It’s fantasy football draft season, and it’s starting to get a little intense out there. The NFL preseason games are in full swing, and we’re seeing players rise up and down draft boards every day in both real drafts and fantasy football mock drafts. But is all the movement warranted? Does everything we witness mean we have to adjust our fantasy football player rankings or my draft grid in the fantasy football cheat sheet? That’s the key to watching the fantasy football ADP – blocking out the noise and having a true understanding of what you are seeing.

For example, Caleb Williams looked great during this past weekend’s preseason game. Not only did he jell with his tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland, but he fired a 36-yard touchdown on a catch-and-run with wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus. We’ve discussed in our Fantasy Football Draft Guide about how bullish we are on the coaching movement as Ben Johnson should have this team firing on all cylinders by the start of Week 1, but are we moving guys up draft boards? Are we taking into account that the Buffalo Bills sat all of their defensive starters? So, while yes, it’s encouraging to see Williams and the offense improving, no one on this team moves up my boards at this time. If you push them up, then you’re hurting the overall return value because you’re paying too much.

On another note, you also need to take into account the date range for your ADP. Are you looking at ADP that dates all the way back to before the NFL Draft? If you are, you may be missing out on some rising values – players who could be going a little earlier than they were two months ago. Take Jacory Croskey-Merritt from the Washington Commanders. Originally, I was hesitant to buy into the hype, but with all the recent talk of them shopping Brian Robinson around, maybe waiting until the last round of your draft to take the rookie running back isn’t the right move. Maybe you do have to bump him up a round or two. If you are looking for ADP data with adjustable date ranges, check out our friends at the NFFC.

In the meantime, allow me to share with you some of my other favorite ADP risers and fallers and discuss whether the movement is genuinely warranted and how you should react to the data.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football ADP Risers

Christian McCaffrey, RB San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 9.76; +3.69)

It’s pretty obvious why we see McCaffrey climb the ADP chart, even if it’s just a few spots. He is the focal point of an offense that no longer has Deebo Samuel and will be without Brandon Aiyuk. As they should, the team is handling him with kid gloves this offseason and is hoping to walk into Week 1 with their primary weapon rested and ready to go. If you are someone who doesn’t like risk, then just skip over him in your draft, but if you are someone who drafts injury-agnostic and understands what his role is on the 49ers, you can grab him early and then make some provisional picks later to protect yourself. After all, McCaffrey and Kyle Shanahan’s offense is exactly why we handcuff.

Chuba Hubbard, RB Carolina Panthers (ADP: 46.85; +6.00)

Hubbard is a must-have for me this season and it all stems from what I wrote about Panthers head coach Dave Canales in our Draft Guide, as well as what I more recently wrote in The New York Post. It’s all about the volume and Canales is giving it all to Hubbard, once again. He did it for Rachaad White back in Tampa and he did it for Hubbard last year in Carolina. No reason to believe he won’t be handing him the rock early and often once again. Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking Rico Dowdle is going to steal touches. If Dowdle was any good, why did the Cowboys toss him aside in favor of a running back room that looks as atrocious as it does right now? 

 

 

 

Matthew Golden, WR Green Bay Packers (ADP: 98.56; +42.15)

It’s not often you see a healthy rookie sit out a preseason game, but the Packers opted to hold Golden on the sidelines this past weekend, an indicator of his potential role with the team. Maybe it was precautionary as they deal with the foot injury to Jayden Reed, but we know Golden was drafted to stretch the field, and the team believes he is more than capable of handling the role. Much more reliable than Christian Watson, too. No need to push him up boards any further and ruin the value, but definitely something to watch. A player like this can be a dangerous reach if you take him too early.

Drake Maye, QB New England Patriots (ADP: 121.32; +24.42)

He’s a very trendy pick these days, as everyone knows that a late-round quarterback with rushing upside could be the key to unlocking your championship run. Maye has looked good in Josh McDaniels’ offense this season, and they’ve given him the weapons he needs to succeed. I’m not ready to sign off on him as your QB1, but if you’re drafting right now, consider him as a key component to using our Yin Yang Draft Strategy.

Marvin Mims, WR Denver Broncos (ADP: 142.75; +18.61)

He’s been on the rise over the last few weeks, but I’m still not a full believer here. Mims is an undersized, speedy wideout who will be able to stretch the field for the Broncos offense, but he is still likely to sit behind Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, and maybe even the running back room on the targets totem pole. But there is certainly an explosive element to his game, and if you are doing some large-field best ball tournaments like we are currently running on Drafters, Mims can be an asset. And if his role does increase, you’re still getting him at a significantly low price.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football ADP Fallers

Alvin Kamara, RB New Orleans Saints (ADP: 42.46; -20.33)

No one tell Andrew Cooper I included Kamara here because he’ll get all butthurt. He and I are on different sides of the Kamara argument. He’s very much in on the player this year. I have my reservations. As I cite in our Draft Guide, Kellen Moore’s offense does not throw to the running backs like Joe Lombardi’s. He killed the PPR value of Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler, and while he used Saquon Barkley heavily in the rushing attack, the 53 targets he saw last season were a career-low, outside of the season he only appeared in two games. If Kamara can become more of a power-runner, then maybe Coop is right, but if you’re drafting him for his pass-catching, it could be an issue. Maybe that, plus his age and wear-and-tear, is why he is falling in drafts.

Isiah Pacheco, RB Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 70.27; -5.87)

Perhaps the rest of the fantasy football world is starting to realize that Pacheco isn’t the prototypical Andy Reid running back. He’s a great north-south runner and has found success in an outside-zone blocking scheme, but he just isn’t the pass-catcher Reid likes to use. We saw this back in 2019 when Damien Williams made the team and cut into LeSean McCoy’s workload. The Chiefs have Kareem Hunt; they signed Elijah Mitchell, and while the buzz has cooled off as of late, Brashard Smith is also here. We still like Pacheco, but maybe as your third or fourth running back, not your top two.

 

 

 

Chris Godwin, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 95.75; -2.78)

The drop in ADP has not been steep, but Godwin’s supporters are losing steam with every word spoken by head coach Todd Bowles and GM Jason Licht. They keep saying he is “right on schedule” and “exactly where he needs to be,” but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to whether or not he will be available for Week 1. Rookie Emeka Egbuka continues to shine during Bucs camp, so we may see the team take it slow with Godwin and start the season with him on the PUP list. I’m still drafting him on teams. I start with a heavy-WR approach, but I’m not considering Godwin as one of my top assets just yet.

Keon Coleman, WR Buffalo Bills (ADP: 121.74; -6.29)

This drop makes no sense to me, and I am 100 percent buying the dip. He is the only field-stretcher the Bills have and is also the only guy on the field you want going up on contested catches. Maybe people are shying away because he doesn’t exactly fit Joe Brady’s scheme that well, but I just don’t see Josh Allen ignoring him or the downfield throws. This is one of the rare times I go against what the offense is doing, but I feel like it is warranted in this case. Allen loves the hero ball, and Brady may not be able to take it away from him entirely. 

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR New York Giants (ADP: 181.17 -52.15)

There are going to be a lot of vertical routes in this offense with Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton stretching the field. We all know Russell Wilson loves to throw the moon-ball, and we should expect a lot of downfield action this year. That’s not Robinson’s game. He’s a low-aDOT, move-the-chains guy who does most of his work over the middle. The middle – where Wilson can’t see over the offensive or defensive line. Robinson will get some work, but you can expect a major drop in targets from what he saw last year, and everyone is finally catching on.