After an absolutely phenomenal opening week to the season where I went 6-1 with my cash game lineups, I began the week as confident as ever. Still, I’ve been down on this road before, so I am fully aware that there is a ton of variance when it comes to DFS MLB, and I cannot expect to maintain an 80% or higher cash rate throughout the season.

As long as I can stay above 60%, it means I’m maintaining profitability. I want to reiterate that I am not a high-stakes player. A lot of the money that I’m winning in DFS is going straight to my college tuition or paying off my undergraduate loans. Consistency is huge. The main reason I play so many cash games is because it helps me maintain my bankroll. I don’t have the biggest bankroll because I am constantly withdrawing whenever I can, so if I’m ever taking some bigger chances as some GPPs, it’s usually when my bankroll is at it’s strongest.

With that said, nothing really changes when it comes to my strategy. I will continue to make some bold calls with my lineups if I think it gives me an edge. Yes, it some of my plays could make me look like an idiot if it backfires, but the player pool available in DFS MLB is large enough where you don’t have to go with the “chalk” plays all the time.

I have a little more time than usual this week, so I will be playing some of the split slates in the middle of the week. As long as I can stay around 60% with my cash rate this week, I will be happy with my results.

Just to reiterate my process from last week. I am going to be sticking with FanDuel for my cash games in order to make sure my thought process is completely devoted to their scoring system and salaries. Additionally, I will  stick to the 100-man 50/50 tournaments on FanDuel. These contests will generally have lower cash lines than the bigger double ups, and will have much lower cash lines if you compare them to the bigger multi-entry double ups. On top of that, I’ve noticed that the cash lines tend to be a lot higher for the higher dollar entries (e.g. $1 50/50s will have a lower cash line than a $25 50/50).

Ultimately, I ended up playing on nine different slates throughout the week. Let’s see what happened!

Monday 4/11 Late Slate

 

 

Points Scored: 135

Cash Line: 126

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 1-0

Season Record: 7-1

Lineup reasoning:

Scherzer was undoubtedly the chalk play of the night going up against Bud Norris, who many of the Nationals have absolutely crushed throughout their careers. The main “crusher” was Zimmerman, who many of “Team BvP” pegged as the must play of the night. I added a red hot Murphy to get that nice combo in the middle of the Nats lineup.  Another target that many will deem as a curious choice for a cash lineup is Billy Hamilton. I mentioned Hamilton’s history against Jon Lester, and I felt he would a) definitely get on base, and b) definitely steal at least a base if he got on. Lester’s inability to throw to first base was exposed last season, so I am trying to take advantage of it by going with both Hamilton, and a cheap Zack Cosart who had been hitting the ball well, and leading off. As for Mesoraco, I simply went there because of the lack of options with just a 5-game slate. I really thought the Reds would punish Lester tonight.

What Went Right:

So Lester didn’t get punished, and Hamilton didn’t steal a base, but he hit a home run instead. It wasn’t out of the question considering Billy was hitting .800 against Lester coming into the game. Murphy also went deep, while Zimmerman piled up the points throughout the night.

What Went Wrong:

Sadly, Hamilton got on base once, but had the pitcher on second, so there was no way for him to steal a base. Also, Mesoraco is clearly struggling, and probably out of my consideration set for the next few games. Beyond that, it’s a shame that Fowler couldn’t do anything tonight, especially considering how well he performs against lefties. Oh, and I almost forgot, Zack Cosart was injured after the first inning, so all of that upside went downhill pretty quickly.

Tuesday 4/12 Late Slate

 

Points Scored: 56

Cash Line: 105

Result: LOSS

Grand Slam Result: LOSS

Weekly Record: 1-1

Season Record: 7-2

Lineup Reasoning:

Just a little bit of skill gets thrown out the window when Coors Field comes into play. I’ve had a good amount of success, including winning the Grand Slam on a night with a game at Coors Field, so I’m a bit indifferent with Coors as far as DFS is concerned. Still, with an O/U of 11, it would be very hard to ignore it tonight. The top pitchers of the night were clearly, Noah Syndergaard, Jose Fernandez, and Corey Kluber, but I had my eyes set on Hector Santiago.

As an Angels fan, I was able to watch him pitch throughout the spring, and in the season opener, and to be honest, I thought he looked amazing. Santiago was an All-Star last season, before coming down to Earth post All-Star Break. After weighing my options, it was really down to either Syndergaard or Santiago. I decided against going with Thor, mainly because of the $3400 price savings, and because I felt Thor’s chances of a win was a lot lower than it usually is because he was facing Fernandez.  The idea here is similar to how I used Velasquez last week, even though he was one of the biggest underdogs of the day against the Mets. I could use the extra salary to bump up my hitting, and even if Velasquez/Santiago didn’t work out, I thought my hitters would have a shot at bailing me out. I was able to pile up four different hitters at Coors to go with Chris Davis who had a great matchup against Clay Buchholz. I would imagine that those who do pay up for Syndergaard will only be able to fit one or two high-priced bats. I was fortunate enough to put together a lineup with five.

What Went Right:

Uh, nothing really went “right”. I guess Thor not getting the win points was something that went right.

What Went Wrong:

Yikes, EVERYTHING went wrong tonight. Even though Santiago went 7.2 innings, he couldn’t keep Marcus Semien in check, and his super high K/rate led to just three K’s in those 7.2 innings. Even with that said, it was only a 34-point difference between Santiago and Syndergaard, who threw 12 strikeouts. Unfortunately, none of my bats cooperated. All four Coors bats basically fell into landmines, and I wasn’t able to rebound from this disaster. And yeah, as I mentioned in the beginning of the article, this is the kind of night where my bold play makes me look like an idiot. Still, a loss is a loss no matter if you’re 96th or 51st.

Wednesday 4/13 Early Slate

 

Points Scored: 102

Cash Line: 96

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 2-1

Season Record: 8-2

Lineup Reasoning:

Only three games to work with in the early slate, and on paper, it appeared that Taijuan Walker was the guy to roster. Biggest favorite, and biggest “K” upside of the six starts, but looking at his past numbers against the Rangers, I didn’t like his chances. In fact, many of the Rangers absolutely dominated him last season. I decided to take my chances on this slate, with the idea that too many people would be in on Walker, and I’d be able to take advantage of some low ownership from Logan Verrett. I really felt good about him. He had a solid Spring, dirt cheap on FanDuel, and he isn’t a well-known name. On top of that, I thought he had a great matchup against the Marlins. I’d be able to load up my hitting with basically every single person I outlined in my Hitting Coach article (in this case, a lot of good BvP matchups, and values), and added Mike Trout to sweeten the deal.

What Went Right:

Verrett had a wonderful outing, but sadly didn’t get the win. Still, at close to 6x value, it was much more than I could ask for. Walker also didn’t have the greatest outing, but he performed much better than I thought he would. Regardless, Verrett was the better play, and really was this lineup’s anchor, because it helped me pay up for Trout AND Cruz. While Cruz didn’t do much, Trout definitely did, and that was enough for the cash.

What Went Wrong

This was the day I started to realize that the FanDuel cash lines tend to be a lot tighter now with their new scoring system. None of the guys I picked in the Rangers/Mariners game did anything. Both Fielder and Odor had great histories against Walker, but it wasn’t enough to do anything significant.

Wednesday 4/13 Late Slate

 

Points Scored: 159

Cash Line: 141

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 3-1

Season Record: 9-2

Lineup Reasoning:

I felt that pitching was going to be a very difficult decision tonight. I felt that the two biggest targets were probably Carlos Carrasco and John Lackey. Carrasco has a good history against the Rays, and gets to face them when most of their bats were relatively cold. Lackey didn’t necessarily have a good history against the Reds, but he was the biggest favorite of the night at -195. I leaned to Carrasco because of his previous history, and because I felt he had some big strikeout upside, while Lackey isn’t really much of a strikeout pitcher at this stage of his career.

Once again, I needed to get exposure to Coors, and rostering Jeremy Hazelbaker at just $2300 was going to help. I went with the combination of Ben Paulsen, who finally got a start against a right-handed pitcher, and Nolan Arenado, who had some lopsided numbers against Jake Peavy. I also liked Justin Upton to the point where he was a must play for me going up against Ryan Vogelsong. The one guy who I was really up in the air about was Joc Pederson, who was batting 8th in the lineup. I kept him in mainly because of his power upside, and because I really liked his matchup against Rubby De La Rosa.

What Went Right:

Carrasco was definitely the right decision as my starting pitcher. He dominated the Rays the entire night, and left with 8 innings, 1 ER, and 8 K’s to go with the “W”. Also, Nolan Arenado went “double dong” and was absolutely huge on a night where he was less than 30% owned (which, makes sense considering he was $5000).

What Went Wrong:

I had no clue this would happen, but Jerad Eickhoff ended up being around 50% owned, and he actually out performed Carrasco with 60 huge points, giving him close to 10x value. I still don’t really know why his ownership was that high, but I’m assuming it has to do with people not believing in the Padres, who had been atrocious. Vegas didn’t exactly support that as a play, but they didn’t support Carrasco either, so I can’t hate on it too much. Beyond that, Joc did fine, but I was disappointed that Yan Gomes couldn’t do anything off of Matt Moore, and Upton struggled to do anything against Vogelsong. I could have his salary to pay for Parra, who was at the same price, and got 15.

Thursday 4/14 Early Slate

 

 

Points Scored: 216

Cash Line: 176

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 4-1

Season Record: 10-2

Lineup Reasoning:

When you consider that I loved Vince Velasquez as a big underdog against the Mets, you better be sure that I loved him as a favorite against the terrible Padres. Velasquez, Carpenter (BvP), and Hazelbaker (price/matchup) were easily the three must plays of the day. I also really liked Jose Lobaton’s savings, and figured he’d be a lock to play considering he hasn’t had many starts this season, and because he was 4-for-8 (.500 AVG) with two homers, five RBIs, and zero strikeouts against Julio Teheran in 2015. Everyone else? Coors Field, baby! Matt Cain isn’t the dominating pitcher he once was, and Jorge De La Rosa was lit up his first two starts. I leaned towards the Rockies bats because of price, and their recent play.

What Went Right:

Just about everything went right. Velasquez had 16 strikeouts in a complete game shutout, and I also had four position players who got 24 points or more. I loved the fact that Reynolds had such low ownership. He had a good history against Cain, and everyone was off the bandwagon after his bad first week of the season. I also loved DJ LeMahieu’s low ownership. I was able to view the Rockies lineup prior to roster lock, and I’m sure that helped contribute to playing LeMahieu and Reynolds, when most people were off of them.

What Went Wrong:

Well, Lobaton didn’t play, but I guess I don’t mind this because he was the only catcher available at $2100, and I wouldn’t have been able to play some of the guys I played if it wasn’t for him. Also, Hunter Pence let me down even though he had a good history against Jose De La Rosa. I didn’t play the Grand Slam, but I was able to get some nice cashes in the $5 Rally and the $2 Squeeze.

Thursday 4/14 Late Slate

Points Scored: 109

Cash Line: 111

Result: LOSS

Grand Slam Result: LOSS

Weekly Record: 4-2

Season Record: 10-3

Lineup Reasoning:

Wasn’t really in love with this slate, mainly because I didn’t like ANY of the pitchers. Literally, ANY of them. It really came down to Cole Hamels, Marcus Stroman, or Jason Hammel. I went with Hamels because he came into the game undefeated at Globe Life Park, and because I felt he had some good strikeout upside against the powerful, but strikeout prone Orioles.

The rest of my choices were a lot of the plays I outlined in my Hitting Coach article. I loved Enrique Hernandez against the southpaw and Adrian Beltre against Chris Tillman (.500 AVG w/a homer) in particular.

What Went Right:

Was able to get some very nice outings from Kike, Tulo, Hosmer, and Brito. Tulo was a really nice play, especially at just $3000, and getting a homer out of him was pretty huge. Brito was a huge value, just from stealing a base, and scoring a run.

What Went Wrong:

Yeah, so going Hamels ended up costing me money. Cash lines were ultra close, so basically any of the other pitchers I mentioned would have gotten me cashes in all of my entries. Probably need to keep in mind that you just don’t play with a pitcher who is facing a team that is as hot as the Orioles. Also, Beltre missed a home run by a few feet, and Rasmus didn’t do anything (he’s so expensive now, that you can’t really afford a bad night from him).

Friday 4/15 Late Slate

 

 

Points Scored: 115

Cash Line: 112-to-118

Result: PUSH

Grand Slam Result: LOSS

Weekly Record: 4-2-1

Season Record: 10-3-1

Lineup Reasoning:

All the big boys were available tonight, and that included Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, and Zack Greinke. I narrowed it down to Sale and Greinke. Yes, Joe Ross was in play going up against the Phillies, but I just felt it wasn’t as necessary to go that direction tonight. I preferred Sale over Greinke, but I definitely liked Greinke’s price. He kept Padres hitters below the Mendoza line last season, and averaged over 7 K’s in those games. That was enough for me to go Greinke in my cash games.

As for my hitting, boy was this tough. 14 games in play meant there was so many hitters I liked from this slate. I stuck with my main value play of the day, Justin Smoak, in order to free up some salary to pay for some of my more pricey guys that I was in on. This included Lucroy, Lindor, Peralta, and Trumbo. I added Pillar because I liked him in the leadoff spot in Fenway, which happened to have the most expected runs of the night.

What Went Right:

While Sale would have been a better play, Greinke did enough to give me a chance to win. Though, I do fear that his strikeout upside is going to be minimal this season. Additionally, Trumbo his two Trumbomb’s in Arlington to carry my hitters. I also decided to go with Yunel Escobar as a bit of a safe, value play to counter some of the risk I was taking with guys like Smoak and Pillar. It definitely worked there because Escobar continued to pile on the points.

What Went Wrong:

I am listing this lineup as a “tie” because I basically broke even with this lineup. Cash lines definitely varied tonight. But anyway, the lineup just had one too many bad showings. Smoak was horrible, and is clearly off his game. Lindor had his first bad game of the week. And Peralta couldn’t do anything, even though I marked him as one of my better BvP plays of the night. And oh, what could have been! I almost went with one of my other favorite plays, Enrique Hernandez, who went double dong against MadBum. I decided that Smoak was a safer play given the high run total at Fenway, and boy, was I wrong.

Saturday 4/16 Early Slate

 

Points Scored: 150

Cash Line: 141

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 5-2-1

Season Record: 11-3-1

Lineup Reasoning:

We are reaching a point where it definitely seems like FanDuel’s pricing is getting very tight. Jake Arrieta was a must play in the early slate. Yes, I know David Price was going for the Red Sox, but he had been getting crushed, and you’d have to be crazy to roster him against the Blue Jays with Arrieta available. Going Arrieta meant going cheap elsewhere. Had to go Holliday after he had the two homers the previous night, and had a good matchup against LHP Brandon Finnegan of the Reds. Iannetta, Pujols, Escobar, and Gutierrez were also big value plays at each position. I originally had Montero at catcher, but he got the day off, so I had to pivot to Iannetta, and was able to pay up for Kipnis at second. I also stretched and found a good sleeper in Trevor Plouffe, whose PITCHf/x values really matched up well against Jered Weaver.

What Went Right:

Arrieta did more than I expected him to, but sadly, everyone else was in on him too. My “sleeper” in Plouffe ended up being a pretty chalky play, but I’ll take it given his huge day, including a double and homer off of Weaver. Escobar’s BvP vs. Sonny Gray worked out. And Jason Kipnis remained hot.

What Went Wrong:

I think this tied one of my worst days last week where I had three big fat DONUTS. Iannetta and Gutierrez, both lefty killers, couldn’t do anything against CC Sabathia. My biggest fear is that I’m going to be off of Gutierrez against lefties, and he’s just going to go bananas. Also, Albert Pujols remained inconsistent, unable to do anything against Ricky Nolasco. Pretty fortunate I was able to get those two nice games from Kipnis and Escobar, because this was on track for a loss.  

Saturday 4/16 Late Slate

Points Scored: 102

Cash Line: 119

Result: LOSS

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Weekly Record: 5-3-1

Season Record: 11-4-1

Lineup Reasoning:

Not many reliable options at pitcher on this slate beyond Max Scherzer, and considering he was going to face a terrible Phillies lineup, it made my decision a lot easier. I knew he’d he highly owned, so I needed to perform well with my hitting. Colby Lewis of the Rangers had a terrible matchup against the Orioles, but it was important to find the right mix of guys because there was no way I was going to be able to afford Crush and Machado. I decided to go with Davis, and the hottest hitter in baseball in Mark Trumbo. They cost $7900 combined, so I needed to mix in some value throughout my lineup. A.J. Pierzynski was batting over .800 against Tom Koehler, so that was an easy decision at catcher. I liked Utley and Turner’s matchup against Cueto, so those guys were relatively easy choices at under $3000. But I had to stretch my lineup and go with Jonathan Villar and Ryan Rua. I liked Villar much more than Rua because of his recent play, and his matchup against Jon Niese. As for Rua, I liked that he was batting 6th, and I didn’t mind his matchup against Gallardo, who I felt was going to struggle against his former teammates.

What Went Right:

Again, Scherzer didn’t disappoint, throwing up 51 points. Wasn’t the greatest, but with so many risky plays, he did what I needed him to. Chris Davis hit a home run, but sadly also had some really high ownership. Pierzynski and Turner also did a fine job.

What Went Wrong:

You just can’t afford to have too many zeroes, and that’s what happened here. Rua left three runners stranded in scoring position, and wasn’t able to get good contact against Gallardo. Plus, Trumbo needed to do much more for the price I paid. And lastly, I obviously wanted exposure to Nationals/Phillies game tonight, but I suppose I could have done much better than Jayson Werth. His donut was basically the nail in the coffin for this lineup.

Sunday 4/17 All-Day Slate

 

 

Points Scored: 93

Cash Line: 96

Result: LOSS

Grand Slam Result: LOSS

Weekly Record: 5-4-1

Season Record: 11-5-1

Lineup Reasoning:

I’m staring at this lineup right now, and I’m just thinking of how much of a weirdo I am. This slate gave us the option of going plenty of different directions at pitcher, but I felt the safest options were Juan Nicasio (yes, really) or Kenta Maeda. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Nicasio, even though the Tigers torched him in his last outing. Regardless, the Brewers are not the Tigers, and they didn’t even have Ryan Braun in their lineup. I liked Nicasio’s strikeout upside, and felt Maeda had the tougher matchup against the Giants. I stayed away from Kluber and Lester, mainly because of matchups. Kluber has been vulnerable so far this season, and the Mets were starting to turn it on. I just didn’t like Lester because of his issues with throwing to first base. I felt that the Rockies would be aggressive, and their aggression could easily throw his game off.

As for my hitting, I focused on some BvP plays (Mike Trout vs. Kyle Gibson), some matchups (Matt Carpenter/Stephen Piscotty vs. Jon Moscot), some splits (Yoenis Cespedes vs. RHP/Carlos Santana vs. LHP), and exploiting Jon Lester (Tony Wolters and DJ LeMahieu). Wolters had stolen three bases in his last two games, and packs a lot of speed at the catcher position. It was tough paying up for Trout and Cespedes, but I decided to go with them over Jose Bautista, who I also liked, but didn’t like the unpredictability of Steven Wright’s knuckleball.

What Went Right:

Nicasio had a rough 4th inning, and if it weren’t for that, he would have hit 50 easily. 39 points was perfectly fine, and gave me 5x value. Yeah, Maeda got 51 and Lester got 49, but I don’t mind my decision, especially because it was difficult for me to predict Maeda easily getting the win, and getting seven strikeouts. Also, Carpenter was able to go deep against Moscot.  Trout and Cespedes had fine games, but definitely had the potential to do much more.

What Went Wrong:

Oh boy, considering the cash line was around 94 to 96 in all my cash games, those zeroes are absolutely killing me. Lester controlled the game against the Rockies, and with David Ross throwing out two runners, it really calmed him down in some of his tougher situations. It also probably led to Wolters not attempting a stolen base. Ultimately, three big donuts led to my demise. All I needed as a lousy single or walk from LeMahieu, Santana, or Piscotty, but it just didn’t happen. I actually still can’t believe Santana couldn’t get on base against a lefty, but what can you do?

In the end, I ended my week at 5-4-1 (55.5% cash rate). While I definitely missed out on my goal of 60%, I was still above .500, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Regardless, my season record is now 11-5-1 (68.75% cash rate). Again, as long as I can stay in the 60-65% range, I’m going to be happy because it means I’m staying profitable.

There are a few obstacles in the weeks to come though. I have less than a month left in my semester in business school, and things are getting busier and busier on my end. This will definitely mean less and less split slates for me, but I promise you guys I will continue to give it my all for my Hitting Coach articles. Talk to you guys, next week!

If you have any questions, you can always reach me on Twitter @kle18. Have a great week!