When I was reviewing the update target leaderboard for this season, I was struck by how many of the target leaders have bad quarterbacks, or at least did going into the season. Keenan Allen , Stefon Diggs and (to a lesser extent) Terry McLaurin all slid in drafts because of quarterback concerns, but they are currently in the top six in targets and the top 10 in fantasy points among wide receivers. Allen Robinson is in that group as well, though nobody was scared of his quarterback because of his long history of success despite never playing with a good quarterback.
We have obviously seen good receivers have their seasons torpedoed by bad quarterback play in the past, but I don’t know that I can think of any examples of that this season. Amari Cooper probably counts, though he is still 19th in fantasy points among receivers, and we couldn’t have predicted before the season that both Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton would get injured. The point is, good receivers usually get targeted a lot throughout a season, and usually convert those targets into fantasy points. As we say all the time, it obviously matters who is throwing the targets, but it might not matter as much as we think.
Note: the chart below does not include Wednesday’s Steelers-Ravens game.
The Vikings had four players catch seven passes each Sunday, but it is doubtful we see that again this season. Kirk Cousins threw a season-high 45 passes thanks to the Vikings falling behind 21-10 in the third quarter.
Bisi Johnson and Chad Beebe each caught all of their targets, while Kyle Rudolph had eight targets and Justin Jefferson had 13. I don’t necessarily think Adam Thielen ’s absence was good for Justin Jefferson, but it is nice to see he can deliver when Thielen is out.
Speaking of number two receivers delivering when the stud receiver is out, Calvin Ridley caught six of nine targets for 50 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas. It was Ridley’s first touchdown in three games Jones has missed, though Ridley topped 100 receiving yards in each of the two previous games.
Jarvis Landry finally showed what he could do with Odell Beckham out and reasonably decent weather. Landry caught eight of 11 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown Sunday, and while not all matchups will be as good as this one against the Jaguars, Landry has reaffirmed his place as a solid WR2 the rest of the way.
For the second time this season, a running back led the league in targets for the week. This time it was Austin Ekeler , returning from injury to catch 11 of 16 targets for 85 yards in addition to 14 carries for 44 yards. I’m not convinced Ekeler is a significantly better player than Mike Davis or J.D. McKissic . The difference is Ekeler gets this type of usage nearly every week, whereas Davis hasn’t topped six targets since Week 5. That being said, there is no doubt Ekeler is a must-start the rest of the way.
Sean Payton admitted afterwards that the offensive gameplan changed once it was announced the Broncos literally did not have a quarterback for their game. I don’t think we can take much away from Michael Thomas ’s four receptions on six targets for 50 yards considering Taysom Hill only had 16 pass attempts. The Saints may want to play this way in every game Hill starts, but they probably won’t be successful. I think this is basically Thomas’s floor, which means I’m starting him every week almost no matter what.
Sterling Shepard had at least eight targets for the fourth time in five games Sunday, catching seven of eight for 64 yards. It looks like his consistent PPR production should continue even with Colt McCoy at quarterback, though his ceiling remains limited.
In general, when a receiver’s production doesn’t match the targets, I tend to believe the targets. Michael Pittman’s two receptions on nine targets Sunday may be an exception. Most of Pittman’s targets weren’t particularly close, and he still has four receptions or fewer in seven of his eight games. Pittman has seven or more targets in three of his last four games, and that, combined with a favorable schedule the next three weeks, makes him a borderline fantasy play going forward.
I think it’s interesting Breshad Perriman hasn’t gotten the Nelson Agholor treatment, as I think they are similar players getting similar usage. Perriman has at least seven targets in three of his last five games and that, in addition to his big play ability, makes him a high-upside play for seasonal games and DFS.
I hesitate to assume anything is going to remain the same for very long, but it certainly looks like a hierarchy has been established in Tampa Bay’s receiving corps. Chris Godwin appears to be the safest, with at least six receptions in three straight games and at least nine targets in two straight. Mike Evans has at least nine targets and a touchdown in three straight games, with three, five and six receptions in those games. He is the touchdown-maker, but his floor is lower than Godwin’s on days he doesn’t find the end zone. Antonio Brown Brown appears to be the wild card, with three targets in Week 12 after he had 13 targets in Week 11. He still hasn’t found the end zone, but I still think we have to figure he has a very high ceiling.
Rob Gronkowski is about as steady as it gets for a tight end, with at least six targets in eight of his last 10 games. He caught six of seven targets for 106 yards against Kansas City, and the Week 13 bye should help keep him fresh for the fantasy playoffs.
What I wrote at the beginning mostly applies to very good receivers over a full season. In the short term, bad quarterback play can derail an otherwise rock-solid fantasy receiver, as we saw with Tyler Boyd ’s three receptions for 15 yards on six targets Sunday. Boyd set career-highs in receptions, targets and yards last season despite terrible quarterback play for much of it, so it would be unreasonable to think he couldn’t do it again, but I certainly wouldn’t want to have to count on him against Miami this week.
Despite D.K. Metcalf’s 13 targets Sunday, he still trails Tyler Lockett by seven on the season. Lockett trails Metcalf by 20 fantasy points, but I feel like Lockett’s season is still underrated, even if nearly half of his production came in two three-touchdown games. I think Lockett has another huge game coming, and he will probably be in some of my DFS lineups until it happens.