#DFStudent: Heading Into Week 2 on FanDuel

With Week 1 officially in the books, I am officially in the red for 2015 NFL DFS on FanDuel. Granted, it’s just $6 in the red, but in the red nonetheless. But that’s okay for now. No, I’m not happy with losing, nor will I ever be, but as I stated in the inaugural piece of this series, this is about me learning the ropes and helping you learn the process alongside me. This is about becoming a better DFS player and what better way to learn than from our mistakes. So finishing out of the money in a $1 50/50 cash game and the $5 Fantasy Alarm Weekly Football Championship tournament isn’t the end of the world, by any means.

You can’t really be frustrated by a Week 1 loss when you’re new to the DFS game for football. I took some early lumps in baseball this year, but as the season progressed and I learned more about the necessary statistical research and lineup construction, things got a little easier. I was steadily winning in my cash games and I was also starting to place in the money of a number of GPP tournaments. I feel that the same can be achieved here in football with the more data we start to accumulate.

With regard to Week 1, though, there were a number of instances where top players either flopped or got hurt (Andrew Luck, Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson) while other lower-tiered players whom we expected strong days from (Ryan Tannehill, Justin Forsett, Brandin Cooks) didn’t quite put up the stats or points we were anticipating. That will, obviously, not always be the case moving forward. We should be able to rely on some of our favorite studs and once we have more data on passing and rushing defenses, we’ll be able to figure out exactly when and where we need to make that investment again. But enough of the pep talk. Let’s take a look at maybe where I went wrong with my lineups this past week.

Here’s a look at my lineup for a $1 50/50 that had 100 entries and how I matched up with the last money finisher:

My thought process going in seemed pretty solid. Matt Ryan was in a potential shootout with the Eagles and by most people’s accounts, was going to be playing from behind which meant a heavier reliance on Julio Jones. Perhaps I was underestimating the Eagles pass defense a little, but Ryan was the eighth-highest scoring quarterback this week and had a decent price point. I paid $800 more than this guy did for Tannehill, but I did get almost seven points more out of the position and I don’t think that $800 hurt me in the selection of my other players. As for Jones, well, he was the top receiver this week, thank you very much.

I believed in Adrian Peterson heading into this season and had zero faith in a 49ers run defense that was decimated by offseason movement. It didn’t work out. Moving forward, I think Peterson will get rolling, but I don’t think I made a bad decision heading in. While DeMarco Murray put up more points, I don’t think he was a lock to do so with all those mouths to feed in Philly. It just didn’t work out in my favor. Maybe if you thought Murray was going to just chew up the clock and get extra yardage, he was a better call for the price point, but I thought that’s why they had Ryan Mathews.

Our second running backs were a big disparity. Both Doug Martin and Chris Ivory were facing a pair of run defenses that were horrible last year and I opted to spend a little more because Martin looked strong in the preseason. I did not anticipate the Buccaneers defense to get shredded so badly, so call this the lesson learned. Moving forward, I will certainly give any player facing the Bucs an extra-long look.

In my opinion, the receiver position is the deepest and probably where you will be able to find the biggest bargains. I went much cheaper with second and third wideouts and both plays paid off. Were there some better bargains available? Sure, but this is not where my team faltered.

Nor did I falter at the tight end position. Sure, there were some crazy points picked up and while I didn’t pay up for Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce, I can’t fault my belief in Jordan Cameron here as he put up a solid day. I didn’t believe in the talk that Tyler Eifert was going to play such a big role nor was I going to look at Austin Seferian-Jenkins. I didn’t spend a bundle but I got back a decent return.

The kicking game is where I faltered the most. One point from your kicker is not going to cut it. I figured the Raiders offense would sputter in the red zone but I didn’t even remotely think that they would be shut out. From now on, it’s kickers in high-octane offenses. I won’t pay through the nose, but I will use a kicker in a much more reliable offense.

As for my defense, I love the Dolphins schedule so much, that I will likely be using them often through the first few weeks of the season.

And just for curiosity sake, here’s how my team matched up with the points leader for this particular cash game:

He bargain-shopped at QB a little more and paid up for a second quality receiver, so that should be something to note when I start to look at the match-ups for next week. Again, I don’t think I made horrible choices here. I paid up for a high-end QB, a high-end RB and a high-end WR and then filled in with some decent supplements. It was a bad choice at kicker that cost me, so if I can rectify that, I think I stand a good chance at winning some of these cash games moving forward.

Now while I said in the first piece that I would stick to cash games only for now, heeding the advice of Jeff Mans and earn my entrance fees into the tourneys, I felt compelled to at least play in my own site’s game. So what the hell, right? Take a shot? Based on research and learning about lineup construction, I figured I had better odds at winning than my wife does when she buys her scratchers at the grocery store each week, right?

Here’s my lineup for the $5 GPP with a look at both the winner and the last money finish:

Now I know, from playing DFS baseball, that you really need to hit with players who have low ownership percentages while also keeping pace with some of the high-scoring studs in whom many will invest. In looking at the lineup comparisons with both the last money finish and the overall winner, it appears I might need to go cheaper at QB and RB and spread the money around better to wideouts. Of course, again, who knew Adrian Peterson and Sebastian Janikowski were both going to eat a dick this week? My receivers weren’t bad at all and Jamaal Charles was a nice play with a low ownership percentage, so I’m not really kicking myself here. What I am doing though, is looking at the winning strategies implemented and the lineup choices made so that I can learn what works and where I need to make adjustments.

Heading into Week 2, I at least have some solid data to sift through. I will be looking at defensive rankings – yards allowed for passing and rushing, as well as how each team stacked up against individual receivers. Fantasy Alarm is currently putting together an massive spreadsheet with all of that data as well as full offensive stats which include snap counts, touches, targets and red zone numbers. Once that spreadsheet is available, I will link to it. In the meantime, I will be utilizing a number of stat pages around the interwebz to gather my data.

It’s a little early to start lineup construction, but here is where I am starting as I look at the Week 2 match-ups.

Defenses with Most Passing Yards Allowed

Defenses with Most Rushing Yards Allowed

Defenses with Highest QB Ratings Against and Pass TD Allowed

Just as I did last week, I will update this piece Thursday morning with several lineup possibilities and I will tweet out when that update is done so follow me @rotobuzzguy.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!

UPDATE: So many options. My brain hurts. For my cash game this week -- a $1 50/50 -- I'm trying to follow what I've learned from this past week. I'll pay up at QB, but I'm going to see about playing some soft match-ups and go with cheaper running backs. I'm not going to use anyone from the Thursday game, so I have a couple of days to think about it, but so far I'm toying with names like Chris Ivory, Bishop Sankey, Ameer Abdullah and Doug Martin. That should leave me with some real nice options at WR and might even allow me to pay up for Rob Gronkowski. In truth, I'm still tilting towards Greg Olsen and Jordan Cameron, but if I've got the money, the depth at WR might just push me into Gronk. As for receivers, the pool is deep and sexy. Names like Julio Jones, Odell Beckham and A.J. Green litter the high-priced options while Jordan Matthews, Terrance Williams, Steve Smith, John Brown and even Larry Fitzgerald seem to be nice options this week. Williams migh tbe a must this week with Dez Bryant out. I feel like he can also be a nice option in the Fantasy Alarm Tournament on FanDuel as many might fade him due to a potentially high owenership percentage.

As for my entry into the tournament, I feel like I'm going to be throwing a lot of darts. If you caught my Targets piece or the DFS WR Coach piece, you'll see a number of favorite choices that don't cost an arm and a leg which will let me pay up at a few spots. Again, thinking about Gronk; thinking about Julio Jones, thinking about Drew Brees. But I'm not paying up at RB again and while last week continues to teach me that I should spread the dough around the receivers, I feel like an elite WR and Gronk is just as good. We'll see.......