Fantasy Football RPV Breakdown: NFL Week 1 RB

After settling the QB position in my last piece, we turn our attention now to the running backs using the The Fantasy Black Book’s  Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) tool. Relative Position Value compares a player’s value against his peers based on his production with a simple percentage. However, in the daily fantasy game we must take this method a step further because it’s simply not enough to know how much better one player is a position than another. We must quantify the rate of that production in accordance with the player’s salary.

Just like at QB, there are running backs who are underpriced because the salaries were released before starting jobs were determined. However, as we discovered in the QB RPVPD, discount doesn’t always equal value. We’re looking for the sweet spot between productivity and price; along with favorable matchup and weather elements to find our best selections. That’s the path to pay lines!

Here’s the RPVPD for FanDuel RB Week 1 (top 32 relevant backs):

Now, unfortunately we must use last year’s Fantasy Points per Game average because the season hasn’t begun. This is far from ideal because we’re fielding a team for 2016 not 2015, but it’s enough to give us a jumping off point. For players like Ezekiel Elliot who have no average established, I’ve used moderate projected points. With Week 1 pricing being released before starting positions are settled or without knowledge of suspensions or injuries, there can be plenty of opportunities to exploit the system.

Spencer Ware and Terrence West are trending upward now in terms of ownership based on their very low salaries and new found potential volume. Ware’s YPC last year was around the elite level when he was playing, but there’s still a chance Charcandrick West eats into his carries. Also, Charles hasn’t officially been ruled out as of this piece going live just yet (though seems likely). It’s the same song in Baltimore with West, as Buck Allen and Justin Forsett still lurk over his shoulder.

There are a pair of $6.5K backs coming off an injury plagued 2015 season that blow the field away in terms value. Arian Foster may be a terrifying season long investment, but as of today he’s the #1 and “healthy”. The trouble is, Seattle isn’t the friendliest foe. Matt Forte on the other hand at home versus the Bengals offers comparable RPVPD value and a better matchup. Forte has always been a back capable of contributing in the passing game and as a RB2 he’s a strong selection with a nice potential floor.

Danny Woodhead and Mark Ingram were both strong values last year and are once again towards the top of the class this week. The edge goes to Ingram with the home matchup and the TD upside. The most cost effective cash game RB is actually Davonta Freeman of the Falcons. Yes, Tevin Coleman will have some moments, but Freeman is still the man in Atlanta until injury or performance dictate a changing of the guard. Toddy Gurley is merely an average option in terms of cost efficiency and David Johnson is actually a negative -21%.

When it comes to RB, you want to be positive that you aren’t wasting dollars that could be spent on big time WR with more explosive point totals. Tie breakers should go to TD scorers and don’t discount the pass catching backs like Duke Johnson and Gio Bernard as RB2’s. RPVPD allows you to automatically thin the heard and focus on a select few. These targets can then be sorted and chosen based on matchup, conditions etc. making for a more efficient way of researching and constructing your lineup.

Who will be in your DFS backfield Week 1?

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and The Fantasy Black Book/Sunday GameDay on FNTSY Network Radio.