We are already a quarter of the way through the fantasy season and we have a pretty good idea of what changes need to be made to our teams. We also have a much better understanding of player's values. Hopefully everyone is sitting on a 4-0 or 3-1 record thus far, but no matter what your record is, it's important to keep up with the trends and continue to stay on top of your game. If you have a losing record, don't fret, the season is far from over and you can still surge your way into the playoffs by making the right moves. Feel free to shoot me feedback or anything else in the live chats or on Twitter @JustinVreeland. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Stock Up
Leonard Fournette , RB JAX – Coming into this week, everyone wanted to talk about Fournette like he was the worst running back in football. However, if you actually watch the guy play you would know that most of his issues have not been on him. Last season, Fournette faced more eight man fronts than any other starter in the league at 35.3-percent of the time. He is up there once again this year, facing stacked boxes 26.4-percent of the time (seventh highest among starters). Far too often has he been tackled the moment he touches the football and I am not sure how you could have put the blame on him. Marrone agreed and even called out his offensive line to step it up in their run blocking this week. They did play better and Fournette also played extremely well, breaking tackles and running over defenders at a very high rate. He finished the game with 29 carries for 225 yards, and added in two receptions for 20 yards. This was his first big fantasy week of the season, but there are a lot reasons to like him this year. He has 17, 19, 21, and 31 touches through the first four games. That makes him third in the NFL in touches only behind CMC and Chubb. He averaged 3.7 targets and 2.8 receptions per game his rookie year, he followed that up by averaging 3.3 and 2.8 in his second season, but so far this year he is averaging 5.8 targets and 4.0 receptions per game, which is a huge boost to his PPR value. The only issue he has had to this point in the year is that he still has zero touchdows, but touchdowns are volatile and that will soon change. The buy-low window is now closed.
Chris Godwin , WR TB – Godwin went into Sunday's game listed as questionable, but he sure looked fully healthy during the game, hauling in 12 of 14 targets for 172 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is off to a fantastic start this year with 26 receptions (on 32 targets), 386 yards, and four touchdowns. To this point, he has only had one poor game from a fantasy standpoint (Week 3), and he is someone that you can safely play in your fantasy lineup on a weekly basis. There will be some down games where he plays second fiddle to Evans, but overall the production will be there. All that being said, now may not be a bad time to try and sell-high on Godwin, if the return is hefty, as it's difficult to put a lot of faith into Winston and Godwin's catch rate is currently 77-percent (it was 62-percent both last year and his rookie year).
Austin Hooper , TE ATL – Hooper had a big game on Sunday, hauling in nine of eleven targets for 130 yards. It was his first 100 yard game of the year, but already his third game with more than 65 and he has been a nice fantasy asset in three out of four games thus far (Week 2 being his lone down week). Through four games he has 28 receptions (on 33 targets) for 307 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is currently the number two tight end in PPR leagues, trailing the leader, Evan Engram , by less than two points. His numbers are up across the board. His 85-percent catch rate is up for the third consecutive year, his yards per game is up for a third consecutive year (76.8 yards per game currently), and he is on pace for the most touchdowns of his career. He is also on pace for 132 targets, which would shatter the 88 that he had last year, and while I doubt he reaches 132, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes over 100 this season. Don't be surprised if Hooper finishes in the top-five of scoring at the tight end position this year.
New England Patriots D/ST – Not too often will I be writing about a defense here, but the Patriots have been stellar to this point. They have only given up a total of 15 points against this season and two of those points came on extra points off of touchdowns completely out of the Pats defense's control. They have racked up 18 sacks and have five or more in three straight games. They have at least one interception in all four games this year and have a total of 10 already. They have even managed to return three of those interceptions for a touchdown. New England’s defense has even blocked a kick this year! In leagues with standard scoring settings for defenses, the Patriots have already racked up 86 fantasy points, which is 34 points more than the second most (Bears). They already have two weeks with more than 25 points and they have scored double-digits in all four games. While they haven't played great offenses yet (Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills), it's very impressive nonetheless. They face the Redskins, Giants, and Jets in their next three games and they should easily be able to continue their hot start.
Stock Down
Will Fuller , WR HOU – Fuller was a guy that a lot of people were excited about this year (including myself), but he has been a massive letdown to this point. He has 14 receptions for 183 yards and zero touchdowns on 23 targets. His highest scoring output of the year (in PPR leagues) is just 10.1 points and he has scored under nine points three times, including this week's 5.3 point effort. He is second on the team in targets, so getting looks has not been the issue. However, he has the worst catch rate (61-percent) of any of the six players on the team with double-digit targets. He has produced fewer yards than Stills, despite nine more targets, and of the four players on the team with at least 14 targets he is the only one that has not found the end zone. At this point you can't put him in your starting lineup in any format, but I don't think you can cut him yet, the upside is still too high and he can breakout for a big game on any given Sunday. It's also worth noting that Watson is only averaging 235 passing yards per game thus far, which is down 25 yards from last season. I wouldn't expect that to continue all year.
Adrian Peterson , RB WAS – Peterson is toast. An injury to Guice opened the door for AP, but he hasn't done anything with the opportunity to this point. He has double-digit carries in three straight games, but hasn't topped 37 rushing yards in any of them. To this point he has 90 rushing yards on 33 carries (2.73 YPC) and he has three receptions for a whopping four yards. His latest game – 11 carries for 28 yards – came against a poor defense in the Giants. Age catches up with everyone, and it appears that it finally has for AP. He has a tough matchup with the Patriots in Week 5 and fantasy owners can't expect much of anything from him in that one. He doesn't hold any fantasy value at this point and he's not someone you are ever going to want to have in your starting lineup.
Kalen Ballage , RB MIA – A tweet from me on Sunday "Ballage might be the worst running back I have ever seen in my life." This was after seeing him drop an easy pass for what felt like at least the fifth time this year. He has just three receptions on 10 targets this year and had "racked up" 29 rushing yards on 19 carries this year (1.5 YPC). It appears the Dolphins are finally starting to understand that Drake is the best back on their roster and not Ballage. Drake finished with nine carries for 44 yards and halued in three passes for 29 yards. Not an explosive line, but far superior to Ballage. At his point Ballage is not even worth holding onto and I don't see him making a fantasy impact even if Miami were to trade Drake. Even Mark Walton has more value than Ballage at this point.
Kirk Cousins , QB MIN – Cousins has been incredibly awful to this point in the year. He currently comes in ranked 26th among QBs through four games. Of the QBs that have played four full games he ranks dead last in fantasy points. He hasn't scored 15 fantasy points in any game this year and he is coming off a seven point effort in Week 4. He has 735 pass yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. He hasn't topped 235 passing yards in any game this year, despite having two games with north of 30 pass attempts. The Vikings are running a lot more this year and and Cousins isn't getting the job done when they do run pass plays. He has a juicy matchup on tap this week with the Giants, but I still don't see anyway that he can be inserted into your starting lineup based on what we have seen.
Stock to Watch
Marcus Mariota , QB TEN – Mariota has been far better than anyone could have expected to this point. He currently ranks 12th among quarterbacks, which would put him as a borderline starter. Through four games he has 933 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He has done enough to peak our interest, but not enough to put a whole lot of faith in him. Keep in mind that he has just 119 pass attempts this year, which is only more than Cousins among quarterbacks that have played four full games. His zero interceptions make him one of two quarterbackss that have yet to throw one (Russell Wilson ). He has some tough matchups in his next two games (Bills, Broncos), so it will be interesting to see how he performs.