Statistical Nuances from the Nomadby Michael Pichan the Fantasy Nomad Welcome into the realm of Fantasy Football analysis where the focus is on unearthing information that will help your Fantasy Football team gain an advantage over of the competition. Each week, I will dig through the data, so you don't have to, to provide a deeper explanation of what happened, uncover why those things happened, and whether we should expect those things to continue to happen.Quarterbacks
  • Michael Vick led all QB's in drop backs with 61 (and in pass attempts with 56) followed by Drew Brees 52 drop backs, Matthew Stafford (48), Carson Palmer (46), and Andrew Luck (45). Brees, Luck, and Vick had three of the five lowest completion percentages amongst starting QB's and Vick led the NFL in interceptions in Week One with four (tied with Brandon Weeden).
  • Alex Smith's 76.9 completion percentage led all QB's in week one followed by Tony Romo (75.9%), Tom Brady (74.2%), Matt Ryan 74.2%), and Christian Ponder (74.1%). Alex Smith finished 2011 in the top 15 in completion percentage whereas Ponder was tied for 34th worst
Stats that Stand Out at the QB Position:
  • Robert Griffin III- 19 for 26, 320 yds., 2 TD, 0 INT, 10 rushes, 42 yds, 0 TDThe Data= 8 of Griffin's 10 rushes were by design, he was the first rookie QB to have a perfect passer rating (having thrown 10 or more passes) at the half, and threw for the fourth longest touchdown in history by QB in their debut.  What to Make of It: At least for this game, RG3 showed that can function in the pocket and be more then a run first quarterback.
  • Michael Vick- 29 for 56 317 yds., 2 TD, 4 INT, 2 Fumbles, 7 rushes for 32 yds and 0 TDThe Data- Vick lead the NFL in drop backs with 61, pass attempts, tied for the lead in interceptions, (with Browns QB Brandon Weeden), with four, had the third worst passer rating, and the fifth worst completion percentage of any QB in Week One.What to Make of It: Owning Vick was already a risk due to his past and present injury concerns, add in this poor performance, coupled with the injury to his top targeted receiver WR Jeremy Maclin  and Vick's status as a QB1 could come into question. If Maclin were to miss any time WR Jason Avant's value (5 targets, 4 catches, 27 yds, & 0 TD) would get a boost
  • Matthew Stafford- 32 for 48 355 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INTThe Data=Stafford led all QB's in passing yards and in deep ball Accuracy Percentage, (includes completions and drops), of passes of 20 yards or more.What to Make of It: In 2011, Stafford had only two games where he threw for three or more interceptions. Despite the three interceptions, thanks to Calvin Johnson (7 targets, 6 rec. for 111 yds), Brandon Pettigrew [10 targets (second most targets at the TE position in week one), 5 rec. for 77 yds] and Nate Burleson (8 targets, 6 rec. for 69 yds), Stafford still finished as the top QB in terms of yards passing, a spot you should see him near each week.
  • Peyton Manning- 19 for 26, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 4 rushes for 3 ydsThe Data=129.2 NFL Passer Rating (5th best in Week One), 5-5 passes to the left side and 6 for 8 on passes to the rightWhat to Make of It: Manning hasn't should any inability to complete passes to either side of the field and is on pace to have over 4,000 yards passing in 2012.
  • Eli Manning-21/32 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INTThe Data=17 of Eli's 21 completions were for 9 yds or lessWhat to Make of It: The loss of Mario Manningham in the off-season, a banged up Hakeem Nicks (only five targets/four receptions), and three drops by Victor Cruz  lead to Eli's lowest passing yard total since 12/13/2010 when he threw for only 187 yards. Eli threw for at least 250 yards in all but two games in 2011, including the playoffs. Eli should still put up Top 10 QB numbers, but a lot will count on the health of Nicks and whether someone else can step in a fill the void left when Manningham departed.
Wide Receivers
  • Reggie Wayne led all wide recievers in snaps (60), targets (18), and was tied for first in receptions (nine) with Randall Cobb and Brandon Marshall
  • Three receivers were tied with nine receptions Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, and Brandon Marshall, which was top amongst all wide outs.
  • Andrew Hawkins (9 targets, 8 catches) accumulated 90 Yards After the Catch (YAC) which was top amongst wide outs in Week One ahead of Demaryius Thomas (86 YAC), Percy Harvin (77 YAC), Randall Cobb (61 YAC), and Julio Jones (51 YAC).
Stats that Stand Out at the WR Position:
  • Kevin Olgtree-8 catches for 114 yards (14.3 Y/C) and 2 TD's: The Data=Olgtree only played 33 snaps/22 passing, 11 of which he was targeted for in this game (accounted for 36% of his team's receptions). Compare that to Miles Austin 57/33, Dez Bryant 58/32, and Jason Witten  53/21. What to Make of It: Looking back at Laurent Robinson and his big year last season with the Cowboys, we see that there is a good chance that Olgetree will at least have an opportunity to show that he is not a flash in the pan. In Laurent Robinson's fourth game of the season we saw him finish with only 2 catches for 25 yards and no touchdowns while being on the field for just 21 snaps, 11 passing. It would be after this week that Robinson would blow up going five weeks in a row scoring at least one TD (seven total in that time span), in larger part because he was on the field for at least 22 passing plays a game. What this tells me is that if you perform for the Cowboys they will get you on the field and give you an opportunity to prove you can continue to perform. So, at least in the short-term, Ogletree could see an increase in playing time and thus the opportunity would be there for Ogletreeto provide Fantasy Owners with more solid Fantasy production.
  • Rod Streater- 4 catches for 27 yards, and 1 TD: Streater was on the field for all but one of the Radiers' 74 offensive plays and led all Raiders' wide receivers in targets with nine the next closets was Darrius Heyward-Bay with six targets. What to Make of It: Contrary to popular belief it looks like Streater, at least in the short term, could be in a position to have the most opportunities of any Radiers wide receiver. So, if you are desperate in deep PPR leagues Streater may be the Raiders wide out to own, but like I said on the Colton and The Wolfman Show on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Show Tuesday night, "I have to believe there are better options out there for you at this point then Rod Streater." If, Darren McFadden (18 targets, 13 rec.) were to miss any games then, owning Streater in shallow league formats would become more defensible. (Side Note: Darren McFadden led all running backs in targets, nine more then next closest back LeSean McCoy)
  • WR Brandon Marshall- 9 catches for 119 yds. and 1 TD: Marshall finished with 15 targets (second most) and tied for first in receptions of any wide receiver in week one. What to Make of It: As Peaches and Herb said, "Reunited and it feels so good!" As expected Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall looked as good as they did in their glory days with the Broncos. If it weren't for two pass interferences calls in the end zone Brandon Marshall could have easily finished as the number Fantasy wide receiver in week one.
  • Victor Cruz- 6 catches, 58 yds, and 0 TD's:Cruz was targeted a team high 11 times, finished with a 54.5% reception rate (three drops), and only 2.8 Yards After the Catch (YAC). What to Make of It: In 19 of 20 games last season Cruz dropped no more than one pass, including eight games where he did not drop a single pass. The one other game Cruz dropped only two passes all the way back in week 10, on the road, versus the tough defensive minded Niners. Cruz proved last year that he is a reliable reciever as he had a 68.2% reception average while averaging 6.4 YAC in 2011, thus we should expect this game to be anomaly of his expected production as the season goes on.
  • Kendall Wright- 5 catches, 37 yds., and 0 TD: Wright was on the field for 52 snaps, 41 passing plays both team highs amongst Titans' wide receivers. What to Make of It: It's promising to see that the rookie led all wide receivers in terms of plays on the field, even though the final stat line is not that impressive, in part, because Jake Locker (before leaving the game with an injured shoulder) targeted nine different players.
  • Greg Little- four targets, zer0 receptions                                                                                                                                                              The Data= 4 targets, 0 catches, on the field for 50 of the teams 62 snaps (33 of the teams 40 passing plays)What to Make of It: At this point Greg Little, and all Browns' wide receivers and tight ends, are droppable in all non-keeper formats, as the outlook of QB Brandon Weeden is very dim.Other Browns' receivers (snaps, pass plays/targets): Mohamed Massaquoi (53/35/8), Josh Gordon (43/29/4), Travis Benjamin (22/16/6), and Josh Cribbs (1/0/0)
  • Malcom Floyd- 4 catches, 66 yards, and 1 TDThe Data=Floyd led all Chargers' wide receivers in snaps (51 ) and targets (six)What to Make of It:Outside of TE Antonio Gates (8 targets) it appears that Floyd will be Philip Rivers' favorite target over newly acquired WR Robert Meachem (36 snaps, 2 targets). This should not come as a surprise since Rivers already has a good report with Floyd, who has averaged about 42 catches and close to 800  yards receiving the last three seasons.
  • Danny Amendola- 9 targets, 5 catches for 70 yards, and 0 TDThe Data-Was on the field for 52 of the teams 58 snapsWhat to Make of It- Amendola led all Rams receivers with nine targets, which was five more than the next closest players, Brandon Gibson and Stephen Jackson. As long as Amendola can stay healthy, it appears that Bradford will continue to rely on him to be his primary target and make Amendola a player to own in PPR leagues.For more on players from the Rams and Lions check out  the RotoInfo.com 2 Guys and a Friggin Fantasy Sports Show
Running Backs
  • LeSean McCoy lead all RB's in snaps with 81 followed by Darren McFadden (70), surprisingly Marshawn Lynch was third in snaps amongst RB's (63), and finishing out the top five was Matt Forte (56), and Steven Jackson (55)
  • Rookie Alfred Morris top all backs in carries with 28, right behind Alf was Shonn Greene (27), supposedly hampered Arian Foster (26), Doug Martin (24), and three backs were tied for fifth most carries Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson, and Marshawn Lynch (21)
  • The top targeted out RB were Darren McFadden 18 (13 rec.), LeSean McCoy (9), Chris Johnson (7), and three backs finished with six targets Kevin Smith, Darren Sproles, and Reggie Bush.
  • Darren McFadden also led all running backs in receptions with 13 followed by LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, and Reggie Bush all with six receptions out of the backfield.
Stats that Stand Out at the RB Position:
  • DeMarco Murray-20 carries, 131 yds, 0 TD, 2 rec., 9 yds., and 0 TDThe Data=Murray was on the field for 52 of the teams 68 offensive plays, 23 of the team's 26 rushing plays.What to Make of It: Outside of one run by FB Lawrence Vickers and four rushes by QB Tony Romo, Murray had all the carries. RB Felix Jones was a non-factor in the rushing game as he was only on the field for 12 snaps, ten of them were passing plays and the other two he blocked on running plays. To state the obvious we see that DeMarco Murray is the primary back in the running game and as long as he can stay healthy he should put up top tier running back numbers.
  • Jonathan Dwyer- 9 carries, 43 yds, 0 TD, 2 rec., 11 yds, and 0TDThe Data= Dwyer was on the field for 42 of the teams 81 snaps, 12 were run plays the other 30 were pass playsWhat to Make of It: Dwyer was on the field eighteen more plays then Issac Redman. Redman did get three more carries than Dwyer, but finished with 23 less yards than Dwyer. The Data suggests that the Steelers already feel more comfortable having Dwyer on the field over Redman and if Dwyer continues to average three more yards per carry then it won't be long before Dwyer gets the majority of the team's carries, that is until RB Rashard Mendenhall makes his healthy return.
  • Michael Bush- 12 carries for 42 yds and 2 TDThe Data= Two touchdowns and just four less carries than Matt ForteWhat to Make of It: It appears if you own either Michael Bush and/or Matt Forte you should start each one, as both backs appear destined to put up starter worthy Fantasy numbers.
  • Trent Richardson- 19 rushes, 39 yds, 0 TD and 1 catch, 5 yds, 0 TDThe Data= Richardson led the Browns (and all players in the NFL) in percentage of team's touches with 59%What to Make of It: With such a high percentage of his team's touches you would think Richardson would have had more carries than 19, a number that bound to increase as he proves he's healthy. Richardson could be a decent buy low option as he does not looked poised to meet his draft day expectations, but could still provide some good fantasy value based on bulk opportunities.
  • Stephen Ridley- 21 rushes, 125 yds., 1 TD, 2 rec., 27 yds, and 0 TDThe Data=6.0 yds/carry, 40 snaps, 21 rushing playsWhat to Make of It: Ridley was only on the field for 40 of the teams 67 snaps. Ridleywas 24th in snaps amongst running backs, but fifth in rushing attempts avg 6 yds a carry (5.1 last year in 91 attempts). You have to believe there may be some regression in Ridley's totals, but as he proved this week, and last season, if giving the rock he can make some things happen in the running game.
  • Chris Johnson-11 carries for four yards, 0 TD, 6 rec., 47 yds, 0 TD     The Data= Johnson's four yards rushing was third worse by running backs who were involved in 25% or more of their team's snaps.                                                   What to Make of It:The limited rushing workload seems to have a carried from 2011 where Johnson had 10 games of 15 or less carries. In 2010, when Johnson rushed for over 1,300 yards he had only two games in which he had 15 or less carries. If Johnson's workload does not increase, Fantasy owners will continue to be disappointed more times then not.
Tight Ends
  • Brent Celek led all TE's in snaps with 89 (8 targets/4 rec.), Heath Miller second in snaps at 80 (7/4), Fred Davis was on the field for 76 snaps (4/2), followed by Kellen Davis at 75 (2/0), with Seattles' Zach Miller (3/3) and Oaklands' Brandon Myers (5/5) rounding out the top with 70 snaps.
  • After a down year last year Packers got off to a good start in 2012 as he lead all TE's with 11 targets, Brandon Pettigrew and Coby Fleener were each targeted 10 times, ahead of Jimmy Graham (9). then four TE's tied for fifth in targets with eight: Brent Celek, Owen Daniels, Antonio Gates, and another Lions TE Tony Scheffler.
  • Jermichael Finley also led all TE's in receptions with seven while five TE's tied for second with six catches: Coby Fleener, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and both of New Englands' top TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
  • 14 different tight ends caught a touchdown in the first game of the 2012 season compared to eleven in Week One last season.
Stats that Stand Out at the TE Position:
  • Colby Fleener- 6 catches, 82 yds., and 0 TDThe Data= 10 targets tied for most second most amongst tight endsWhat to Make of It: Like Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, Andrew Luck and Fleener look to have carried over their report from previously playing together and are poised to be a dangerous duo going forward. Surprisignly, Fleener went from 31.5% owned down to 25.7% in ESPN Fantasy leagues, so if by chance you find Fleener on the waiver wire don't hesitate, pick him up.
  • Martellus Bennett- 4 catches, 40 yds, and 1 TDThe Data=Bennett's four catches came on six targets as he averaged 10 yards per reception and interestingly he lined up in the slot on 42% of his snaps.What to Make of It: Former Giants TE Jake Ballardhad four or more receptions only four times in the eighteen games he played last season and finished the year with only four touchdowns. Bennett had more receiving experience then Ballard did in college, and could be in-line to play a larger, more productive part in the Giants' offense then Ballard did last year.
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