Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

O/U: 54.5

Money Line: Chiefs -167; Bills +145

Betting Trends:

  • Kansas City is 7-9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
  • Buffalo is 12-6 ATS this season.
  • The total has hit the over in 12 of Buffalo's 18 games.

Weather: Low 30s, cloudy w/ showers (70% chance of rain) and winds blowing NE 10-15mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Chiefs lead series 4-1

Average Margin of Victory – 7.4

Last Match-Up – Chief beat the Bills 26-17 in Buffalo during Week 6 of this season

Notable Injuries:



Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):


vs Pass: 16th

vs Run: 31st


vs Pass: 12th

vs Run: 17th

Props We’re Watching:

Passing Yards:

Josh Allen – 305.5 (over & under -112)

Patrick Mahomes – 310.5 (over & under -112)

Rushing Yards:

Josh Allen – 33.5 (over & under -112)

Devin Singletary – 39.5 (over & under -112)

Darrel Williams – 41.5 (over & under -112)

Receiving Yards:

Stefon Diggs – 94.5 (over & under -112)

Cole Beasley – 46.5 (over & under -112)

John Brown – 52.5 (over & under -112)

Dawson Knox – 23.5 (over & under -112)

Tyreek Hill – 77.5 (over & under -112)

Travis Kelce – 94.5 (over -118, under -106)

**Remember – just because you don’t see a player listed below, doesn’t mean he is a complete fade.


Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – I would love to think people are scared off from the concussion and that he didn’t receive clearance until Friday, but that’s just not going to be the case. Mahomes will remain a very popular choice and why wouldn’t he? He’s got the skill-set and the weaponry to dominate a Bills defense that has seen its fair share of struggles throughout the season and in the playoffs.

Josh Allen , QB BUF – Allen has thrown the ball at least 35 times in six of his last seven games and the one time he didn’t was because he was removed from the game in the third quarter of the Bills Week 17 game against the Dolphins. While the Bills need to be disciplined and run the football against the Chiefs, they will remain a pass-heavy team and this game, albeit in the rain, will end up a shootout between Allen and Mahomes. Only one will fit into your Captain spot. The other should still be in your lineup.

Travis Kelce , TE KC – He has been the one constant in the Chiefs passing game and he sees massive targets in each and every game. His production is unmatched at the tight end position, so if you want to save a few bucks and not use Mahomes or Allen as your Captain, Kelce makes for a phenomenal play.


Tyreek Hill , WR KC – Is there anyone in this game with a higher ceiling? Probably not. He had 15 touchdowns this season with three multi-score games and can rattle off 100-plus yards in the blink of an eye. Tre’Davious White isn’t going to be guarding him in the slot which makes it even better for using Hill as Taron Johnson just doesn’t have the wheels to keep pace.

Stefon Diggs , WR BUF – He’s Allen’s No. 1 target and continues to be fed game in and game out. The oblique issue is a thing of the past, not that we were even worried as Diggs has rattled off 100-yard efforts in five of his last six games with six touchdowns in that span. Week 6 wasn’t exactly a master-class from Diggs as he totaled just 46 yards, but he found the end zone in that one and is expected to find it again this week. Maybe even more than once!

Darrel Williams , RB KC – Williams has done more than enough in recent weeks that, even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire expected to play, he should still see substantial work out of the backfield in this one. He is definitely Andy Reid’s choice at the goal line, so even if he doesn’t post huge yardage totals, the possibility of him being the one to punch in is pretty strong in short-yardage situations.


John Brown , WR BUF – With Cole Beasley now being off the injury report, you can assume the ownership will be heavy on him. That’s where we turn to Brown who does a better job of stretching the field. Also, not having a fully healthy Gabriel Davis should translate to a higher snap count for Brown. Let the masses jump on Beasley while you get strong results at lower ownership.

Devin Singletary , RB BUF – He’s listed as a dart-throw because, while we all know the Bills should run heavy with Singletary because that’s the way you attack the Chiefs, most will avoid him in DFS because he’s seen double-digit carries just once in the last six Bills games. There is obvious risk here but if you’re playing in a large-field GPP, you have to roster someone everyone else is avoiding but still has potential given the match-up.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – He is expected to play, but perhaps the questionable tag will keep ownership low despite his explosive 161-yard effort against the Bills back in Week 6. CEH could be strong between the 20s if the ankle is ok, but you do have to be wary of the issue when he makes his cuts. This is the contrarian play, believe it or not, as most will have Williams in their lineups.


Anthony Sherman , FB KC – You might be able to go back to last year’s Super Bowl and find the pre-game audio from me on the Fantasy Alarm Show when I told you all to play Kyle Juszczyk as a contrarian dart-throw. Well, this is my call for this year. Andy Reid is feeling the swagger from his ballsy call last week to have Chad Henne throw on 4th & inches and he’s going to try and throw things at the Bills they haven’t seen yet. Give me The Sausage on a wheel route for a TD and we’ll all be drinking the sweet nectar of the end zone!

Honorable Mentions: Isaiah McKenzie , Dawson Knox , Demarcus Robinson


Click here for Bucs/Packers Showdown Playbook