In the words of the Foo Fighters’ Dave Grohl, “Is Someone Getting the Best of You?” All fantasy owners really want is to get what we paid for, after all. We merely desire the best from our players, especially the ones we invested heavily in on draft day. However, some players are actually having a chuckle in the locker room as they steal money right from your pockets! Are they getting the best of you or are you getting the best of them? Well, Relative Position Value (RPV) is here to tell you what the top 25 third basemen have delivered and which ones should be returned to sender.
Player FPPG Raw RPV
Josh Donaldson 3B | TOR 95.5 0.623
Nolan Arenado 3B | COL 83.0 0.411
Manny Machado 3B | BAL 77.5 0.317
Eugenio Suarez 3B | CIN 75.5 0.283
Matt Carpenter 3B | STL 66.0 0.122
Kris Bryant 3B | CHC 65.5 0.113
Mike Moustakas 3B | KC 63.0 0.071
Yasmany Tomas 3B | ARI 63.0 0.071
Maikel Franco 3B | PHI 63.0 0.071
Daniel Murphy 3B | WAS 62.5 0.062
Josh Harrison 3B | PIT 62.0 0.054
Adrian Beltre 3B | TEX 61.0 0.037
Todd Frazier 3B | CHW 58.5 -0.006
Jake Lamb 3B | ARI 57.0 -0.031
Tyler White 3B | HOU 52.0 -0.116
Yunel Escobar 3B | LAA 50.0 -0.150
Brock Holt 3B | BOS 50.0 -0.150
Travis Shaw 3B | BOS 49.5 -0.159
Evan Longoria 3B | TB 49.0 -0.167
Eduardo Nunez 3B | MIN 47.0 -0.201
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 46.5 -0.210
David Freese 3B | PIT 46.5 -0.210
Nick Castellanos 3B | DET 43.0 -0.269
Matt Duffy 3B | SF 42.5 -0.278
David Wright 3B | NYM 42.0 -0.286
The “Big 3” have stayed put where they belong, but look at how valuable Eugenio Suarez has been this month. He’s nearly twice the value of Kris Bryant! Bryant went for first-tier pricing and is currently returning second-tier production. Todd Frazier’s slow start is slightly overblown and he remains right around the “fantasy league average” RPV (zero percent threshold is the equivalent of the fantasy league average production of a player). That number will increase as we turn the page to May and June. Yasmany Tomas has made the most of his at-bats with the Diamondbacks and he’s been quite the bargain YTD. Josh Harrison has been the other surprise in this group, bouncing back in a big way from a forgettable 2015 season.
Evan Longoria once again proves why paying for name value instead of production can leave you wanting more. In fact, most teams that missed out on the top tiers were better served taking flyers on Nick Castellanos, Daniel Murphy or the aforementioned Suarez. Kyle Seager’s negative RPV is depressing, but he’s a notoriously streaky player and you can rest assured his season-long roto totals will be on par with his career averages. Head-to-head owners, you should have known what you were getting into with Seager in the first place. I have no sympathy for you.
Now, let’s go a step further and add in the auction values for these players this offseason to see how cost effective their production has been. Auction values bear a reasonable facsimile to ADP, so even if your league was snake draft style the results here will be viable. Some players will be worth their investment, while others are taking a chunk out of your team budget with very little return on investment. Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) will tell us the whole story over the month of April at third base.
Player FPPG Raw RPV Salary RPV Per Dollar
Tyler White 3B | HOU 52.0 -0.116 $ 1 0.907
Travis Shaw 3B | BOS 49.5 -0.159 $ 1 0.903
David Freese 3B | PIT 46.5 -0.210 $ 1 0.896
Eduardo Nunez 3B | MIN 47.0 -0.201 $ 2 0.795
Jake Lamb 3B | ARI 57.0 -0.031 $ 3 0.746
Brock Holt 3B | BOS 50.0 -0.150 $ 3 0.711
Yasmany Tomas 3B | ARI 63.0 0.071 $ 4 0.694
Josh Harrison 3B | PIT 62.0 0.054 $ 4 0.689
Eugenio Suarez 3B | CIN 75.5 0.283 $ 5 0.681
David Wright 3B | NYM 42.0 -0.286 $ 3 0.655
Yunel Escobar 3B | LAA 50.0 -0.150 $ 4 0.614
Matt Duffy 3B | SF 42.5 -0.278 $ 5 0.432
Daniel Murphy 3B | WAS 62.5 0.062 $ 10 0.228
Mike Moustakas 3B | KC 63.0 0.071 $ 12 0.081
Nick Castellanos 3B | DET 43.0 -0.269 $ 9 -0.010
Evan Longoria 3B | TB 49.0 -0.167 $ 12 -0.181
Maikel Franco 3B | PHI 63.0 0.071 $ 17 -0.302
Adrian Beltre 3B | TEX 61.0 0.037 $ 19 -0.503
Matt Carpenter 3B | STL 66.0 0.122 $ 21 -0.535
Josh Donaldson 3B | TOR 95.5 0.623 $ 41 -1.071
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 46.5 -0.210 $ 21 -1.179
Nolan Arenado 3B | COL 83.0 0.411 $ 38 -1.209
Manny Machado 3B | BAL 77.5 0.317 $ 37 -1.303
Todd Frazier 3B | CHW 58.5 -0.006 $ 28 -1.309
Kris Bryant 3B | CHC 65.5 0.113 $ 33 -1.430
Fascinating how the list has practically inverted given a fair amount of players who were waiver wire adds, or $1 flyers who have been very productive in the early going. There was a misconception when it came to the third base position in 2016. In the "Fantasy Black Book," I discussed that the position as a whole wasn’t markedly better than its dismal 2015 appearance. Instead, it was more top heavy with Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant. The middle was still pretty soft. This lends itself to opportunity! When Tyler White explodes in April for 52 points out of nowhere, you have a unique situation where his owners are outperforming their opponents consistently and more efficiently based on cost. Ever wonder just how important hitting on a late-round bat or wire pick up can be? Well, RPVPD just quantified that importance. The only double digit salaried third basemen in the positive RPV right now are Daniel Murphy and Mike Moustakas.
Obviously, many of the names you see here will fade away as the season progresses. The Kyle Seager's of the world will climb up the ranks and the return on investments will level out as we approach the All-Star break. You are in no way “wrong” for investing in the elite guys. They’ll certainly win many fantasy league championships in 2016. But the notion that you had to have one was fiction. Also, if you were aggressive early on the waiver wire, you prevented other teams from snagging these guys and keeping pace with you and your luxury third base talent. One thing is certain, the term “value” is over used in fantasy, and not nearly understood to its full meaning.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.
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