Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Friday, July 11th! 

We have a 15-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and a 14-game main slate FanDuel, both starting at 7:05 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Friday, 7/11

Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles

Small chance of rain that probably does not impact play. 

Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

Rain in the area but not necessarily over the ballpark. 

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (Game 2)

An in-game delay is possible as rain moves in after first pitch. 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins

An in-game delay is possible as rain moves in after first pitch. 

New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals

A late start might be necessary with rain expected right around first pitch. A postponement is possible if rain lingers. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers 

We have a massive slate that is absolutely loaded with upside pitching, and Tarik Skubal is the runaway favorite for the top option. He's the best pitcher on the planet and worth every penny of his slate-leading price tag as long as the weather cooperates. The lefty owns an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and 3.2% walk rate this season, and he has dominated his last two starts with a total of 23 strikeouts in 14 shutout innings.  

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Skenes is one of the few pitchers in baseball with skills that rival those of Tarik Skubal, but Skenes does not have near the leash or the supporting offense that Skubal does. The Pirates have understandably been very cautions with their prized right-hander, and he was lifted after just 78 pitches in his last start despite dominating with 10 strikeouts in five shutout innings. The discount helps narrow the gap, but the fact we are not guaranteed anything beyond five innings leaves Skubal as the preferred option.  

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan has run off six straight quality starts and also possesses elite skills, with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. His plus matchup puts him at the top of the list in the loaded tier just below Skenes and Skubal. Ryan has extreme platoon splits as he has struck out an elite 34.6% of right-handed batters compared to just 21.5% of left-handed batters. The Pirates projected lineup contains just three batters that will hit from the left side against Ryan. Logan Webb and Carlos Rodon are fantastic pitchers in their own right, but they get matchups against top-five offenses in the Dodgers and Cubs. Ranger Suarez and Kodai Senga get matchups with low-strikeout opponents. A dominant outing from any of those four would not be the least bit surprising, but Ryan is in clearly the best spot. 

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians (DK Only) 

The second game of the double-header between the White Sox and Guardians is only available on the DK slate, but Gavin Williams is very much in play there. The righty has struggled with control this season (13.1% walk rate), but he also has plenty of strikeout upside and a great matchup against the White Sox. Williams is also coming off one of his best starts of the season where he shut down a very good Tigers offense. He racked up eight strikeouts over six shutout innings and allowed just one hit. Rain could play a factor in the middle innings here, so we need to pay attention to any weather updates closer to game time. 

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds 

The reason we can be picky beyond the top tier of pitching on this slate is because Chase Burns is clearly mis-priced for his elite matchup with the Rockies. He has made just three big league starts in his career and he did not make it out of the first inning against the Red Sox after they identified he was tipping pitches. Burns appears to have corrected the issue as he looked dominant again in his last start against the Phillies. Control and efficiency are going to be concerns until Burns gains some more experience, but the strikeout upside is undeniable. He cruised through his only season in the minors with a strikeout rate of nearly 37% and has posted a 30.6% strikeout rate so far in the majors. The Rockies have struck out at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching, and they own a team wOBA of just .269 on the road this season. 

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

Cabrera has found more consistency this season by reducing the usage of his four-seam fastball, which has graded as a below average pitch by Stuff+ throughout his MLB career. He is relying more on his sinker and slider, and he has been able to reduce his walk rate to 9.2% while maintaining an above average strikeout rate. Cabrera has also been given a little more leash, as he reached 90 pitches and worked 7 innings in each of his last two starts. Today, he gets a matchup with the Orioles, who have been above average against right-handed pitching this season, but they also strike out at the 4th-highest rate in the league against righties. Cabrera should be significantly less popular than Chase Burns and even Max Scherzer at a similar price point, and that makes him a strong option for tournaments. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

New York Yankees vs Chris Flexen

The Yankees lead MLB in ISO and get a matchup with a low-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher in their homer-friendly home ballpark. Chris Flexen has dominant surface level stats out of the Cubs bullpen this season, but all the underlying metrics tell us this the same pitcher we have seen for years. Flexen has posted a .189 BABIP, 95.2% strand rate and 5.1% HR/FB rate that should all see major regression towards league average. His strikeout rate is all the way down at 13.9%. The big power bats of the Yankees should present big problems for Flexen today. Aaron Judge is the top hitter on the slate with his .353 ISO against righties since last season. Jazz Chisholm has owned righties this season with a .356 ISO. Giancarlo Stanton is heating up finally and posted a .275 ISO against righties last season. Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Volpe own an ISO of at least .167 versus righties this season, and Austin Wells is up at .224 ISO. 

Cincinnati Reds vs German Marquez 

German Marquez has posted a 5.84 ERA and the highest fly-ball rate of his career while managing just a 15.3% strikeout rate. That is a profile that screams trouble in Great American Ballpark today. Elly De La Cruz is one of the top hitters on the slate with his .237 ISO versus righties. Austin Hays and Will Benson both own an ISO above .200 against righties, while TJ Friedl and Gavin Lux both hit with the platoon advantage and have an above average wOBA against righties. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs Luis Severino 

The Blue Jays saw their 10-game winning streak come to an end last game, but they have the highest implied team total on the slate today as they head to Sutter Health Park for a meeting with the Athletics. Opposing pitcher Luis Severino has seen his ERA balloon to 5.30 as he has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three starts. His strikeout rate has fallen to just 15.1% this season. Addison Barger is in the best spot as a lefty who has dominated righties with a .274 ISO this season. Geroge Springer has had an excellent season with a .231 ISO and .398 wOBA against righties, while Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Nathan Lukes and Alejandro Kirk all own a wOBA of at least .336 versus righties. The Jays will also enjoy ideal hitting weather in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. 

Milwaukee Brewers vs Mitchell Parker 

The Brewers have been an average offense against lefties this season, but this is a great spot for them against Mitchell Parker. The lefty has seen both his strikeout and walk rates move in the wrong direction this season, and he has allowed a hard-hit rate of over 50%. Jackson Chourio (.250 ISO) and Isaac Collins (.239 ISO) have both been awesome against lefties this season. New addition Andrew Vaughn is really cheap and seems to be enjoying the change of scenery. William Contreras and Christian Yelich have been brutal against lefties this season but I am willing to roll the dice in a plus matchup. The Nationals bullpen behind Parker owns a 5.83 ERA, which is the the worst in baseball.   

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tyler Anderson 

The Diamondbacks have some extreme splits this season as they have been one of the best offenses in baseball against righties but have just average numbers against lefties. That is beginning to even out as the season rolls along, which makes sense given their success against lefties in previous seasons. The low strikeouts and extreme fly balls of opposing pitcher Tyler Anderson are an attractive target today. Anderson has allowed 1.49 HR/9 this season as his contact management has taken a step backwards. Ketel Marte is back to elite numbers against lefties after struggling against them to begin the season. Eugenio Suarez owns a massive .355 ISO against righties this season, and Corbin Carroll is up to .200 ISO. Geraldo Perdomo has a strong .361 wOBA hitting from the right side. Lourdes Gurriel and Randall Grichuk have both had a lot of career success when holding the platoon advantage. 

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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