FFPC Playoff Challenge - Positional Strategy and Rankings Grid

The NFL playoffs start in only a matter of days. That means we need to get our playoff fantasy football lineups locked and loaded by the end of the week. 

Our attention right now is set on the FFPC, which has not one but TWO playoff contests with top prizes of $500K and $100K. Those are the most prestigious contests running, which is why I’ve already written one article on basic strategy for the FFPC Playoff Challenge.  I suggest you look that one over, as it will make it a lot easier to understand the thought process behind this article. Now that the field of 14 teams is set, we are looking at the specific strategy with a little advice on players to use.

At the bottom, you will find a copy of our grid from this week’s show on Alarm Fantasy Football, where we had a far more in-depth discussion on how we planned to approach the contest this year. You can absolutely use players outside the grid, but those are the players we are focused on. And here’s a little bit on each position to sum them up.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Quarterback

Quarterback is a crucial position for this contest. If your quarterback only plays one game, you are pretty much cooked. They don’t necessarily need to make it to the Super Bowl, but you likely need someone playing in the conference championship at least.

This scoring is also 4 points per passing with only -1 for turnovers. That historically has favored mobile quarterbacks that take risks, which is why guys like Josh Allen, Drake Maye, and Jalen Hurts are obviously listed (Allen and Hurts have been the top options for this format before). Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, and Brock Purdy also offer mobility and a chance to make a deep run in this contest. Matthew Stafford needs to be included for us as well because he’s thrown 46 TDs this year and is a top Super Bowl contender.

We are personally fading the Broncos to some degree, but if you are in the Broncos or Seahawks going to the Super Bowl, you can use Nix or even Darnold. With them having the bye week and potentially one less game than other QBs, you need to be confident that they make the big game, though (where points are doubled). The quarterbacks for the other teams either don’t offer enough upside for us or aren’t likely to go far.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Running Back

We often say that “running is the luxury of the winning team”. In that sense, we really want to try to target running backs from teams we expect to win a few games. You can make an exception for someone like Christian McCaffrey, who basically plays wide receiver, but, for the most part, we need rushing touchdowns.

For instance, if you don’t think the Seahawks go far, Zach Charbonnett likely isn’t going to be punching in a lot of those goal-line touchdowns. Same for guys like Rico Dowdle, Josh Jacobs, Woody Marks, D’Andre Swift, etc. - if you don’t think those teams escape wildcard weekend, you likely don’t want those guys.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Wide Receiver

There are a lot more examples out there of wide receivers having big spike weeks in a losing game. For instance, Xavier Worthy last year racked up a pretty good game in garbage time in the Super Bowl. Those double points made him a pretty good pick.

So for us, we want two types of players. We want guys who are the clear focal point that can carry their team for multiple games, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Or we want guys that can go down blazing while their team plays only one or two games. Due to the nature of the contest, at least four of our guys are going to be eliminated this week. Hopefully, two of them are our kicker and defense. If a guy like Christian Watson goes out and has 100+ yards and two TDs in a hard-fought loss to the Bears, that would be a great outcome for one of our two position players who gets eliminated. 
 

FFPC Playoff Challenge Tight End

This is tight end premium, so tight ends can easily outscore wide receivers and running backs - especially on a single game sample size. That makes them viable flex options as well. If a tight end can manage a 10 catch game, that’s the equivalent of a 15 catch game for a wide receiver. In this very contest in 2023, Dalton Schultz played only two games, but he had 12 catches and 3 touches in those games, making him a great pick in this format. Much like a wide receiver, a tight end going out in a blaze of glory with a bunch of garbage time targets in a losing effort would be perfect.

You’ll notice below the omission of George Kittle, which seems crazy. And we won’t blame you if you want to use him. But he has a terrible matchup this week with the Eagles. And, if the 49ers win this game, what are the odds that he outscores Christian McCaffrey over a 2+ game sample size? You can only pick one player from each team, so we are not using much Kittle.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Defense

Technically, a defense going to the conference championship or even the Super Bowl wouldn’t sink you. There has been one time over the last decade where a team that won the FFPC playoff challenge had a defense in the Super Bowl. But the odds are not good of that happening. Ideally, you pick a defense that either loses this week or wins one game, then loses. Hopefully, they score a defensive touchdown along the way and give you some points.

That means defense is what we call a “soft fade” here. We’re not picking teams that have great odds of going to the conference championship. The exception would be the teams with bye weeks, as they could end up only playing one or two games and not making the Super Bowl. A popular move will be to pick either the Texans or Steelers defense as part of fading those teams. 

FFPC Playoff Challenge Kicker

Kicker is a soft fade as well, but even closer to a full fade than defense. There’s not a huge sample size of teams doing well in this contest, with their kicker making a deep run. So we’re looking for guys that could play high scoring, close games, but lose. Bonus points if they play in good weather or a dome. But we don’t want to be using guys like Harrison Mevis here because we expect the Rams to win, and they have a bunch of great players.

Fantasy Alarm’s FFPC Playoff Challenge Picks

As we mentioned, this grid was discussed on Alarm Fantasy Football with Howard Bender, Jon Impemba, and me. Here’s the link to that if you’d like to check it out in detail. These obviously aren’t the only viable options, but these are the ones we are in consensus on and most strongly consider using in the contest.

If you are not signed up yet for the FFPC Playoff Challenge, use this link here and promo code ALARM to get set up. With that promo code, they will give you $25 in bonus funds when you deposit $35 or more (the lower contest is $35, so I’d suggest putting in at least $45 so you can get two entries). Even if you don’t plan to fill your lineup out today, make sure you reserve your spot early as these contests WILL fill up quickly! And good luck out there!