowl, however they have lost six straight playoff games which is the third-longest active streak in the NFL. Josh Allen has been on fire over the last four games with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions and in the same span Indianapolis has allowed 311.4 yards per game passing which is second-most in the league. The Colts are going to need Jonathan Taylor to keep up the pace he’s been on the last few games if they hope to keep Allen and Stefon Diggs and company off the field.
Los Angeles at Seattle
Normally this is a game with a great feel about it but not this particular match-up. The Rams are down their quarterback and are rolling out John Wolford under center who didn’t exactly light things up last week in his first start. Meanwhile, Seattle does have Russell Wilson at the helm but it’s not the same Wilson we saw earlier in the season who was an MVP candidate as in the last 10 games, on deep passes, he’s completed just 29.5-percent of them with nearly as many picks as touchdowns and a passer rating just over 70 compared to the first six games of the season posting a nearly 141 passer rating with an 8:0 TD:INT. The Seahawks defense on the other hand has improved greatly over the last half of the season allowing 150 fewer yards a game. This will be a highly defensive, low-scoring game.
Tampa Bay at Washington
The last time a team made the playoffs with a losing record, like Washington’s 7-9 mark, was Carolina in 2014 who’s coach was Ron Rivera. They won the first round game. Tampa Bay has looked like one of the best offenses in the league the last few games as the loaded passing attack has started to hit their stride but now they face the second-ranked pass defense in DVOA and a defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest points per game at 20.6 and the second-fewest yards per game at 304.6. Washington may or may not be rotating out quarterbacks in the game as Alex Smith is still dealing with a calf injury and while Washington has been decent at running the ball this year, they’re facing the best rush defense in the league. A sneaky good match-up though is Logan Thomas for Washington as Tampa is 25th against the TE in DVOA and allows an average of 8.6 fantasy points a game to them in half-PPR formats.
Baltimore at Tennessee
This is a pretty interesting match-up from a number of different ways. Firstly, of the 589 teams to make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, the Titans have allowed the second-most points per game on defense at 27.4. Secondly, this is the fifth time that the Ravens and Titans have met in the playoffs and the road team is 4-0 in the prior meetings, however, Lamar Jackson is the fifth reigning MVP to rematch the team that knocked him out of the playoffs the year before and the MVP has lost each of the previous four matchups. Tennessee hasn’t been great on defense by any stretch, ranking middle-of-the-road in Rush DVOA and 30th in Pass DVOA, and so they will have to really work to slow down a reinvigorated Baltimore offense that has been lights out down the stretch. Though one thing in the Titans favor is that the Ravens have managed just 14.5 points per game in their two playoff games with Jackson at quarterback. Derrick Henry is also the second-leading rusher in playoff history in terms of average yards per game with 126.0.
Chicago at New Orleans
The Bears got some help getting into the playoffs and they may not have wanted to see the opponent they got handed in the first round given their history against the Saints over the last decade. Drew Brees is 5-0 with a 10:0 TD:INT ratio against the Bears and the Bears have lost six straight to the Saints. While the Bears passing defense is quite good this year, they’ll be put to the test facing Brees who also has averaged the most passing yards per game in the playoffs (310.4) of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. The Bears have been good at shutting down the top target for their opponent through the air ranking second in the league in DVOA vs. number-one WRs but Thomas is averaging nearly 100 yards receiving a game in his playoff career. David Montgomery might also find tough sledding against the second-ranked Saints’ rush defense based on Rush DVOA.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Cleveland had to win last week to make the playoffs and now they get a rematch in the Steel City. On paper, this is a big mismatch given the Steelers defense and the lack of a pass defense for Cleveland. However, they play the games for this reason. Both Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger have very similar stats in terms of yards per game and nearly identical TD per INT numbers (3.25 for Mayfield and 3.3 for Roethlisberger) and Mayfield has a slightly better Passer Rating. The key to this game will be how well the Browns can run the ball this week. They have 17 (at last count) players and staff on the Covid list including their head coach, and how the Steelers usually defend the run. Here’s a sneaky stat though, Pittsburgh has allowed 158.7 rushing yards per game inside the AFC North this year so the Browns may have a shot at the 148.4 yards rushing they’ve averaged per game this year.