Updated: Friday, Feb. 9 at 1:45pm ET
Everyone knows the Super Bowl is a hotbed of betting activity and Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers is no exception. You can bet against the spread, you can choose from a seemingly limitless number of game and player props offered across the books and you can also bet a number of novelty items as well.
You want to bet on how many touchdown passes Patrick Mahomes throws or how many rushing yards Christian McCaffrey picks up? Do you want to bet on how long it will take Reba McEntire to get through the National Anthem or on the style of Taylor Swift’s Super Bowl shirt? No problem. You can even bet what color the Gatorade will be that is poured over the head of the winning coach. It is the ultimate football betting bonanza and we’ve got everything you need to cash your bets right here on Fantasy Alarm.
This piece will begin with the basics, but you’ll want to bookmark this page and visit every day up until kickoff for the big game as I intend to update it daily with more bets to make, player prop thoughts and a variety of other insights to help you cash your bets and walk away from Super Bowl 58 a winner. So buckle up and get ready. Even though it’s February of 2023 we’ve got one game left for the 2023 NFL season and you don’t want to miss out.
Super Bowl 58 Pick Against the Spread
- Spread: 49ers -2
- Total: 47.5
If you are betting the 49ers to win and cover, you’ve got history on your side. Favorites have gone 37-19 straight-up (28-26-2 against the spread) and the winning team is 48-7-2 against the spread. That means there have been only nine Super Bowls in which the favorite has won but failed to cover (one game was a pick ‘em).
If you look at all the data surrounding both teams, you’ll also see the edge tip towards San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey is a beast going up against a defense that finished 27th in DVOA against the run and has allowed an average of 113 rushing yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns between the regular season and the playoffs. They also ranked first overall in passing offense and have weapons galore.
But then there’s the Chiefs and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and no matter what your feelings are about them, experience goes a very long way here. The talent levels of Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice are off the charts and Reid has this team looking and playing like a well-oiled machine. The 49ers may run heavy and grab an early lead, but Mahomes has thrived at picking apart zone coverage and with his ability to extend plays with his legs, I expect him to find his targets downfield and lead his team to their third Super Bowl championship in the last five years.
And if that’s not enough and you need more ATS data, then here you go: Kansas City is 12-7-1 ATS this season, including the playoffs. They’ve covered the spread in their last five games and are 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog. The 49ers, on the other hand, were 9-10 ATS this season and are 1-4 ATS over their last five games and haven’t covered the spread in their last three-straight.
Pick: Chiefs +2
Super Bowl 58 Over/Under Pick
If you are betting the game total, Vegas is making it awfully difficult with the 47.5 total. It’s the lowest Super Bowl game total since Super Bowl 50 when the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers went under the 43.5 mark. Historically, the over is 29-28 in the Super Bowl, but it is just 1-4 over the last five and we’ve got two very good defenses here. The 49ers ranked fourth overall according to DVOA and the Chiefs were seventh. Both handled the pass better than the run which is likely to play for this game as well.
For the season, including the playoffs, the under was 14-6 in Chiefs games (9-5 when the total was 47.5 or lower) and 8-10-1 in 49ers games (6-8-1 when the total was 47.5 or lower). The under is 2-3 over the last five games for the 49ers, but 5-1 over the last six for the Chiefs. They say that defense wins championships, so we’re going to favor some defensive metrics overall.
Pick: Under 47.5
Favorite Super Bowl 58 Game Props to Bet
My game prediction has the Kansas City Chiefs winning this one, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a close game, that tends to be the case, more often than not. But in looking through the different offerings, I find it quite interesting that the odds for either team to win by six points or fewer are sitting in excess of +300 even when the last two Super Bowls were each decided by three points. Is this a 27-20 game? Feels like it, so we won’t go bonkers with the winning margin and take an easier line that still has plus-odds attached.
Pick: Chiefs by 1-13 (+160 on BetMGM)
Opening Kickoff Outcome
Neither kicker wants to see a return touchdown, especially from the 49ers side of things. Jake Moody had a touchback rate of just 62.39-percent this season, but the rookie is very likely to be amped up for his first Super Bowl game and if the 49ers kick off first, it’s going in the end zone. Harrison Butker, meanwhile, had a 83.3-percent touchback rate this season, 10th-highest in the NFL. This is not a standalone bet because of the odds. No sense in making it on its own, but as a part of a parlay? Yes, please.
Pick: Touchback (-375 on BetMGM)
Super Bowl 58 Same Game Parlay to Bet
Bet Boost from Bet365 (+300)
More Super Bowl 58 Player Props to Bet
Isiah Pacheco player props: over 66.5 rushing yards (-110 on Bet365)
He’s cleared this mark each of his last four games and continues to see enough volume that we expect him to clear it again. The 49ers have a great pass-rush but to neutralize their edge-rushers, you just run it up the gut. The potential return of Jerick McKinnon doesn’t detract from Pacheco’s rushing work; just the receiving end.
Christian McCaffrey player props: over 90.5 rushing yards (-110 on Bet365)
We’ll stick to the rushing yards alone here as the Chiefs allowed an average of just 27.6 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. But allowing an average of over 113 rushing yards per game, including here in the playoffs, has me locking his rushing yards down here.
Christian McCaffrey player props: 2+ touchdowns (+225 on BetMGM)
While he’s not the only player capable of this feat on Super Bowl Sunday, he’s the only one I’m willing to bet he does it. He’s had two touchdowns in each of the 49ers playoff games this season and has multiple touchdowns in five other games this season. Even with Deebo Samuel likely to get a goal-line rush at some point, McCaffrey still comes out on top.
Rashee Rice player props: over 6.5 receptions (-115 on BetMGM)
He’s gone over this mark in six of his last nine games and averaged nine targets per game over that span. It is apparent that, next to Kelce, Rice is the only guy Mahomes fully trusts. The rookie gets the job done in the big game and starts to earn legendary status in Kansas City.
Brock Purdy player props: under 31.5 pass attempts (-130 on BetMGM)
I've looked through the game logs for Purdy as well as dialing into some of Kyle Shanahan's tendencies regarding play-calling and they spell out the same thing – when the Niners are facing a pass defense that ranked in the top half of the league, Purdy's pass attempts, save for one game against Baltimore when he had 32 attempts, dip under this mark. If my read on the gameplan for San Francisco is correct, Purdy won't be throwing more than 30 passes. 31 at the most!
Deebo Samuel player props: over 4.5 receptions (-140 on Bet365)
Benn looking at some coverage data and my man Connor Allen from 4-for-4 Football had a very interesting tweet-thread you should check out where he outlines eight stats to know for the Super Bowl and why. One of them helps support my Pacheco prop above. In two others he's looking at target-share for Deebo and both tweets make you want to invest. Not yards, though. Just receptions. We know how the Chiefs secondary has done limiting opposing wide receivers, so expect a lot of quick, underneath routes. There's some juice, obviously, but if you're building a same-game parlay, this should be a good one to include.
NEW - Jake Moody player props: over 1.5 FG made (+105 on BetMGM)
When I look at my narratives and make my final score prediction, I actually have both kickers making two field goals apiece. But the odds are simply better for Moody than they are for Harrison Butker. Both defenses have been rock-solid and the Chiefs, especially, have done a great job in stalling drives and forcing the opposition into punts or settling for a field goal. They've only allowed two field goals over three games in the playoffs, but again, this 49ers offense is strong and should move the ball into Chiefs territory enough to give Moody a couple of chances.
NEW - Dre Greenlaw player props: over 8.5 tackles + assists (+100 on BetMGM)
While Greenlaw has gone under this number in each of his last two games, he's gone over this mark in five games this season. And what do those games have in common? They came against teams that featured their tight end in the passing game. Greenlaw has had double-digit tackles+ assists when facing Mark Andrews, T.J, Hockenson, Trey McBride, Logan Thomas (Eric Bienimy's offense) and Tyler Higbee (Cooper Kupp was out injured) and now will be tasked with covering Travis Kelce. I expect the trend to continue.
Super Bowl 58 Novelty Prop Bets
Super Bowl Gatorade Color Odds & Pick: Red (+700 on BetMGM)
The last time these teams squared off in the Super Bowl, the Gatorade was orange and in the last 23 Super Bowls, it was used five different times. Blue and clear (water) came in next with four times each, tied with no Gatorade bath, followed by yellow and purple, each three times. Never red? Really? I could use the “it’s due” theory, but instead will lay some action here because it’s just so obvious. The primary color of each team’s uniform is red, Taylor Swifts’ lipstick is always red and, if I’m not mistaken (shout it out to the Swifites), TayTay has an album entitled Red. Easy enough, right? Not for a full unit, but if you’re having some fun, we like it.
Super Bowl National Anthem Length: Reba McEntire under 89.5 seconds
Not something to invest too heavily on, but after doing some research on Reba, her style and past National Anthem's sung, we are definitely leaning on the under. Chris Stapleton surprised everyone last year going under by just a second or two, but based off recent performance, by Reba, this one won't be a surprise. She's not one to slow the pace, she doesn't use a lot of runs (hardly any really) in her singing and the last big-game Anthem performance was in Game 3 of the 1997 World Series which clocked in around 83 seconds. We'll expect the Queen of Country to be efficient here.
NEW - Will there be a punt return for a TD? Yes (+1400 on BetMGM)
This is one to bet only if you bought into my revenge-game narrative for Richie James that I was playing around with for DFS Showdown lineups. He was drafted by the 49ers and spent his first three seasons in San Francisco. Has he ever had a punt return for a touchdown? Nope. He had a kick return for a touchdown in his rookie season, but nothing since. Has Ray Ray McCloud, punt returner for the 49ers? Nope. But he did lead the league in return yards back in 2022. Both teams have solid special teams units which is why the odds are what they are, but since there's never been a punt return for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, this feels like a good time to start. I've got Richie James locked into a DFS lineup and will double-down here for a half-unit.
**Please note that I am feverishly looking for Taylor Swift props, but as of right now, none of the main books have them. That might change as the week goes on, but we’ll keep digging. In the meantime, if you want to bet it, there is just no way Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift on the field at the Super Bowl, even after the Chiefs win.