Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 10

Two weeks ago I was asking the fantasy gods for more tight end involvement and my wish was granted. Last week, I tried the same with the running backs. While the universe failed to fulfill my request, I didn’t get the metaphysical backlash I thought would come my way after expressing a level of hubris often frowned upon by the gods. Instead, it was just more of what we’ve seen all year.

The target totals were down for running backs last week, but returned to the normal level we had seen in the weeks prior. Eight running backs saw six or more targets this past week with most of the usual suspects – Le’Veon Bell, Darren Sproles and David Johnson – but there were also a couple of names we have yet to discuss here in C.J. Prosise, Kenneth Dixon and Rashad Jennings. None of them saw anything outlandish, but the question remains – can either of them maintain or improve those target numbers?

Of the three “newcomers,” Prosise is obviously the one with the most upside here. During the offseason, the Seahawks were setting up for Thomas Rawls to work the early downs between the tackles while Prosise was going to be the third down/pass-catching back. Injuries may have sidetracked things, but now that Rawls is healthy, the team is ready to return to the original game plan; so much so that the team released Christine Michael. Also working in Prosise’s favor is that the Seahawks could be reverting back to what they did over the final seven games last season and go with a pass-heavy offense. That will definitely favor Prosise with regard to snaps and, hopefully, targets.

As for Dixon and Jennings, I’m much more lukewarm. Dixon obviously has upside, but still seems to be looking up at a glass ceiling in Baltimore. It’s not that Terrence West is doing much to hold him back, but for whatever reason, Dixon’s touches continue to stay limited. For Jennings, it was just a game flow thing. He is listed as the No. 1 pass-blocker according to Pro Football Focus and that ability affords him more snaps than Paul Perkins, but he is not someone I consider when I’m looking at backs in PPR formats. He’s low-end RB4 material still as the Giants continue to rank dead last in total rushing yards this season.

Now let’s get to the targets…

Week 10 Targets Leaders

As always, a tip of the cap to our weekly leaders. No surprise with Jordy Nelson or Antonio Brown leading the way as both were in favorable match-ups. Larry Fitzgerald, on the other hand, was a bit of a surprise as virtually everyone expected a ridiculously heavy dose of David Johnson and then a splash of Andre Ellington with the 49ers run defense being so porous. Everyone except Bruce Arians who, for whatever reason, opted to have Carson Palmer throw the ball 49 times. Personally, I was hoping the Cardinals would lose the game because of Arians’ stupidity, but I did reap the benefits of Fitzgerald’s targets in a few leagues.

In looking for DFS bargains last week, I had hoped to see Albert Wilson or even Chris Conley would see a bump in targets, but as expected (at least via group-think) it was Tyreek Hill who saw the extra work with Jeremy Maclin nursing a groin injury. He’s a solid talent and should be incorporated more in the offense, but without any consistency, he’s not one you can trust just yet. Perfect example of reaching the high ceiling occasionally, but spending more time hugging the low floor.

Jordan Matthews makes another appearance here thanks to his third-straight double-digit target game, but his failure to reach the end zone in such a ridiculously soft match-up keeps him off my list of potential DFS targets and barely worth a nod in seasonal play. Not only was he a bust against the Falcons, but his upcoming schedule isn’t exactly the most favorable we’ve seen. Couple that with Carson Wentz’ struggles under center and Matthews is nothing more than a low end WR3/high WR4 at best.

For just the second time this season, Pierre Garcon found his way to double-digit targets and yet again, he comes up short with respect to fantasy production. While DeSean Jackson’s shoulder issue could push a few extra targets Garcon’s way, the Redskins receiver to own is still Jamison Crowder who has seen an average of nine targets over his last three games and has scored in three of his last four.

Click Next to get to the Overall Targets Leaderboard & continued analysis ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

If you’re a Doug Baldwin owner, you probably needed a change of underwear after Sunday’s win over the Patriots. If that’s the case, it’s probably time to go commando. It was this time last season when Pete Carrol took the reins off Russell Wilson and let him run free and we’re probably looking at something in the neighborhood of a repeat performance. Does that mean his target rate increases? Not so fast. Last year, at this time, Baldwin had a 19-percent target rate to Jimmy Graham’s 23.7percent. This season, Graham is sitting at 21.7-percent to Baldwin’s mark of 24.3-percent. We don’t expect a repeat of those 2015 numbers, but following a three-touchdown game, most expect that a player is going to see a major uptick in targets moving forward. If anything, I’m guessing Baldwin’s rate driops a little as Wilson looks to keep both equally involved.

Step by step, inch by inch, slowly he creeps. That’s right, baby! Rishard Matthews is here and well worth a pick-up if for some reason he is available. His target rate is on the rise while that of Tajae Sharpe is on the decline and even with Delanie Walker getting his usual workload, Matthews should continue to be a solid asset moving forward and will finish the season as the unquestioned No. 1 receiver on the Titans.

Red Zone Target Leaders

While I’ve been driving the Hunter Henry bandwagon all year, I have to pull over to the side of the road here to promote Antonio Gates. He is fourth in the league with 17 red zone targets and you can bet your ass that number is going to climb over the next several weeks. What few people realize is that Gates is sitting on 109 career touchdowns, just two shy of the NFL record held by Tony Gonzalez. Philip Rivers and Gates have been brothers-in-arms for the past 13 years and you can bet your ass Rivers wants to get Gates that record and then some. Expect the red zone targets to continue to climb and with it, his red zone target rate. Don’t worry…Tyrell Williams will still get his, but Gates is still likely to get the first look each time inside the 20.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 11 Game to Watch

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

It’s an easy game to pick out given the over/under of 53, but even without seeing the line, you should have been drawn to this match-up. The Colts pass defense ranks 30^th in the league, the Titans’ ranks 26^th and when these two teams met back in Week 7, Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota combined for 585 passing yards with five combined touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen should all be started this week, as should Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker. If you’re playing in GPPs, I’d make sure I had a piece of Tajae Sharpe and Kendall Wright. As for DeMarco Murray, a must-start as is and saw five targets back in Week 7. Get some, baby!