Those of you expecting me to start off this year’s Ultimate Tight End series by victory-lapping our Evan Engram pick last year - I hate to disappoint you. So I won’t. We were right. Everyone else was wrong. Engram was going outside the top 20 tight ends in ADP. And he finished top five in the final fantasy football tight end rankings. Sure he had a couple down weeks but, whether you drafted him like we did or added him off the waiver wire, he was as solid of a sleeper as you get. So there. Everyone can EAT IT. 

Alright good. Now that that important part of the process is done, let’s move on to what you really came for. Your 2023 guide to the tight end landscape! Here is a little roadmap of how the series will progress. I know I said this is technically the first article of the series but the first thing you should read is the article below titled What Makes An Elite Tight End, which has now been updated with the most recent data. 

1) What Makes an Elite Tight End - Found here. 

2) Standalone Tight Ends - These are the elite guys. This is the article you are reading right now. 

3) The Fades - Everyone loves to hate on this article. And, therefore, it is my favorite. And, since we have been doing this series, no tight end listed in the fades article has finished as a top-five tight end. Not last year. Or the year before that. Or the year before that. Or the year before that. 

4) Yin & Yang Tight End - This is everyone else’s favorite. The short and sweet of this strategy is to wait on tight end then take two - a safe guy you can start early (Yin) and the riskiest option with the highest upside (Yang). That’s how we found guys like Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas, Evan Engram etc. Technically, if you want to skip ahead, there is a copy of my Yin & Yang Tight End rankings that I always keep up to date available in the 2023 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide under the Tight End Dynamic Rankings (I now do this form of rankings for all positions by popular demand in the draft guide as well). Those rankings will be updated regularly right until kickoff so you probably should have access to that if you're going to play the Yin-Yang TE game with us.

 

Elite NFL Tight Ends

The goal of this article - and this entire series in fact - is not to have a “serviceable” tight end. As we pointed out in the first article "What Makes An Elite Tight End"," there isn’t a huge difference from the mid to back end TE1s to the TE2s. So, for us, there are only two options. We spend a high pick on a player that has “difference-making upside”. Or we wait, use that draft capital elsewhere, and cobble together safety/upside via the Yin & Yang Tight end strategy. Regardless of which strategy you are going with, you really should read that article I just linked. Go ahead and do that real quick then come right back.

Wow, you are a fast reader! Now that you definitely went and read that whole article, I will share the quick bullet points of what makes an elite tight end. As a loyal reader, I know you would never just skip to these spark notes of that article but it’s nice to have a refresher. Tight ends with elite upside should:

  • Be a top 2 target on their team
  • Block on less than 15% of pass snaps (ideally, around 7% or less)
  • Line up at wide receiver often
  • Create for himself vs. man to man
  • Have a knack for scoring
  • Run real, high aDot routes
  • Run real fast
  • Be part of a high-volume offense

There we go - everyone is on the same page. Now we can get into the tight ends with elite upside in 2023 without needing a trade or an injury to another pass catcher on the team. They are split into three tiers  - The Chosen One, The Next Best Thing, and Difference Making Upside. And, as always with this series, we’ll break our analysis into three sections so that you can make the decision for yourself. It’s your fantasy team, after all. Each player will have these sections:

THE GOOD - All the reasons this player could have high upside this year

THE BAD - All the reasons this player could suck

THE ADVICE - How I’m treating them based on current ADP (you can skip this part if you want but just keep in mind that I’m amazing at this)

2023 Fantasy Football Elite Tight Ends

THE CHOSEN ONE 

Unless you have been in some sort of cryogenic chamber in a fallout bunker for a decade, you should know that Travis Kelce is the undisputed top tight end. And he makes for the perfect example of what it looks like when everything goes perfectly right.

 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

The Good

Kelce is the poster child so let’s just take our bullet points from above and cross them off.

  • Be a top 2 target on their team
    • Kelce was one of only four tight ends to LEAD his team in targets
  • Block on less than 15% of pass snaps (ideally, around 7% or less)
    • Only 24 pass block snaps all year which is 3.6%
  • Line up at wide receiver often
    • 335 inline, 333 slot, 239 wide, 6 backfield. That’s 63% of his snaps at WR
  • Create for himself vs. man to man
  • Have a knack for scoring
  • Run real, high aDot routes
    • There is no route Kelce can’t run
  • Run real fast
    • This is one of only two knocks on Kelce but he’s “fast enough”
  • Be part of a high-volume offense
    • The Chiefs have been top five in pass attempts three years in a row

The Bad

This section is going to be equally short. We mentioned one knock on Kelce which is speed but volume and his elusiveness helps him make up for that. The other one is age. Travis Kelce turned 33 in October over last season. There are only two tight ends with a 1,000-yard season at the age of 33 or above. Travis Kelce is one, can you guess the other? It’s this guy.

If you guessed “Pete Retzlaff in 1965" congratulations - you’re either a real weirdo or you read this article last year. The only other guys with multiple 1,000-yard seasons at 30 or older were Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen but they were done doing that at 32 or younger. So each additional year Kelce comes out and has 1,000+ yards is an anomaly and adds to his legend. 

The Advice

I will never fault anyone for taking Travis Kelce. Even at 1 if that’s what you want to do. Tight end is a tough position and, when you draft Travis Kelce, you don’t need to think about it. But this section every year offers me the chance to share an important piece of advice. LEAN INTO WHAT YOU ARE GOOD AT. Personally, I will take Travis Kelce if he slides but I am contractually obligated to study the tight end position and help folks find breakouts in the later rounds and off the wire. If I fill my TE spot with Kelce, I’m not playing to my strengths. If you love finding breakout WRs, don’t go Zero RB and draft six straight WRs. Same with QB or RB or whatever else. Lean into your own skillset! So, if you don’t want to worry about TE then take Travis Kelce early and focus on other positions. But, if you want to play Yin & Yang tight end with us, wait on it. And we’ll go to the looney bin together.

THE NEXT BEST THING

We wanted Travis Kelce but mom said, “We have Travis Kelce at home”. This is what is at home.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

The Good

Mark Andrews’ 2021 season is exactly what we are talking about when we say “difference-making upside”. We want tight ends with top-five upside but not every top-five tight end is a true difference maker. Last year Evan Engram was a nice surprise but he had his inconsistent weeks at times. Mark Andrews in 2021 had a top-five season - of all time.

The key to that was the Ravens actually throwing the ball a normal number of times. In virtually every other year they were bottom five in pass attempts. In 2020 they were dead last. Last year they were bottom five again. But, in 2021 for one brief, shining moment, they were ninth. And that catapulted Andrews to the level of super mega star. Now that Greg Roman is out and Todd Monken is in to bring his Air Raid offense to town, we could see that explosion once again. Lamar Jackson straight-up told us he expects to run less and throw more.

As for Andrews checking boxes? We mentioned it’s him and Kelce then no one else when it comes to success vs. man-to-man. Well, when it comes to the red area, it’s Andrews and no one else. He routinely leads the league in red zone targets and, over the last two years, his 23 ENDZONE targets are six more than the next highest player. Kelce only has 13 himself. Lamar LOVES Andrews in that area.

The last, and arguably most important, part for Andrews is his deployment. Because he’s a big guy and a decent run blocker, I don’t think folks truly understand how good his alignment is. Andrews played 74% of his snaps at wide receiver last year. And he blocked on ONE pass play. ONE. That’s 0.2%. It practically brings a tear to my eye. 

The Bad

If we have gripes with Travis Kelce, we are going to have them with everyone. And the big one here is pretty obvious. They added a bunch of weapons. Rashod Bateman missed most of last year and he’ll be back. Regardless of what you think about Odell Beckham, they paid him a lot of money so they like him. And Lamar Jackson is already calling Zay Flowers “The Joystick” despite 17 other players already having that nickname. We liked it better when it was just Andrews and maybe one other WR like Hollywood Brown or Rashod Bateman.

The new offensive coordinator is the other big one. We mentioned that it could be a positive but it also might be a negative. With our late-round picks, we lean into uncertainty. Uncertainty is our friend, it’s how we get discounts. With our early-round picks, we want certainty. Look at the Chiefs with Mahomes, Kelce, Reid every year. Very few changes. With a new offensive coordinator coming to town, we don’t know for sure his plans. We’d like to think he continues to use Andrews like a wide receiver but they have a lot of wide receivers now. Just the idea of mixing things up has us a little nervous.

The Advice

As scary as change may be, getting Greg Roman out of there for ANYONE is a plus. Well, anyone except maybe Adam Gase or Urban Meyer. It’s reassuring to us that Todd Monken has essentially cultivated one of the top tight end receiving products in years at Georgia with Brock Bowers so he probably has a few TE tricks up his sleeve. And, despite what they have added at wide receiver, I still believe that Mark Andrews is the best pass catcher on the team. The overall increase in volume should be great for Andrews even if his target share takes a slight hit. I mean, Kyle Pitts has a MASSIVE target share but they throw so sparingly that it doesn't translate. But we'll get to him.

Here’s how I’m treating Andrews and how I believe you should treat him. Positional scarcity is great and all but no tight end has EVER finished as the #1 flex player. It’s been RBs a ton, it’s been WRs like Antonio Brown or Cooper Kupp, but never a tight end. So, what I do, is make a big list of every player I think can finish as the #1 flex player. When those players are gone, I start looking at Andrews or a QB. And, luckily enough, that’s actually right around his current ADP of ~30. So I’m willing to take Andrews in the third round when all my top dogs are gone. And he's an auto-pick for me anywhere in the fourth if he’s there.

DIFFERENCE MAKING UPSIDE 

This is the last tier of our elite tight ends. When we say “difference making upside” we are not just talking about “top five”. Some years there are five, six, seven tight ends that truly make a difference and sometimes there are one or two. We are looking for guys who are focal points of their offense that have heroic seasons. If you look at the top 50 tight end seasons of all time, they were all top two targets on their team. And, if you look at the top 50 TE seasons over the last 30 years, 49 of the players were top two targets on their team. The lone exception is #47 Martellus Bennet in 2014 with 128 targets behind Alshon Jeffery (145) and Matt Forte (130). The reason we say “top two” instead of one? Well, the greatest fantasy tight end season of all time was Rob Gronkowski in 2011 in a year Wes Welker got 173 targets. There's more than goes into it than that, but top two is where we need to live for tremendous upside.

Darren Waller, New York Giants

The Good

Darren Waller is a 6’6” 255 pound converted wide receiver who ran a 4.46. Does that sound like something we might be interested in? I mean, just check out his metrics via Player Profiler. He literally sets the bar at the 100th percentile for size-adjusted speed numbers. 

Ever since Antonio Brown froze his feet off and brought a fake helmet to practice, Darren Waller has been a focal point of the Raiders' offense. And his hallmark for fantasy has been the MONSTER games he’s capable of. His 2020 game against the New York Jets where he had 17 targets for 200 yards is an all-time great tight end game in PPR and that’s not even the game where he had the most targets - he had 19 in a game in 2021. In fact, over the last five years, he had three 15+ target games which is something only Zach Ertz has done. On top of that, he’s been one of the premier red zone targets over the last few years, rivaled only by Mark Andrews in terms of volume. Last year he got hurt but his .63 endzone target per game was second only behind George Kittle’s .73. 

The Raiders have since added options like Hunter Renfrow, Davante Adams, and now Jakobi Meyers which would typically have led us to fade the tight end but Waller escaped at the perfect time to the New York Giants. He could easily lead this team in targets when you consider his competition is a rookie (Jalin Hyatt), a guy coming off knee surgery (Wan’Dale Robinson), an undrafted free agent who had two good games, both vs. the lowly Vikings secondary (Isaiah Hodgins), and then about 10 slot receivers. Waller could once again take his spot atop the throne as a top target and red zone king. 

The Bad

The concerns here are pretty simple. The first is that we don’t know for sure where he fits into this Giants offense. As we said with Mark Andrews, this is a high enough pick we are using that we don’t want uncertainty. We simply cannot be sure that Waller is going to be a focal point of this offense or that Daniel Jones will be efficient at delivering him the football.

The other is related to age and injury which are often correlated. Waller is 30 years old now and will turn 31 in early September. He’s now missed significant time in back-to-back seasons. There have even been rumors trickling in that his recent injury history is part of why the Raiders decided to move him. He suffered an IT band strain and ankle injury in 2021 where he missed six games and in 2022, multiple hamstring injuries caused him to miss eight more. Those soft tissue injuries at 30 are scary. 

The Advice

I’ve said it time and time again - I’m not going to play Dr. Fortuneteller. Too many people tried that last year fading Christian McCaffrey for Jonathan Taylor and then it was JT that got hurt while CMC played 17 games. If the player is healthy in August, I’m not going to fade them by trying to guess how/when they get seriously hurt. If you know for sure a guy is going to get hurt, you should probably use your superpowers to warn them in advance. I mean, George Kittle hasn't played a full season in four years and Dallas Goedert deals with injuries regularly as well so where exactly are you going to go from here anyway? My policy is to just take the best players when they are available. Google “Darren Waller Giants” and nearly every news story is incredibly positive from him being called a “matchup nightmare” in camp to Daniel Jones raving about him. And Waller then raving about Jones. Haven’t seen this much raving in New York since Brooklyn warehouses in the 90s. 

The good news for us is that, based on our current composite ADP, Waller goes off the board as the TE7 at pick ~70. Which means he’s fairly easy to acquire. But I wouldn’t wait too long as there are sharp gamers out there willing to take him as high as TE3-4. Like me. Plus the TE position is prone to runs so they can all be gone in the blink of an eye. Pick 70 is late in round six and I’m ecstatic to get him there but I really start thinking about it in round five just to be safe. One of the very few early tight ends I’m willing to reach for a little bit. 

TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

The Good

The best word to describe TJ Hockenson is “solid”. He has a solid aDot at 7.9%. His pass block percentage improved after he went from the Lions (12.1%) to the Vikings (8.7%). We want that number under seven but it’s solid. We mentioned how Andrews and Kelce are up near ~60 catches vs. man-to-man over the last two years while the next highest is 30 - well, Hockenson is that guy with a solid 30. And over that span Hock is top five in end zone targets with 15 as well - it’s not 23 like Andrews but it's… well you get it.

He was also absolutely PEPPERED with targets after arriving in Minnesota - they clearly wanted to get their money’s worth. In fact, from Week Eight on when he arrived, Hockenson got the 13th most targets of any player with 85. That’s a 130+ target pace and well within the land of difference-making upside. In his second year with the squad, he and Kirk Cousins could really get on the same page. 

The Bad

The main “bad” for Hockenson is mostly out of his control. Justin Jefferson is an absolute target VACUUM. And they just used a first-round pick on Jordan Addison. That could threaten his spot as a top two target on the team and we talked about why that is so important in our tight end bible.

And Hockenson needs those targets. A guy like George Kittle who runs a 4.52 can get away with fewer routes run and targets because that speed is in the top 10 percent of tight ends and he’s capable of breaking off big plays. Hockenson runs a 4.7 so he’s not likely to bust off 60-70 yard plays any time soon. Last year he did improve by breaking 10 tackles with a YAC/REC of 5 yards but that’s still not world-beating. And the year before that he wasn’t as elusive so his YAC/REC was only 3.3. He’s not going to lead this team in targets without an injury to JJ so he doesn’t quite have the path that some of these other guys have. 

The Advice

This is where you and I might diverge in our thinking and that’s okay - as long as we are both staying within the parameters of what is feasible with our projections we can disagree. There is no game of fantasy football if everyone agreed, that would stupid and boring. For me, Hockenson is fourth here but if you wanted to take him at three then you go right ahead - he’s safe and he has the upside of being a top-two target on the team. If you want to take the next guy in the article instead, that's fine too. I like them all, that's why they are here.

At the end of the day though, the question is this - are we scared of Jordan Addison? Last year only one team had three players get 100+ targets per PFF and it happened to be the Minnesota Vikings. But the reality is that, once Hockenson showed up, Adam Thielen was no longer on a 100+ target pace. It’s just not realistic to project three guys on one team to get 100+ so you have to choose. I honestly think Hockenson will be second but just the thought of this first-round pick coming in and potentially blowing up has me a little worried. So I’m personally not taking Hock in the fourth round at his ADP of 42 but I will consider him if he slides to the fifth or later. If you don’t believe in Addison, go out and get Hock - he should be fairly safe. If you love Addison, you should probably fade Hock completely. Those are the rules. 

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

The Good

The great thing about Kyle Pitts is that we don’t need to make any sort of argument for the athleticism. That speaks for itself. Here’s a look at his workout metrics from our friends over at Player Profiler.

Plus, he's actually already produced at an elite level in the NFL - not just for his age but for anyone. He had a 1,000-yard season at 21 years old. Travis Kelce didn’t crack 1,000 yards until he was 27. Zach Ertz has one single career 1,000-yard season when he was 28 years old. In fact, besides Pitts, there are only six other active tight ends with a 1,000-yard season: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, and, technically since he signed with the Saints, Jimmy Graham.

The bet here is incredibly simple and you’ve probably heard it before but I’ll lay it out to be safe. This is a player built like a WR who lines up at WR for a huge chunk of his snaps (65.5% over the first two years). He runs real, deep routes (he led the league in deep targets with 13 despite missing time, his 13.1-yard average depth of target was second among TEs last year, and his air yard share of 32.9% was first among TEs per Player Profiler). His target share of 27.3% was also second among tight ends. The reality is that the Falcons threw the ball the second least of any team last year which is decieving because the Bears threw the ball at a leather helmet era level pace. The truth is both the Bears and Falcons threw the fewest passes per game since the Jets in 2009 which is well over a decade. They didn’t add much for pass catchers so the hope is that Pitts keeps that target share and there is more volume in general this year.

The Bad

Well, as simple as the bet is, “The Bad” is also pretty obvious. This isn’t a situation like the Broncos where they went and got a new coach. Or a situation like the Saints or Jets where they went and got a new QB. It’s still Arthur Smith and it’s still Desmond Ridder (though, in Ridder's defense, he didn't get a chance to play with Pitts because Pitts got hurt). If you don’t like Ridder, maybe you could hang your hat on new backup Taylor Heinicke taking over at some point? No, that doesn’t sound reassuring to you either?

The truth is, it’s a lot easier to look at this offseason and predict more of the same than it is to predict more passing. They already had Tyler Allgeier and doubled down with Bijan Robinson. They brought back a lot of blocking in Kaleb McGary, Chris Lindstrom, and Keith Smith. They even traded for Jonnu Smith. Arthur Smith seems hellbent on running an archaic offense that doesn’t throw. And he just might get his wish. 

The Advice

Call me a fool, but I’m still willing to take that risk. The upside is simply too tantalizing. This guy is LOCKED IN as a top-two target on the team. That’s incredibly rare for the tight-end position. And I’ve seen him have a 1,000-yard season, all while this team was still in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts. Last year with Marcus Mariota was an unmitigated train wreck yet the Falcons were still quietly middle of the pack in points per game. And Mariota was the one throwing the ball 23 times a game - Ridder was at least attempting 28.5 per game. There is a world where Desmond Ridder is actually pretty decent and the addition of Bijan Robinson actually opens things up in this offense - and improves it across the board. I’d much rather bet on that kind of upside than bet on guys I know are the third or fourth target. As we laid out here, there are plenty of players who are “middle of the pack” and the difference from TE7 to TE15 last year was what? 13 points in PPR? Give me the wild card and, if he busts, I’ll figure the rest out later. Serviceable tight ends are all over the wire.

Based on our current composite ADP, Kyle Pitts comes off the board at TE5 around pick 64. Which is after George Kittle (53.6) and right before Dallas Goedert (66). The truth is that we really like Waller so Pitts is a guy I end up taking at ADP if someone else reaches on Waller. If two of my leaguemates read this and want to reach on Waller and Pitts then fine, we will wait and use our favorite late-round tight end strategy - Yin & Yang Tight End. Article coming on that soon enough.

 

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