As we fantasy baseball managers are knee deep in our preseason draft prep, we’re full of optimism. It seems easy to identify potential sleepers who can help lead your fantasy baseball team to a coveted championship. But unfortunately, all too often reality sets in, and sometimes our fantasy sleepers turn into fantasy baseball busts. 

What’s a Fantasy Baseball Bust?

For the purposes of this article, a fantasy baseball bust is a baseball player who doesn’t live up to his preseason expectations. Maybe he’s going too high in preseason drafts, and you can get the same type of production from a similar player in later rounds. Perhaps the comeback that you’re expecting from a ball player just isn’t in the cards, and last season’s regression is his new norm. Injuries can lead a ball player to become a fantasy baseball bust. If you plan on rostering a ball player that’s been a permanent fixture on the IL, like a Jacob deGrom or a Byron Buxton, then there’s a good chance that you’ll have a fantasy baseball bust on your team.

The following are several fantasy baseball busts and regression candidates that you should think twice about rostering.

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Busts and Regression Candidates

Oneil Cruz, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP: 93

Cruz got off to a good start last season, and by the end of April, he had already crushed eight home runs and had a respectable .253 BA and an above-average .902 OPS. Even his 27.5 % strikeout rate was much improved compared to his 2024 rate. Unfortunately, once the calendar flipped to May, Cruz’s season fell apart. He batted just .185 and hit only 12 more home runs in his last 424 plate appearances. Cruz has tremendous raw talent, including elite barrel %, bat speed and average exit velocity, but other than his stolen base numbers (38 in 2025), his fantasy production continued to regress last season. His overall 2025 32% strikeout rate was the highest of his career, and his 86 wRC+, .200 BA, and .676 OPS were all career lows. Despite his above average power metrics, his above-average ground ball rate will likely continue to put a cap on his overall HR totals. Almost all major projection models predict a modest bounce back 2026 season for Cruz, but none project a BA over .244 or a HR total greater than 24. As this article is being written, Cruz is the 20th outfielder coming off the board in NFBC preseason drafts. Tyler Soderstrom (1B/OF eligible) and Seiya Suzuki are being selected right behind him and are likely much safer options who have higher upside than Cruz in 2026.

Bo Bichette, Shortstop/Third Base, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 108

Bichette enjoyed a solid bounce-back 2025 season, batting .311 and posting an .840 OPS. He has very good underlying skills as a hitter, but signing with the New York Mets after a seven-year career with the Toronto Blue Jays might cause his batting stats to regress a bit in 2026. He’ll be playing his home games in Citi Field, which, by Statcast’s park factors, is the fourth toughest ballpark on right-handed hitters like Bichette. The Mets are also asking Bichette to play third base, a position that he’s never played in his either his minor or major league career. Bichette wasn’t known for being a good defensive shortstop to begin with, and the combination of his having to learn a new defensive infield position, with a new team, in a pitcher’s ballpark, could be a distraction that affects his plate skills at least for the short term. Bichette is a professional hitter, and he’ll eventually adjust to his new surroundings and his new defensive position, but he might have a rocky road ahead of him in 2026.

Cal Raleigh, Catcher, Seattle Mariners

NFBC ADP: 18

Raleigh had a season for the ages in 2025, slugging a major league leading 60 HR and batting a career high .247. He’s being drafted as the first catcher coming off the board in NFBC preseason drafts and deservedly so, but if you plan on rostering him this season, expect a significant drop off in most of his offensive categories. Prior to 2025, Raleigh had never hit more than 34 home runs in a season, and his career batting average was .218. Part of his 2025 breakout can be tied to the refinements he made to his swing last season. Raleigh increased his pull and flyball rates, and he was more selective at the plate. Those adjustments should carry over to the 2026 season, and while preseason projection models expect his offense to significantly regress, it’s probably not enough to cause you to avoid rostering him, unless you’re wary of his predicted BA. A home run total in the high 30 to 40-plus range is likely for 2026, but Raleigh batted .215 in his final 76 games of the 2025 season (close to his previous career average). Projection models optimistically expect his 2026 batting average to be in the .230 to .240 range. Look for his 2026 stolen base total to take a step back as well. He stole 14 bases in 2025, but with a sprint speed in the 26th percentile, a total closer to 10 is probably more realistic for the 2026 season. 

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 164

Albies’ fantasy production has been on a downward slide since his career year back in 2023. In that season, Albies posted career highs in home runs (33), RBI (109), and wRC+ (125). Since then, Albies’ power metrics such as ISO, barrel%, and hard-hit rate have been in decline. His .240 BA last season was a career low, and his xBA for the past two seasons has also been stuck in the .240’s. His 2025 average bat speed and competitive swing rates were also career lows. Not only has his offense tailed off, but he’s become a bit fragile, spending parts of four of the last five seasons on the IL. At this point in Albies’ career, expecting more than a .245 BA with 15-plus HR power and 13-plus stolen base production would be a mistake. Second base is one of the shallowest in fantasy baseball. Albies is being drafted as the ninth-best option at the keystone position in preseason NFBC ADP drafts, but if he ends up being your best second base option on draft day, then you’ve waited too long to draft your fantasy baseball second baseman. 

Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners

NFBC ADP: 92

Like Albies, Arozarena’s fantasy production has eroded over the past two seasons. In his first four seasons as a big leaguer, Arozarena averaged 24 HR, 27 SB, and he compiled a .265 BA and an .802 OPS. Over the last two seasons, his power and stolen bases numbers haven’t changed much, but fantasy managers rostering him had to absorb his extremely low .229 BA. Based on his expected stats and projection models, we can probably presume more of the same from Arozarena in 2026. Good home run and stolen base production, combined with a below-average BA. He’s the 19th outfielder being drafted in NFBC preseason drafts, right behind Cody Bellinger. With Bellinger re-signing with the New York Yankees, he seems like a much better choice than Arozarena. 

Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 74

In three seasons between 2021 and 2023, Riley averaged 36 HR, 99 RBI, and a .286 BA and .878 OPS. Injuries have limited Riley’s playing time for the last two seasons, but based on his 162-game average, Riley’s season-long HR average dropped to just under 27, and his RBI average fell to just under 85 per season. His BA over the 2024 and 2025 seasons dropped to below .260, and his OPS dropped by more than .100 points to .760. Riley’s K rate has increased in each of the last two seasons, and by the end of 2025, it was a bloated 28.6. His walk rate has also trended down over the last two seasons. While Riley is still in the prime of his career at just 29 years old, the days of him being a lock for a HR total in the mid-30 range could be behind him for good. Riley might not be a total bust, but most major projection models have him hitting less than 30 home runs in 2026, and all but one suggests that he has a chance of posting an OPS above .800.  

Owen Caissie, OF, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: ADP 553

Based on his ADP, you won’t have to invest a lot of draft capital to roster Caissie, but although he’s considered a top prospect, you should think twice before adding him to your fantasy baseball team. It might take him some time to get accustomed to facing big league pitching, especially since he spent much of his minor league career posting strikeout rates in the high 28 to low 30% range. Most projection models suggest that he’ll continue to post high strikeout rates and be a big drain on your fantasy baseball team’s batting average in the early going of his big-league career.

Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 37

Sale will be 37 years old on Opening Day, but despite being a veteran ball player, if Sale is healthy, he should still be considered a top fantasy baseball starting pitcher. That’s a big if because Sale has spent parts of five of the last six seasons on the IL. He should basically be considered a Jacob deGrom light. When he pitches, he’s elite. He’s expected to be fully healthy for the start of spring training, but based on his injury history, there’s a good chance he’ll hit the IL at some point before the end of the 2026 season. Despite the risk, Sale is being selected ahead of Bryan Woo, Hunter Greene, Cole Ragans, and the rock-solid Logan Webb in preseason NFBC drafts. Drafting Sale ahead of those pitchers is probably a big mistake.

Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 101

Strider is yet another Atlanta Braves starting pitcher who is unlikely to live up to preseason expectations. Strider pitched 125.1 innings in 2025 and saw his first game action since undergoing his most recent UCL surgery back in April 2024. Unfortunately, the results weren’t what fantasy baseball managers were hoping for. Strider suffered significant velocity loss on three of the four pitches in his repertoire, including his fastball and slider, and he had issues with his control. Strider’s 3.7 BB/9 was significantly higher than his career average. As a result of his not getting as much movement on his pitches as he had in the past, his 2025 chase % decreased. Perhaps an extra year removed from his 2024 UCL surgery will help Strider recapture some of the magic that helped him win 20 games back in 2023, but for now, drafting him ahead of Cam Schlittler, Jacob Misiorowski, and Trey Yesavage, all of whom have good upside potential, seems like a bad strategy. 

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP: 124

If you look at preseason NFBC ADPs, Hoffman is being drafted ahead of Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan, and Daniel Palencia, all of whom will almost unquestionably open the season as their respective teams’ closer. As we approach spring training, it appears that at best, Hoffman has a tenuous hold on the closer’s role for the Blue Jays. Ross Atkins, the Blue Jays’ GM, hasn’t committed to using Hoffman in that role and understandably so. Hoffman had been an excellent setup man for the Phillies, but fell flat on his face after the Jays signed him as a free agent and made him their closer. Hoffman had a 5.06 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in save situations last season, but a much better 3.52 ERA and 1.011 WHIP when pitching in non-save situations. Hoffman’s problems with giving up the long ball last season have been well documented, and even if he does start the season as the Jays’ closer, he may not end the season in that role.Â