Just because it’s Easter Sunday, it doesn’t mean you can’t have some betting action mixed in with your chocolate bunnies and marshmallow Peeps, right? Time for the MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for Sunday, March 31. It wasn’t a great Saturday as we missed a couple of prop bets that teetered right on the edge but we also got some disappointment from the Dodgers bullpen and some unexpected runs in the Guardians/Athletics game. We did hit on the Twins money line and Ke’Bryan Hayes’ total bases prop, so it wasn’t a total wash out and we’re still in the green for the first three days of the 2024 MLB season. Time to replenish the bankroll here on Sunday.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 2-4
  • Season Record: 11-7
  • Bankroll: +3.09 units


MLB Best Bets for Today: Easter Sunday, March 31 

Twins vs. Royals Prediction Today, 3/31 

We spent a significant amount of time targeting against Royals right-hander Brady Singer last season and it paid off handsomely as he posted a dismal 5.22 ERA with a diminished strikeout rate and increased number of home runs allowed. Tough to not go back to that well again as the Twins, have taken the first two games of the series and have posted a .330 wOBA with a .187 ISO against righties, dating back to the beginning of last season. It also doesn’t help Singer’s case when you look at how bad his spring was, posting numbers much more comparable to last year’s totals than they are to his 2022 breakout campaign.

On the mound for the Twins is righty Bailey Ober who shined bright for the Twins in his first season throwing over 140 innings. He posted a little more than a strikeout per inning and while he gave up a few more homers, he generated more swings-and-misses, pitched to less contact and was equally dominant against righties as we was lefties. The Royals are lacking firepower in their lineup outside of Bobby Witt and have posted the fifth-lowest wOBA against righties, dating back to April of last season.



Nationals vs. Reds Prediction Today, 3/31 

The Reds were well on their way to another victory yesterday until the bullpen crumbled and they were let down by Lucas Sims and Alexis Diaz who allowed four earned runs in the eighth and ninth innings. Very reliable relievers, normally, so we’re not going to let it shake our confidence in this Reds team, especially facing Jake Irvin and a soft-hitting Nationals team. Though he’s coming off a decent spring, it’s worth noting his 4.75 xFIP in March is more representative of where he is at and he’s also lost some of that ground ball rate he posted last season. That’s dangerous in Great American Ballpark, especially when you’ve routinely struggled against left-handed hitters, of which the Reds starting lineup has several.

Right-hander Nick Martinez will take the mound for the Reds against a Nats offense that posted a soft .305 wOBA with a .140 ISO against righties between last season and the first two games. But what I like about Martinez the most is that cutter he continues to improve. He posted a 53.8 ground ball rate last season which is exactly what you need to be successful in such a small park. That, and an increasing swinging-strike rate. If he can contain the lefty bats in today’s lineup, the Reds offense should do the rest.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Easter Sunday, March 31