It's Friday, April 17th, and we have a 2-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Happy final NBA Play-in tournament day!

The playoff field will officially be set after tonight's eight-seed games between the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference and Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference. Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, LaMelo Ball, and Paolo Banchero will try leading their teams to victory and into the postseason.

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, April 17th

Be sure to like and subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel!

 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update Section

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

  •  

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/17

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

 

 

NBA DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic

Total: 218.5

Spread: CHA -3.5

Hornets NBA DFS Breakdown

The Hornets are coming off a big overtime win against the Miami Heat and now draw the Orlando Magic in the eight-seed game. LaMelo Ball played 35 regulation minutes and 40 total last time out and with elimination on the line, he's arguably the top play of the day. Ball has a 31.8% USG and 1.36 FP/min this year. Coby White's price stands out because of his ceiling offensively. He played 26 minutes in their play-in but he played over Kon Knueppel in overtime and that is a 50/50 here. He fits best in GPPs.

Kon Knueppel had a tough play-in game against the Heat but that doesn't mean today's going to go poorly as well. He played 34 minutes despite not making any shots or playing overtime. He was a 22% USG and .97 FP/min player that can make a bunch of shots and break a slate, especially now that he's under 6K on DK. Brandon Miller's price is incredibly cheap and his scoring ceiling is elite. He's a 28.4% USG, 1.1 FP/min player this year.

We saw Miles Bridges go crazy in the first play-in game and he played 38 regulation minutes. His price stands out and so does his upside. Bridges was a 22.8% USG and .99 FP/min player this year. We should see Grant Williams play 17-20 minutes and possibly more if Moussa Diabate ends up not playing.

That being said, if Diabate does play, he's going to play a lot and is as good a rebounder as anyone around the league. He had 14 boards last time out and was one basket away from a double-double bonus too. We're only looking at Ryan Kalkbrenner if Moussa Diabate sits but even if that happens, I'd expect Grant Williams to play far more than Kalkbrenner.

Tier 1: LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Moussa Diabate

Tier 2: Coby White, Grant Williams (if Moussa Diabate sits), Kon Knueppel, Ryan Kalkbrenner (if Moussa Diabate sits)

Magic NBA DFS Breakdown

The Magic ran a nine-man rotation last play-in game and I could see that sticking here or possibly going down to eight. We know Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black will play in the back-court and Suggs has 40 minute upside. The Magic also played Black low-20s, which was the highest of all their bench players. Suggs has a solid ceiling when he makes shots and I can get behind a 4K Anthony Black too.

We know Desmond Bane has a really high ceiling and flashed that last game, playing 40 minutes and scoring 34 actual points. Can he repeat that? It's possible, but we'll see where the ownership comes in at before I fully buy-in here. People could react to his first game and over roster him. Franz Wagner is very hard to roster if he's going to remain limited but we'll see what his minutes look like.

It's hard to imagine Paolo Banchero going 7-for-22 again, but he has had those numbers in two straight contests. He's also averaged 37 minutes during that span and has 40 minute upside here. Wendell Carter is going to play into the 30s in terms of minutes and is solid while Goga Bitadze will continue to back him up and is nothing more than a punt.

Tier 1: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs (GPP), Desmond Bane

Tier 2: Wendell Carter

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns

Total: 220

Spread: PHX -3.5

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

Do the Warriors have their ish back? Now that Stephen Curry is healthy can they go on a play-in tournament run? Curry went nuclear in the second half the other day and is very live to ALWAYS do that. I don't love Brandin Podziemski at a $6,000 price tag on DK, but he played 40 minutes in their first play-in game.

The Warriors brought De'Anthony Melton and Gary Payton off the bench last game and both played low-20s minutes. Without Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield, and Moses Moody this year, Payton is actually a 1.18 FP/min. That's pretty elite at 3.6K. Melton's over 1 FP/min too. Both are playable.

The Warriors went with Gui Santos in their starting lineup last time out and they'll likely run it back here, but if he doesn't play well both Melton and Payton are waiting in the wings because the Suns run a LOT of guard lineups out there. He's definitely playable at $5,000.

The Warriors front court is interesting because Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis are the likely starters as long as Porzingis plays – as he's listed as questionable. I love Porzingis' fantasy ceiling. He's a 1.28 FP/min player with the Warriors. Green is solid and is always a better fantasy asset when he plays alongside Stephen Curry. Al Horford is also OK at his price and his minutes were up above 20 for the first time since he lost a month of time because of his calf injury.

Tier 1: Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis, Draymond Green, Gary Payton (GPP)

Tier 2: Gui Santos, De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski

Suns NBA DFS Breakdown

The Suns continue to start Jordan Goodwin over Collin Gillespie and it's probably going to be the same lineup here. Will Grayson Allen and Mark Williams play? That's the question. Goodwin's an easy click if he's starting again at his price point. Gillespie is nearly impossible to play at his.

Devin Booker and Jalen Green are fantastic options at their respective price points. Green at 7.2K stands out a bit more than Booker, but we know Booker as high a scoring ceiling as anyone on the slate. If Grayson Allen plays, I'd probably be a fader at 5.2K unless we found out there are going to be no restrictions.

We know Dillon Brooks is going to be chasing Stephen Curry around where he goes and the reason that's important is can Brooks stay out of foul trouble? He fouled out in 37 minutes in their first play-in game and will endlessly play if he's not in foul trouble. Royce O'Neale is a pretty boring play to be honest, but he played mid-20s minutes.

Will Mark Williams play is a big question, as we mentioned earlier. If he doesn't, Oso Ighodaro will start and handle most of the center minutes. I think the Suns are live to go small at times, so it's not a guarantee they use their centers for straight 48 minutes. They didn't last game with Williams available.

Tier 1: Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Jordan Goodwin (if starting)

Tier 2: Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams (if he plays), Oso Ighodaro (if Williams sits)