NBA DFS Position Coach: November 10, 2016

I have discovered I like small slates more than I used to. I’m not sure why. I don’t know if it is because you have to work harder to find value, or because you have to take risks on players you normally wouldn’t. This slate is definitely challenging, but I like it. There are some good games, but none I absolutely have to get a share of. I won’t have four players from the same team in any lineup, though I wouldn’t argue if you wanted to start four Heat players. In such a short slate I think it is important to try to identify the cheap players you like and then fill in more expensive players around them. There are reasonable options at just about every price and just about every position, but point guard is probably the best place to try to save some money.

Point Guard

I love Miami’s matchup, especially for Goran Dragic. Rajon Rondo isn’t exactly a dedicated defender on the best of days, and the Bulls are on the road for the second of a back-to-back.

Tyler Johnson isn't as safe as Dragic, but with four games on the slate, you are going to have to take a chance on at least a couple risky players, and Johnson gets my vote. Johnson is averaging more fantasy points than guys like Rondo, Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams, but he is cheaper than them. I don’t really understand why.

Darren Collison came off the bench to play 28 minutes in his first game of the season Tuesday, and he will likely get his starting job back Thursday. Only four teams have allowed more points per game than the Lakers this season, and Collison would be an excellent, if slightly risky, DFS play if he starts.

Shooting Guard

Gary Harris played 30 minutes for the first time this season Tuesday, scoring 15 points on 5-for-13 shooting. The minutes should stay the same or increase, even if Wilson Chandler returns, and the shooting should improve. Harris probably won’t be the guy to carry your team, but he should provide a modest value and allow you to spend up elsewhere.

Stephen Curry’s ankle injury worries me enough that I’m going to fade him, especially with Golden State on the second of a back-to-back. Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to score 20 points in each of his last two games, but I would be shocked if the streak reaches three. Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than the Pelicans this season

It makes me nervous to recommend Nick Young coming off back-to-back 20-point games, but he is still the cheapest Laker shooting guard, and he probably shouldn’t be, especially if Larry Nance is out. If you can afford to pay up for Jordan Clarkson or Lou Williams I would have no problem with that, but Young is probably the best value of the three.

Small Forward

Danillo Gallinari had season-highs in points, minutes and rebounds Tuesday with Wilson Chandler out, and we could see similar production if Chandler sits Thursday. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than the Warriors.

I will be very interested to see how the Nuggets match up with Kevin Durant, especially if Wilson Chandler is out. Denver has been stingy against opposing small forwards, but I don’t think they can slow down Durant. Stephen Curry will probably be fine after he tweaked his ankle Wednesday, but I think there is a decent chance he defers a bit and Durant leads the team in scoring and fantasy points.

I don’t really trust Justise Winslow, but I would be mildly surprised if he fails to bounce back following his worst statistical game of the season Monday. Winslow has failed to score in double digits just twice this season, and he could really take advantage if he is matched up against anyone other than Jimmy Butler.

Power Forward

Julius Randle hasn’t been very consistent this season, but he has taken advantage of all of his good matchups, and he has another good matchup here against the Kings. Even if Randle doesn’t get his fourth double-double of the season, he could make up for it with a handful of assists.

Jabari Parker has been more consistent than Julius Randle, and his upside is just as high. I probably like Randle slightly better except on DraftKings, where Parker costs $900 less.

If you want to fade Randle and Parker, you probably should pay up for Anthony Davis. Davis had 35 points and 15 rebounds against the Bucks last week and he didn’t even shoot it particularly well.

Center

This feels odd to say considering he scored five points in his last game, but Hassan Whiteside is another Heat player you can trust for DFS. Monday was the first game all season Whiteside failed to record a double-double, and the Bulls have allowed 5.6 blocks per game to opponents this season.

Timofey Mozgov’s fantasy production is tied almost entirely to his minutes. In the four games Mozgov has played more than 20 minutes, he is averaging 22 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. In the other three, he is averaging 11 fantasy points. The Kings have roughly 10 centers on their roster Mozgov can match up with, and there is even a chance Mozgov reaches 25 minutes for the first time this season. Barring any surprise rest days, there are very few super-cheap options worth considering, and Mozgov is the best of the bunch.

If you want a center who doesn’t fall into either of the extremes, Greg Monroe is basically your only option. Monroe is more of a GPP play because his minutes vary wildly from game to game, but he has a much better matchup than guys like Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic.