MLB Streaks & Trends: July 12

Baseball was open for business once against last night and Rangers’ pitcher Lance Lynn picked up right where he left off before the All-Star Break. Lynn who had pitched to a 2.81 ERA in his last 10 starts, struck out 11 Astros batters and held them scoreless for seven innings.   Lynn, who for his career has a 3.41 second-half ERA compared to a 3.73 first-half ERA, seems poised to have a strong finish to his season. This week we’ll examine some players, like Lynn, who tend to pick up steam just as the dog days of summer arrive and who might make good trade targets as you continue to fight to win a fantasy baseball championship.

Tommy Pham , Rays

Pham is having a fine season, batting .281 with 13 home runs and eight stolen bases. He has mid-20 home run type power but with stolen bases being so hard to come by this season, his speed makes him extremely valuable. His career second-half batting average is .029 points higher than his first-half average and his on-base and slugging percentages are significantly higher in the second half as well.

Josh Donaldson , Braves

From the 2013 to 2017 seasons Donaldson was one of the top power hitters in fantasy baseball. He averaged 33 home runs and 98 RBI during that time period. We don’t think of him as a speedster, but he even averaged six stolen bases during that span. Recent injuries derailed his career, but with 18 home runs and 45 RBI through his first 87 games, he has been a solid fantasy contributor this season. He’s batting .297 with eight home runs in his last 21 games and based on his career first and second half splits, there’s a good chance that he’ll have a strong finish to the 2019 season. 

Lorenzo Cain , Brewers

Based on his career numbers Cain is having a subpar season, batting .246 with five home runs. However, those 10 bases he’s stolen thus far are enticing. He’s continued to slump lately, but Cain’s a lifetime .289 hitter who has had a career of big-time second-half finishes.

Edwin Encarnación , Yankees

His current .216 batting average is admittedly ugly, but he’s driven in 56 runs, and his 25 home runs are tied for fifth-best in baseball. His career .503 slugging percentage at Yankee Stadium gives him the potential to hit another 20 home runs before the season is over. His overall career numbers rise along with the mid-summer temperatures.

José Abreu , White Sox

Abreu is having a fine season, batting .278 with 21 home runs and 66 RBI but based on his career second-half numbers the best may be yet to come. His bat is heating up with the weather. Abreu is batting .462 with a 1.231 OPS and he’s hit 3 home runs and driven in 11 runs in his last nine games. The fantasy baseball first base position isn’t as deep as it used to be and you have to love Abreu’s potential for a big second half.  

Zack Wheeler , Mets

Wheeler’s 2019 stats are borderline ugly. He’s pitched to a 4.69 ERA and yes home run production is up across the board, but he’s already given up more home runs (16) this season as compared to his entire 2018 season (14). On a positive note, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all under 4.00. He’s been the subject of trade rumors and if he can get away from the toxic situation surrounding the Mets and join a team that can actually field the ball (the Mets have committed 65 errors, that’s tied for the third-most in baseball) he can be a viable fantasy option going forward. Wheeler’s numbers have historically been significantly better in the second half.

Masahiro Tanaka , Yankees

Tanaka has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.181 WHIP for the 2019 season however based on his career numbers, we’re getting to his favorite time of year. He has given up almost a half run less in the second half for his career. Last season Tanaka really clamped down after the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.85 ERA and he struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings. 

Lastly, let’s examine some players who were on fire heading into the All-Star Break.

Ozzie Albies , Braves

Albies was a fantasy darling in 2018 preseason drafts but, while his overall numbers were good, they weren’t great. He batted .261 with 24 home runs and 14 stolen bases, but he eventually hit a brick wall. Albies batted just .201 with three home runs and two stolen bases in his last 44 games last season. He’s been raking over the past month, putting up a .343/.402.676 triple slash. He has an overall .290 batting average this season, and according to MLB’s Statcast, that average is just about on target with his .295 expected batting average (xBA).

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. , Blue Jays

Gurriel is batting .350 with 10 home runs and 18 RBI in his last 20 games. His Brls/PA% has climbed to 8.9, compared to 5.7 last season. We should prepare ourselves for some regression, however the fact that his current .339 BABIP is within the range of his career average suggests that we shouldn’t expect to see a significant freefall in his production. DFS players should note that he’s batting .338 with a .775 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season. 

Jake Bauers , Indians

Bauers’ minor league power and speed numbers made him an intriguing fantasy option. It isn’t often that you find a fantasy player eligible at first base, who can provide double-digit stolen base production. Unfortunately, he hasn’t stolen as many bases as we would have liked thus far in his young career, however, the rest of his game has been doing just fine. Over his last 31 games, Bauers is batting .297 with six home runs and 17 RBI.

Jordan Yamamoto , Marlins

Yamamoto has had a nice start to his big league career, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.24 ERA in his first five starts. Winning three games for a team like the Marlins? That’s huge! He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his starts and has yet to yield a home run in this live-ball era. Expect a drop off. How much regression we’ll see depends on which of the ERA estimators you believe. His FIP is 2.79, however, his xFIP and SIERA are 4.75 and 4.78, respectively. 

Michael Pineda , Twins

Pineda’s got one of the best offenses in baseball supporting him every time he takes to the mound, but he hasn’t needed them lately. Pineda has given up just one run in four of his last five starts, pitching to a 2.83 ERA. Opponents are batting just .226 against him during that span and he has struck out 31 batters in his last 28.2 IP. Beware! All three ERA estimators suggest major regression is in his future.

Aníbal Sánchez , Nationals

The Nationals have been surging of late and so has Sanchez. In his last 10 starts, he’s pitching to a 2.26 ERA and he has struck out 48 batters in his last 51.2 IP. Opposing hitters are batting .208 against him during that time frame. The fact that Sanchez is pitching well shouldn’t be too surprising since he posted a 2.83 ERA in 136.2 IP for the Braves last season, however fantasy owners should tread lightly! All three of his ERA estimators are north of 4.50.