Take a deep breath everyone, we are finally to the NBA Playoffs. This is the moment when stars become legends, and legends join the greatest of all-time. It is a time of full court action, loud arenas, and simultaneous heartbreak and joy. It is also the time to make smart bets, and that is exactly what Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets intends to do. 




Grayson Allen has been good to this column, and even more specifically good to us in this match. We have seen his odds rise almost to -200 on over 2.5 threes made, and we have bet on it heavily since the All-Star break, it is now time for it again. 

In the Phoenix Suns last two games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, April fifth and fourteenth, Allen covered this proposition. He has three or more three's made in four of his last six games and has had plenty of rest to prepare for this match. He has also played 31 or more minutes in all but two games this month, and in one of those games he sat out for rest.

The Timberwolves have an excellent defense and three great defenders in Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Anthony Edwards. The Suns have three great scorers in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker. Although Jaden McDaniels is one of the top five perimeter defenders in the league, he will be occupied with Booker, Beal, or Durant almost the entire game.

Rudy Gobert will be almost exclusively matched up against Jusuf Nurkic, and defend near the rim. Anthony Edwards will be matched up with whoever is controlling the point, most likely Devin Booker. There could be some zone at times, but Grayson Allen benefits so much from his teammates, and an aggressive defense in this situation. They will over play the big three, and leave Allen with several open three point attempts, which is what this bet wants.

Allen has successfully made seven of eleven three-point attempts in his last two games against Minnesota. He will see several opportunities tonight, is well rested, and will play over thirty minutes again. Put a unit on our guy to deliver.



The 2022-23 MVP has arrived just in time, carrying the Philadelphia 76ers to a victory in the Play-In Tournament. He just finished against one tough defense and is up against another in the New York Knicks.

There is no question that Joel Embiid is one of the best scorers of this decade. He seems to be comfortable with the ball, and can have a high field goal percentage from virtually anywhere inside the arc. He will have several attempts tonight, but he has covered this line in just three of his six games played in April. He is not 100% healthy, and is playing through progression and healing. 

The Knicks are actually the healthiest they have been since the beginning of the season. Isaiah Hartenstein, Mithcell Robinson, OG Anunoby, and Precious Achiuwa will all have assignments in slowing down Joel Embiid. There could be a heavy minute rotation for the Knicks front court, which would keep fresh legs (and lungs) on Embiid. 

Scoring generally goes down in the playoffs, and this was under display in the Play-In Tournament too. Scrambles for loose balls, hand checking, bodying up, and aggressive offensive play have not been penalized. This favors the Knicks as well as this bet. 

New York allowed 108.2 points per game during the season and it would not be surprising if the 76ers scored one-hundred or less tonight. Asking Embiid to score 30% or more of those points does not seem logical. Particularly against a great defensive minded coach in Tom Thibodeau, who will gameplan at stopping Embiid. We are playing the under on the reigning MVP.


Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the unsung hero of this decade. He has won a championship with both teams in this match up. He is known primarily for his defense, but the Denver Nuggets’ starting scoring guard, oddly enough, scores too.

There will be a great energy in Ball Arena tonight as the Lakers have been the Nuggets nemesis for practically the franchises entire existence. Things have tilted the Nuggets way the past two seasons, particularly the last eight games. The great thing as fans and bettors is we get at least four more games this season. This will be a tough series, as was the Western Conference Finals, a series in which Caldwell-Pope excelled.

He made two or more three point attempts in all four games against the Lakers. He attempted twenty-seven in the series, or almost eight per game. The Lakers, as will every opponent the Nuggets play, will double Jamal Murray and press him all the way up the court. This will leave Caldwell-Pope several catch-and-score opportunities. He will also swing a few of those passes to work the Lakers, but he will have several open look three point attempts.

Caldwell-Pope sat out against the Lakers in their most recent match on March second. He has not made two threes in his last four games, but did not exceed over thirty minutes in any of those games. That will change tonight as Head Coach Michael Malone will lean into his starters much like he did last season’s playoff run. 

Trust Caldwell-Pope to make two threes on his home court tonight.



Jamal Murray has not been mentioned in this column lately. His injuries and his boom or bust ability made him a risky wager at times. However the NBA Playoffs have begun and this is when the champion is at his best. ‘Playoff Jamal’ has taken down many foes with excellent scoring, great effort, and never giving up.

His one-two game with Nikola Jokic is the best in the league, and Murray said so in an interview. An aspect of Murray’s game that is overlooked is his rebounding. He averages four rebounds per game but is capable of getting ten any given night. He averaged 5.7 rebounds per game in last year’s playoffs, and with a week to rest and recover should be attacking the rim this series. 

He had five or more rebounds in three of the four games against the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, and every indication is he will have an uptick in rebounds throughout this playoff. There are excellent All-NBA team rebounders in this match, but Jamal’s IQ, awareness, and playing time should ensure the plus odds prop is successful. Look for this bet to cash early in the fourth quarter when Jamal is playing with the second unit.


The Phoenix Suns are playing the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Target Center with a tipoff of 3:30 PM ET. This should be a tightly contested contest, with the number one defense playing one of the best scoring offenses in the league. The 214.5 points is a bit disrespectful to the playoffs and the best defense in the Association. The under is recommended for this game.

Do not get it twisted though, Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant could each have a 35-point game and it would be received as normal. But the Timberwolves have lost each of their last two games and have an opportunity to make a statement win at home. Several people in the NBA media have chosen the Suns to win this game, and added that the Timberwolves are perennial playoff chokers. 

None of that matters, they said the same thing about the Nuggets last year, and both Minnesota and Denver have been one of the top four teams throughout the season. The Play-In Tournament displayed that fouls would not be given so freely. Tonight should be no different, and the Timberwolves are more physical at every position, with a slight edge to Rudy Gobert over Jusuf Nurkic. Also Phoenix goes to the free throw line more than most teams, and could see a dip in attempts. 

There is very little chance this game is a blowout and that also helps the under unless overtime is forced– an unlikely scenario. An under on the total in a game with the number one defense is a smart bet. A unit wager is advised for this afternoon gem.