Minnesota Twins
The Twins are up against Michael Fulmer , who is a decent real-life pitcher, but not someone you have to avoid. This season, Fulmer is giving up a .352 wOBA to lefties, along with 1.71 HR/9 to them as well. He is much better vs right-handed hitters, so you want to avoid them, and load up all the lefties if you can. Fulmer has given up six home runs, and yes, you guessed it, five of those six home runs have come vs left-handed hitters. This means we are looking at some decent home runs upside for the Twins, on a day we have some nice hitting weather in the Twin Cities. The best part about this stack is the fact they aren’t too expensive. The most expensive player for the Twins on FanDuel is under $4K, while on DraftKings, he is right at $4K. Look to roster Eduardo Escobar , Eddie Rosario , Max Kepler , Logan Morrison or Jake Cave.
Houston Astros
The Astros are looking to be the “chalk” stack of the early slate since they are in a great spot. They are up against Jeff Samardzija , who doesn’t look like the pitcher we know him to be after starting the year on the DL. The Astros come in with an implied run total sitting at 5.04, which is highest on the early slate, so you should certainly have some interest in them. When it comes to the Astros, it’s really just a salary game, on who you can fit into your lineup, and how many of them. The names of who you should be targeting are, José Altuve , Carlos Correa , Alex Bregman , George Springer , or Yuli Gurriel and Marwin González for some salary savings. Having the highest implied run total and being the “best” offense on the slate will make them popular, but we are only dealing with a four-game slate, so might be OK to eat a bit of chalk this afternoon.
St. Louis Cardinals
Love the home run potential from the Cardinals today, as they are in a great spot to have a few this game. They are up against Jakob Junis, who is giving up 1.40 HR/9 to lefties and 2.05 HR/9 to righties this season. Those are some rough numbers to look at if you are a Royals fan, and things likely won’t end too well for him today. Junis is giving up a 36% hard contact rate this season and is truly having some ups and downs as a fly ball pitcher. No pun intended. The power bats for the Cardinals are in a good spot and yet another team who isn’t that expensive, outside of one or two hitters. Matt Carpenter is starting to heat up and continues to be too cheap across the industry, so look for him. Tommy Pham has a .209 ISO this season vs right-handed pitchers, so he is always a threat to knock one out. Marcell Ozuna clearly isn’t having the best year, but last season he had an ISO up at .268 vs RHP, he has the historic success, just not showing this year, but I still do like him today vs Junis.
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