Were you one of those people who liked report card day back in school? I wasn’t but not for reasons that you might think. Being the youngest of five my parents really didn’t care what kind of grades I got because at that point they had seen it all. Even at a young age I had a thirst to learn and to know. I would pay attention to the things that I wanted to learn about and drift off when the class was talking something I didn’t care about. This happens in fantasy sports all of the time except now I am the teacher, which sucks a lot more than I thought it did by the way. But I realize now that people will often say I am wrong or stupid because of one piece of advice that may have gone wrong in a given day or week. They say that because this was the one piece of advice that they really cared about. But the fact is that I give out thousands of opinions and recommendations every single day. As much as I hate to admit it, I am not always right either.
So each week I will be going over all of my rankings, projections, lineup advice and strong opinions and letting the record speak for itself. Obviously this is a risky proposition considering if I am wrong too much it could be a severe hit to my career. But I have confidence because fantasy football is something that I love and have a desire to learn about every single day. So despite the risk, I accept this challenge.
Here is the first edition of Right, Wrong or Indifferent taking a look back at NFL Week 1:
RIGHT
Miami Dolphins Offense
All summer long I have been telling people that the Dolphins offense was in for a major upgrade this season. A brand new offensive coordinator with an up-tempo aggressive play calling system combined with two brand new offensive tackles, makes for quite an upgrade in my opinion.
Although Ryan Tannehill only passed for 178 yards & 2 TD’s the Dolphins positively smashed the New England defense on the ground. Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller rushed 35-193 yards & 1 TD on the day. Miller also scored on a four yard pass which is another dimension Miami didn’t utilize well last season.
Make no mistake that this was a complete thrashing for the Dolphins and a bonafide success for this new Dolphins offense.
All summer long I have been touting Forte as the overall #1 pick in fantasy football. Although he didn’t get into the endzone in week one, his 169 total yards and eight receptions show the type of numbers he will put up this year. Looking at the anemic games of JaMaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson and you see why I chose Forte as the #1. Sure the rest of these guys will still put up great seasons but Forte will never post a lower output than 34 total yards as Charles did in week one.
Rarely does a Hall Of Fame player coming off of a 77 catch season go completely unnoticed and even undrafted in some leagues. But that is what happened to Gates this year as everybody and their Brother endorsed LaDarius Green as the next big thing in San Diego.
The fact of the matter is that Gates is as healthy as he has been in three years and is still a very trusted and reliable target or QB Phillip Rivers. LaDarius Green is a good player but Gates is the primary TE in San Diego and that will not change this year.
WRONG
Referees Calling Equal Penalties on the Seahawks Defense
I would love to say that I was wrong about the NFL Referees calling more holding, illegal contact and illegal use of the hand penalties as they promised they would all offseason. But the problem is they did. Those three penalties were called an unbelievable 54 times across the NFL in week one. Compare that to the 17 defensive holding, illegal contact and illegal use of the hand penalties that there were in week one of 2013 and you have a 218% increase league wide.
I downright knew that these new penalties would cause DB’s trouble and I truly thought that the Seahawks defenders would be effected the most. The Seahawks DB’s put their hands on the receiver more than any other team in the NFL. But you want to know how many penalties they were whistled for in week one against the Packers? Zero.
The Seahawks had one pass interference call against them which was called on LB Bobby Wagner. So despite the entire NFL more than doubling the number of coverage penalties, the Seahawks remained squeaky clean. Home field advantage indeed.
After watching that Monday Night debacle I cannot believe that I thought that Eli Manning would have a good game against the Lions in week one. The thing about Eli is that we’ve seen him turn into a prince from a frog so many times that it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he came out and threw four TD’s one weekend.
I figured with all of the time the Giants have had to prepare for a weak Lions secondary, they would be able to rack some fine passing stats in the opener. Obviously that is not what happened. Eli Manning, I wish I knew how to quit you.
St. Louis Rams Defense
I have been high on this Rams defense since the addition of DT Aaron Donald in the draft this May. I was certain that they would be able to hold down Matt Cassel and the Vikings offense in week one but they just plain didn’t. I have my theories on why the defense suddenly imploded in the second half but that is neither here nor there. They wet the bed this past Sunday and thus I was wrong.
I will add one thing here about the Rams defense in that I am still very much on the bandwagon for the rest of the season. Don’t forget that in fantasy the return game plays a big role in team defense. The Rams have one of the best returners in the game in Tavon Austin and thus I am not giving up on this unit after just one game.
INDIFFERENT
I have Ben Tate on just about every seasonal fantasy team this year. I am a big believer in him and the Cleveland Browns running game. Well after just six carries Tate left the game with a knee injury and never returned. He had already racked up 41 yards on those six carries a 6.8 YPC average.
Terrence West came in and rushed 16-100 yards while Isaiah Crowell added 5-32 yards and two TD’s. Overall this Browns team shredded the Steelers defense on the ground but unfortunately Tate was just a small part of that due to the injury. This is a classic right call that still doesn't work out because of circumstances that are beyond anyone's control. It's one of the reasons why fantasy football is so great to be honest with you. Being able to know what the outcomes will be but never knowing exactly how they will get there is one of the biggest lures to this game that we all love.
Some may argue about this going into the loss column but that is just ridiculous. Sure Fiedorowicz didn’t secure a single target in week one but the fact that he was the Texans main TE the entire game is a very good thing going forward.
After all, I never recommended anybody start Fiedorowicz this week but rather stash him for his eventual breakout. Fiedorowicz started and played 56 out of a possible 61 snaps (92%) for the Texans offense in week one. That is extraordinarily rare for a rookie especially at the TE position. Compare that to Eric Ebron of the Lions who only lined up for 18 out of the Lions 68 snaps (26%) and I would say that Fiedorowicz had a very successful start to his NFL career. The fantasy points will follow for as long as he is on the field.
I’ve said a thousand times that I believe Andrew Luck will elevate his game into the upper echelon of fantasy QB’s this year. The matchup against Peyton Manning in Denver was one in which I figured that he would be up for the challenge just as he was when the Colts defeated the unbeaten Broncos late last season in Indianapolis.
The finals numbers would say that I was right on the money here. Luck was 35-53 for 370 yards with 2 TD’s and 2 INT. He also rushed for 19 yards and another TD. That gave Luck 26.7 fantasy points in week one which was third best of all QB’s.
So what is wrong with that? Well I didn’t feel as though Luck played very well in the first half when the Broncos were playing their base defense. Later in the game the Broncos went into “protect” mode which is where many of Lucks points came from. Sure we will take garbage points in fantasy but it to rely on it is another thing altogether. I want to see Luck start a game with the same fury he has been closing them with the past two seasons.
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