The last time we saw the Cup Series in action, Chase Elliott went to victory lane at Martinsville Speedway following a great strategy call from crew chief, Alan Gustafson. It marked the first win of the season for Hendrick Motorsports following the introduction of the new Chevrolet body. And now we head to a track where one of their drivers has had no trouble dominating the field in two of the last three races at Bristol.

After a week off for Easter, the NASCAR Cup Series is back in action at Bristol Motor Speedway. It’s another short track on the schedule with plenty of laps. So while the speeds and racing for this short track will differ from what we saw two weeks ago, the DFS strategy largely remains the same.

We have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. And after a year away, we’re bringing back the NASCAR DFS Show to offer up some analysis on every race in under 30 minutes each week. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Food City 500!

 

 

 

Bristol Motor Speedway

Bristol Motor Speedway is considered The Last Great Colosseum. It measures in at a half-mile in length and the laps will tick off much faster than what we saw at Martinsville due to the banking and higher speeds at this track. We will see them complete three-to-four laps per minute and lap traffic comes into play very fast. This is one of the rare tracks run on a concrete surface and its closest comparison is Dover International Speedway which is another concrete track but it measures in at a full mile. 

As you can see from the trends table above, we will likely see one clear primary dominator logging over 100 laps led while it’s possible we see an additional driver lead 50+ laps. Now there are some instances in recent memory where Kyle Larson led 400+ laps as a solo dominator. But with 500 laps on the table we have probably 325 dominator points to work with depending on how many laps are run under caution.

Similar to Martinsville we want to put our lineups in position to rack up as many dominator points as possible. So in most lineups we’ll want two-to-three elite drivers to lead laps. In some lineups I’ll take a stab on a solo dominator but from there it becomes difficult trying to nail five other drivers that can move up and score well because over the last five races we’re only seeing 9.4 drivers per race finish on the lead lap.

Fortunately, tire strategy comes into play. Tire wear does matter at Bristol. Despite the heavy traffic on this short track, if you have fresher tires you can pass and collect fastest laps. About 13.4 drivers per race register double-digit fastest laps so even if you aren’t leading laps, you can still have fast drivers pad their stats.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The tables above are certainly “low” on the polesitter but don’t view this simply as a notion that the polesitter sucks. It just so happens that two of the last five winners started P2. And two of the last five winners have started P3. Let’s take those two facts and simply say, qualifying towards the front is helpful. And truthfully, we see the outside lane tend to get the better jump on restarts.

Aside from just being able to see that dominator points come more from drivers starting well, I’m not really looking into these tables too much. With all the dominator points that are available to good qualifiers, PD doesn’t play as much of a role but you’re still hoping to get a few drivers that can move up and score well since we did see in the previous table that 10.8 driver per race tend to gain 6+ spots of PD. And yet, drivers starting deep in the field clearly aren’t scoring as well as the drivers starting with better track position. So you don’t need to be too reliant on drivers starting deep in the field.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Food City 500

There are not a lot of significant details to take away from the practice-to-qualifying table. Even when you consider the single-lap column, one-tenth of a second separated the fastest lap (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) and the 18th-fastest lap (Todd Gilliland). 

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from practice was how loose the Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing cars were. The broadcast made note of it and the drivers even addressed it. Denny Hamlin ran five laps early in the second practice group and immediately came in to make adjustments. Now the Toyota’s did manage to make some adjustments and lay down good qualifying efforts. But some of the qualifying results are rather surprising which makes lineup building pretty fun if you’re looking to max enter some contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

NASCAR Food City 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson (Starting P8) – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

It hasn’t been a great start to the season for Larson, but you could make that argument for most of the Chevy camp. With that said, we should expect Hendrick Motorsports to find their groove as the season progresses and it helps that Elliott got the win at Martinsville two weeks ago.

Now we come to another short track with a boatload of laps. So why wouldn’t we consider a driver who has led 400+ laps in two of the last three Bristol races? Prior to last fall’s race in the playoffs, Larson had rattled off six straight finishes of fifth or better at Bristol and that includes three wins and 1,121 total laps led. So despite the sluggish start to the season, and the fact he hasn’t won a race in about 11 months, we can’t quite count the guy out.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Hamlin’s track history is certainly great but maybe just a touch less elite than Larson’s. Both had poor results in last Fall’s race in the playoffs, but Hamlin previously won here in 2023 and 2024. And let’s not forget just how dominant the Toyota camp has been to start the 2026 season. They’ve laid claim to five of the first seven wins, and Hamlin has one of those wins.

Hamlin’s usually a reliable qualifier, especially at Bristol so that puts him in position to lead laps. And we touched on how track position matters and you cannot afford any errors at this track. That’s why we lean into the vets and guys who have a ton of experience here. You need to qualify well, you need a great pit stall, you need a reliable pit crew, and you cannot make mistakes. Hamlin’s nearing the end of his career but with 38 races at Bristol on his resume, he’s such a natural fit at any short track.

Ryan Blaney (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

The price tag isn’t too prohibitive this week as we have 500 laps to work with. And it helps that he won the pole and should be able to lead plenty of laps early on. Tyler Reddick starts next to him, but he’s had his share of struggles on shorter tracks.

Over the last four Bristol races, Blaney has the second-best average finish (7.8) behind only Christopher Bell and the driver of the 12-car finished top five in both Bristol races a year ago with 78 total laps led. He’s never won at this track, but he has shown he’s capable of running up front and collecting dominator points. And we can also hang our hat on the fact that HMS and JGR had to make adjustments during practice while posting less-than-stellar practice speed.

My one concern with Blaney is his pit crew. They’re one of the worst in the Cup Series. You have to be perfect on pit road and you cannot afford errors at this track. A slow stop could cost him track position and he’ll have to get back to the front on his own. Winning the pole will afford him a good pit stall but Blaney’s going to need his pit crew to bring their A-game.

William Byron (Starting P34) – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

I’m mostly including Byron in the Playbook because if I left him out there would’ve been questions. He would’ve made the Player Pool if that were the case ,but this is purely targeting the position differential. I don’t have any concerns about Byron losing the lead lap just based on his talent as a driver and the equipment he’s in. It would take a true disaster for Byron not to reach his floor.

With that said, if I’m spending up in this range, I want dominator points. Byron has an easy path to 60+ fantasy points if he works his way to a top 10 finish with some fastest laps along the way. And that’s fine as a good score. But we also have other drivers in this range that can return 80+ points if they get out front for several laps and finish well. So he’s a fine play for cash games but there are drivers with better ceilings for tournaments.

Ty Gibbs (Starting P5) – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $12,000

I mentioned him on the latest NASCAR DFS Show, but Gibbs is just racking up good, consistent finishes. He’s now finished sixth or better in five straight races on a variety of tracks. Even two weeks ago at Martinsville, he finished fourth and didn’t lead a single lap. But he grabbed 22 fastest laps to boost his score an extra 10 points give or take.

Gibbs carries the fifth-best average finish over the last two years at Bristol (9.3) and he’s led 100+ laps on three occasions in the NextGen era at this track. Maybe there’s some legitimacy behind the concrete narrative. We also saw him finish top five at Dover last year which is the best comparison for Bristol. Just given the consistent results and the ability to log fastest laps, I’m viewing Gibbs as a strong GPP recommendation because it feels like his first career win is coming.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $11,000

Briscoe might be a better value on DraftKings but he’s viable on both sites. I just enjoy anytime I can mention a driver that’s priced under $9,000 with potential to lead laps. Briscoe has had a rough start to the year. And on top of that, he isn’t qualifying as well. This year his average starting spot is 18.1 while a year ago it was 9.9 after winning the pole seven times and starting on the front row 13(!) times.

Briscoe still has decent track history at Bristol. Even in his first full-time season with Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025, he started P14 and finished 4th. Then in the playoffs he somehow led 127 laps after starting P31, and he grabbed a top 10 finish in the same race. This isn’t necessarily a track you want to “stack the back” but it’s good to see that he was able to drive through the field in 2025.

He’s a driver more than capable of winning and given the speed we’ve seen from the Toyota camp, it’s only a matter of time before Briscoe turns it around and starts putting up big DFS scores once again. With Briscoe starting P3, he has the track position early on to run up front, and with a good pit stop or strategy call, he can find his way in the front to collect dominator points.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $10,000

Keselowski will draw some ownership because of the starting spot and potential for a top 10. RFK Racing is having a strong start to the season and Brad has great track history here. He hasn’t qualified very well at Bristol over the last two years. However, in two of the last four races he’s started outside the top 15 and finished inside the top three while earning a runner-up result in the playoffs at Bristol in 2025.

He is a previous winner at this track but all three of those wins came when he was with Team Penske. Tire wear is a big part of maintaining track position and few are better at that than Keselowski especially after we saw how dominant he was at Darlington just a few weeks ago. We’ve got PD with this play and a slight touch of win equity.

Carson Hocevar (Starting P10) – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

Hocevar once again enters the NASCAR DFS Playbook purely as a GPP recommendation. I’m not dwelling too much on the practice speeds but he was consistently running well in the longer runs while bigger organizations had issues and were forced to make adjustments.

We know what the ceiling is with Hocevar. He has top five upside and will eventually get some wins. But sometimes the finishes don’t always come when we expect them, like two weeks ago at Martinsville.

Hocevar is an aggressive driver. We say that all the time. But his team also isn’t afraid to get off strategy to gain some track position. That can either work or be a disaster which is why we limit exposure only to tournaments. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece (Starting P17) – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

We tend to upgrade Preece more on the short, flat tracks. Bristol is short, but it sure isn’t flat. And yet, Preece has some solid track history here. The results last year in his first year with RFK Racing are pretty pedestrian, but he had three top 15 results here with Stewart-Haas Racing prior to the team closing their doors.

But Preece is having a ton of success early in the year. For a value play in the $7K range on both sites, we’re seeing consistent results. Sure he finished poorly at Daytona but that’s the nature of the beast there. He was 12th at Martinsville, 13th at Darlington, 11th at Vegas, and 13th at Phoenix. Those are good, solid results. Do we want more fantasy points out of him? Of course we do and this is a track where he can get another top 15 finish and if he collects 15-20 fastest laps then he can land in the optimal lineup. This has been a good track for RFK Racing and all three of those drivers are solid plays on this slate.

Josh Berry (Starting P25) – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,800

It is tempting to go with Alex Bowman, but he’s making his return following a lengthy absence due to some struggles with vertigo and the lingering concussion symptoms from last season. Bristol is a track where he has good track position, but he didn’t seem too pleased with his car during practice.

I prefer taking the safer route with Berry. For starters, Berry and Bowman are similar plays in terms of pricing and starting spot. Berry also has a good short track background and has finished 12th in each of the last two Bristol Spring races.

Michael McDowell (Starting P19) – DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $4,500

I don’t know what FanDuel is doing with this price tag but it’s a joke. McDowell always had good runs at Bristol in his previous time with Front Row Motorsports with a few top 12 finishes. But Spire Motorsports seems dialed in for this race after McDowell and Hocevar posted really strong laps in practice.

Because of that, McDowell is one of the better plays based on the practice-to-qualifying table above. This is a track that caters to veteran experience and McDowell certainly is a veteran of the sport and has some top 10 results on the season. A clean top 12 result likely returns 40+ fantasy points if he gets a few fastest laps along the way.

Zane Smith (Starting P15) – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $6,200

This is more of a gut call but one with upside. Zane has been a value driver that tends to fly under the radar because he does qualify rather well. But Front Row Motorsports tends to perform very well at this track. Even in the playoffs last year we saw Zane start P24, finish top 10 in the first two stages, and then he rallied to finish third at the end of the race. Moreover, he’s had some good results here in the Truck Series as well despite never going to victory lane.

Noah Gragson finished 23rd in both races at Bristol last year. Todd Gilliland hasn’t had a ton of success, but he’s grabbed a couple top 20 finishes at Bristol in his Cup Series career. But the intriguing numbers lie with Michael McDowell’s numbers when he used to drive the 34-car for FRM. From 2022-2024 he finished 11th or better in all four races. Now maybe that’s more of an argument for McDowell, who certainly has more experience and his departure from FRM left the organization on the younger end of the spectrum. 

But overall Zane is a driver with talent. He was once considered a long-term prospect for a future spot with Trackhouse Racing but they chose to go with Connor Zilisch. Zane won’t win, but he can certainly make a ton of noise and run a disciplined race to finish well.

Now if you don’t like Zane’s starting spot, then you can consider his teammate, Todd Gilliland, who starts much further back (P30). Gilly is at risk of losing the lead lap but even if that’s the case, there’s still a shot at a top 20 finish so he has the safer floor. But I still think Zane has an incredible ceiling if he runs a clean race and holds his track position.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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