Yesterday was an amazing day of basketball! That is why you watch the NBA Playoffs. The Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks game came down to the final seconds, and a ferocious effort by the Knicks allowed them to steal the game away from the 76ers. 

 

 

 

The game at Ball Arena between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets was not decided until AFTER the game's last second. In a playoff instant classic, Jamal Murray sank a step back jumper over an outstretched Anthony Davis with time expiring. They crashed into the Nuggets’ bench, the crowd erupted, the announcers were losing it, and the largest playoff comeback (20 points) in Denver Nuggets’ history was completed.

As for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, it was another profitable day. 1.44 Units were gained as Meat Loaf was back on the menu. A sweep would have been preferred but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had trouble from behind the arc, as did most Nuggets. 

Jarett Allen dominated the paint, and cleared over 11.5 rebounds in the third quarter. Josh Hart’s under prop was a bit of a panic as he PLAYED FORTY-EIGHT MINUTES… that is the entire game in case someone was not aware. He was the player of the game, but his assists never exceeded three and it was a safe Bet of the Night. 

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NBA Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, 4/23

As usual, today’s NBA predictions will start off with the Bet of the Night. It happens to be on a player we have been betting on often: Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Suns vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Rudy Gobert Rebounding Ladder - 13+ (-125) 1U, 15+ (+175) 1U, 17+ (+375) 0.5U (2.5 Units Total on Bet365)

We have been riding Rudy Gobert in our NBA best bets lately, and we are continuing to bet on the rebounding star. Gobert was the second leading rebounder this season, and that was not by accident. Every one of his 982 rebounds he earned, and he has been earning double-digits in almost every game. Gobert has 15 or more rebounds in five of his last six games, including 16 in Game 1 vs. the Phoenix Suns.

In addition to that, Rudy Gobert has been receiving a great deal of shade from the media and players. He is the leader in an alleged players poll as the most overrated player in the NBA, yet will be earning his fourth Defensive Player of the Year title. The second most rebounds in the Association, the anchor of the best defensive team in the league, yet overrated… don’t buy that bologna, friends. It appears that even the sportsbooks seem to believe this nonsense. 

We are not backing off due to the fact his only two games below 10 rebounds this month were against the Suns. They were also two of his lowest minutes played in his last 10 games. The Suns’ Jusuf Nurkic is a large, powerful center, but so is Gobert. 

Gobert also has the advantage of playing on a team with excellent perimeter defenders in Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards. They will force low percentage field goal attempts, and Rudy will be there to snatch them up. The ladder is the Bet of the Night, because throughout the playoffs, a player has controlled the game with their rebounding, and each so far exceeded their rebounding line. 

Last night, Josh Hart, Jarrett Allen, and Nikola Jokic exceeded their rebounding line by at least four. Jamal Murray, Jonas Valanciunas, and Gobert have exceeded their rebounding lines as well. Tonight should be no different, and Gobert should have several defensive rebounds against a team that looks to score often. 

Gobert’s rebounding line is set at 12.5, and if you want to lay a unit or double-unit on that, no problem. The ladder is built to get plus odd props on a guy who has been a great late-season rebounder. 

 

 

 

NBA Props & Best Bets, 4/23

Shifting away from our NBA picks Bet of the Night, despite the terrible game from the Mavericks last time out, Luka Doncic still had a good statistical game. Plus, today, the Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks matchup has the highest projected total at 223.5 points, which is a market we look to attack. 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction: Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110 on DraftKings)

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks were embarrassed by the Los Angeles Clippers in game one. The Mavericks scored thirty first half points – not first quarter, but FIRST HALF points. The Clippers came in prepared and ready to play, and the Dallas Mavericks did not. 

Doncic scored 33 points, had six assists, made four threes, and, most importantly, had 13 rebounds. All with 42 minutes of floor time. Tonight should be a tightly contested game, with a projected spread of two points in favor of the Mavericks. Dallas will need Doncic to have a commanding presence in order to win. 

He is bigger than every starting Clipper besides Ivica Zubac, and he should use his size as an advantage. He can pick his way to the rim and get quick, second chance opportunities. He also can box out and position himself well for defensive rebounds. Doncic has recorded 12 or more rebounds in five of his last seven games played, and should be due for another double-double night. 

He has recorded low rebounding numbers against the Clippers this season; three, six, and nine. Those were games with Kawhi Leonard in the matchup, and Kawhi is expected back tonight. How effective and how many minutes he will play is yet to be seen. What is known is Doncic will play over 35 minutes, and more than likely over 40. The second of today’s NBA predictions look for the leader of the Mavericks to get 10+ rebounds tonight in a pressure game.

 

 

 

Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction: Under 223 Total Points (-110 on BettorEdge)

There has been excellent defensive play throughout the playoffs, and the referees have swallowed their whistle. That is to say they are not calling fouls. It has resulted in several successful under bets on the totals and player points. 

In Game 1, the Pacers and Bucks scored a collective 203 points, safely going under the point total. In the 11 games that have played thus far, 13 teams have scored 101 points or less. Only one has scored more than 114 points: the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The math for the playoffs is not adding up to this high total projected, and it appears the sportsbooks are relying on data from the regular season. If one person on either team has a bad scoring night, this bet is essentially a cash. The combination of championship coaches matching wits, key players being injured, and the referees allowing the defense to play physically is a list of reasons the under should be successful. 

Pascal Siakam and Damian Lillard had great games, but each of them requires the ball in a system of play that is set up with half-court offense. Half court offenses require time to set up, which even further helps this bet, as both are projected as the leading point scorers for their team. 

This was almost a double-unit smash, but discipline is required for goals to be achieved when making NBA picks. Put a unit on it as there are five total bets being wagered today.

 

 

 

Thanks for checking out my NBA predictions for today! Make sure to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting requirements.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise